Feb. 24, 2026, 7:03 p.m.
WHEN: Polls open at 6:30 a.m. ET on March 3 and close at 7:30 p.m. ET. Results can be found here.
BIG PICTURE: The matchup for the Senate race was decided when the two front-runners—former Gov. Roy Cooper on the Democratic side and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley for the Republicans—jumped into the race last year. The fireworks for Hotline’s most competitive Senate race will come later as this contest is projected to be the most expensive Senate race on the map. Some estimates say the two camps will spend $700 million on ads alone. The intrigue on Tuesday is found in the undercard races. Aggressive Republican gerrymanders over the years have reduced the state to just one competitive House seat. And another one of the most consequential downballot races has more implications for 2028 than 2026.
SENATE: A clear field with clear front-runners
Cooper has a glidepath to the Democratic nomination. The Republican primary features Whatley, 2024 state Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee Michele Morrow (R), and 2024 N.C.-08 candidate Don Brown (R). Whatley is the clear front-runner.
- ANALYSIS: Cooper, a former two-term governor, is the top-tier recruit Senate Democrats needed to flip this swing seat. His electoral experience and his built-in statewide name ID are bolstering his candidacy, while the Trump-endorsed Whatley introduces himself to voters as a political candidate for the first time. Whatley is expected to clear the GOP primary, but he will need to balance the priorities of a general electorate with the need to convince low-propensity MAGA voters to turn out during a midterm.
- COOK RATING: Toss Up
HOUSE: Redistricting, age put two incumbents in the hot seat
N.C.-01: Rep. Don Davis (D) is waiting for his GOP opponent. The Republican field includes 2024 nominee Laurie Buckhout, state Sen. Bobby Hanig, Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Buckhout, who joined the field after redistricting, has spent the most on TV time, reminding voters of her ties to President Trump. The newly retooled seat would have gone to Trump in 2024 by 12 points.
- COOK RATING: Lean Republican
N.C.-04: Rep. Valerie Foushee (D) faces a spirited challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam (D), who lost to Foushee by 9 points in the 2022 primary. Allam is running to Foushee’s left, criticizing her for her past ties to AIPAC and alleged inability to fight the Trump administration. Allam, 32, is also making this a referendum on age, as she’s 37 years Foushee’s junior.
- COOK RATING: Safe Democrat
STATE: The state Supreme Court race impacting 2028
State Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls (D) faces a challenge from state Rep. Sarah Stevens (R). While Earls’s 2026 reelection bid won’t change the Republican majority on the state’s high court, it sets the stage for a testy 2028 cycle in which three of the court’s Republicans are up. If Earls wins reelection this cycle, Democrats will need to flip only two out of three seats to win the majority.
A HELPING HAND: Where the 2028 hopefuls are hitting the stump
Whatley said Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance encouraged him to run for the Senate seat, and he has appeared with Trump and Vance at events in the state. On the Democratic side, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey stumped for Cooper in January.
- ANALYSIS: Despite chatter that North Carolina may vote early in the new Democratic presidential nominating calendar, 2028 hopefuls have largely bypassed the state. Just three prospective Democratic presidential candidates—Booker, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg—have visited the Tar Heel State since July last year.
AS SEEN ON TV: What primary voters are viewing
Many of the ads in the Senate race are focused on the general election. Whatley, who’s spent nearly $4 million so far on mostly CTV and cable spots, released an ad in early February that simply touts his endorsement from Trump without touching on his own background as a political operative. Cooper’s campaign has spent seven figures on digital ads instead, highlighting the race’s competitiveness online to boost fundraising.
Outside groups have left their mark on the Raleigh-area N.C.-04. Leaders We Deserve, an outside group looking to elect younger people to Congress, dropped an ad criticizing Foushee over her corporate PAC donors. The same ad is also run by American Priorities, a new super PAC designed to counter AIPAC.
Foushee has responded by cutting an ad touting her opposition to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
