Outside of Texas, where Republicans are likely to flip three seats and are competitive in another two thanks to redistricting, Ohio might present the next best opportunity for the GOP to flip seats as they look to expand their narrow House majority.
That’s especially true after the Supreme Court upheld Democrats’ California gerrymander Wednesday, shoring up a handful of previously competitive seats and giving Democrats an advantage in up to five Republican-held seats.
Constitutionally mandated redistricting sent Ohio lawmakers back to the drawing board, where they retooled Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-01) Cincinnati-area seat and made Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-09) already-red seat even more Republican.
In a political environment historically favoring Democrats, map expansion for the incumbent party is often difficult. The two seats represent a chance for Republicans to flip two seats on Trump-won turf.
The NRCC outlined its path to victory in both seats, as well as the tougher lift in OH-13, in a strategy memo released following redistricting. The memo declares the party on offense in Ohio and offers an analysis of some counties in the competitive seats.
With candidate filing passing Wednesday, both OH-01 and OH-09 play host to competitive primaries. Air Force veteran Eric Conroy (R) appears to be the preferred choice by national operatives to take on Landsman. Meanwhile, there’s another mess of a primary to take on Kaptur for the third cycle in a row. This time, 2024 nominee Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, and Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem had been vying for the GOP nomination before a late entry by former ICE Deputy Director Madison Sheahan further scrambled the field. An endorsement from President Trump could prove critical to clear the field in this must-win seat against a tough out in Kaptur.
Still, Republicans see a path to victory in both.
“Republicans are on offense in Ohio and plan to flip multiple seats to not just retain but grow our majority,” NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon told Hotline. “Out of touch Ohio Democrats should go ahead and start packing up their DC offices.”
Democrats have also sought to expand their map in the Buckeye State, eyeing three traditionally Republican seats in OH-07, OH-10, and OH-15, which the GOP calls delusional.
— James A. Downs
