Hotline’s primary primer: Texas

WHEN: Polls open at 8 a.m. ET on March 3 and close at 8 p.m. ET. Results can be found here.

BIG PICTURE: Texas is ground zero for a myriad of converging trends this cycle. A marquee Senate primary tests the limits of fidelity to President Trump on one side, and on the other, whether Democrats want to lead with an outspoken fighter or a preacher seeking consensus. Texas kicked off the redistricting arms race last summer when Republicans redrew five districts in their favor. Nine members of the Texas delegation chose not to seek reelection, with two running for Senate, another for attorney general, and six opting to retire. Two of those seats, Texas-34 and -35, have competitive primaries. The gubernatorial primaries don’t have significant impacts on the leading candidates. With such tight races, 2028 presidential hopefuls have largely stayed away—but they are likely to jump in once the party nominee is decided.

SENATE: The main act

GOP FIELD: Sen. John Cornyn (R), state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-38)

• ANALYSIS: Cornyn is in the fight of his political life against Paxton. To Senate Republicans’ loss, Trump hasn’t weighed in on the GOP contest, prolonging the most expensive primary in the country. Cornyn and his Senate GOP allies warn that a Paxton primary win could substantially increase the cost of the general election. Hunt is attempting to outrun Cornyn for second place in the primary, but nonpartisan polling shows most Texas Republicans preferring a statewide leader in the primary.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD: State Rep. James Talarico (D) and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-30)

• ANALYSIS: Crockett’s last-minute entrance in December has thrust a national spotlight onto the Democratic primary. Despite a cordial January debate, the Crockett-Talarico matchup has gotten ugly in the past few weeks. Much of the tension stems from the primary’s emphasis on electability, pitting Crockett’s base-growing ambitions against Talarico’s reach-across-the-aisle strategy. Talarico has outraised and outpaced Crockett on air this cycle, but the congresswoman’s nationwide notoriety could be enough to sour the state legislator’s head start.
• COOK RATING: Likely Republican

GOVERNOR: Clear fields straight to the general election

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) have both cleared their respective fields.

• ANALYSIS: Hinojosa faces an uphill battle against the three-term governor. She’s centered her campaign on tying Abbott to billionaires and corporate interests, while attacking his school-voucher program. Limited polling of the head-to-head matchup found Hinojosa within striking range, trailing Abbott by single digits. But Abbott’s war chest will be hard to compete against. He entered the midterm year with $106 million on hand, dwarfing Hinojosa’s $661,100.
• COOK RATING: Solid Republican

HOUSE: Redistricting shook up several races

Texas-34: A matchup between former federal prosecutor Eric Flores (R) and former Rep. Mayra Flores (R) will determine Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s opponent in the southernmost seat in the state. Eric Flores won the coveted Trump endorsement after Mayra Flores lost her last two elections to Gonzalez.

• ANALYSIS: This is one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities across the country, and they’ll want Eric Flores to advance to November to give them the best shot at doing so.
• COOK RATING: Toss Up

Texas-35: The open San Antonio-area seat favors Republicans, but Democrats have kept an eye on it as they prepare for a favorable environment.

• ANALYSIS: Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (R) has the Trump endorsement, but Abbott backed state Rep. John Lujan (R). 2024 Texas-28 nominee Jay Furman (R) is also in the race, meaning it very well could end in a runoff. On the Democratic side, Bexar County Deputy Sheriff Johnny Garcia appears the favorite of the money-spenders in D.C., but Marine Corps veteran John Lira and a few others are running, meaning this race could also go to a runoff.
• COOK RATING: Likely Republican

SAFE OPEN RACES: Retirements or runs for higher office by Reps. Morgan Luttrell (R-08), Michael McCaul (R-10), Jodey Arrington (R-19), Chip Roy (R-21), Troy Nehls (R-22), Jasmine Crockett (D-30), Marc Veasey (D-33), and Lloyd Doggett (D-37) will produce a new crop of freshman members.

THREATENED INCUMBENTS: High-noon showdowns

• Texas-23. The alleged affair between Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-23) and a former staffer who died by self-immolation in the wake of the alleged scandal could hit hard in a race with a strong primary challenger already lined up.
• Texas-33. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-32) is at risk as former Rep. Colin Allred (D) hopes to reclaim his old Dallas-area seat. Allred, with name recognition from his time representing the area and his two Senate runs, is the likely favorite in this seat.
• Texas-18. Reps. Al Green (D-09) and Christian Menefee (D-18) are battling it out in a member-on-member primary spurred by redistricting. Menefee took office last month in a special election. Polling finds Menefee enjoying a healthy lead in a race defined by generational change.
• Texas-02. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) faces right-wing state Rep. Steve Toth (R). Crenshaw has vastly outspent Toth, but he has also made plenty of enemies among the GOP primary electorate.

A HELPING HAND: Which 2028 hopefuls are getting involved

Progressives have taken an interest. Rep. Ro Khanna of California endorsed Crockett for Senate, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York endorsed Johnson in Texas-33. While California Gov. Gavin Newsom has steered clear of endorsing any candidates in the state, he visited Houston for a victory lap following the passage of Prop 50, California’s retaliatory redistricting in response to Texas.

• ANALYSIS: With many open seats and contentious primaries, 2028 hopefuls have been largely hesitant to get involved in Texas, fearing an ill-placed endorsement could come back to bite them if another candidate wins.

AS SEEN ON TV: What primary voters are viewing