Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math

Shortly after Senate Republicans gained four seats last November, soon-to-be chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Kirsten Gillibrand predicted her party would need two cycles to reclaim the majority.

“I think it'll take at least two cycles,” the junior senator from New York said, “but I'm willing to do the work.”

In early summer, anticipating passage of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and a series of Democratic recruitment wins, Gillibrand changed her tune, projecting that her party could achieve a four-seat gain of its own next year.

But history might not be on Gillibrand’s side. The GOP expanded its Senate majority during Trump's first midterms in 2018, despite the blue wave in the House, and the map this cycle slightly favors Republicans.

“The math is really, really tough for Democrats,” said Carlos Algara, a political science professor who studies Senate elections at Claremont Graduate University. “I never say never in politics, but I would not be optimistic if I was a Democratic strategist this cycle.”

Democrats will need to defend all of their must-win purple-state seats—in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire—while eyeing pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Party leaders are projecting confidence they can reach 51 seats in 2026, a prospect Democratic strategists acknowledge as difficult. They project that Trump’s absence at the top of the ticket, low presidential-approval numbers, and their party’s overperformance in this year’s special elections all point to a chance for the party to overcome the odds.

“It looks real encouraging,” outgoing Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan told National Journal. “You have Sherrod Brown running in Ohio. I think that’s a big deal. [We have] the former governor of North Carolina. I think we’ve got some great candidates.”

Democrats are basing their ambitious midterm playbook on candidate quality, pointing to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s recruitment of outgoing Maine Gov. Janet Mills, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, and former Sen. Brown of Ohio. Democrats believe these three recruits have built political brands independent of the national Democratic Party, which will allow them to defy the party’s high unfavorability rate.

Peters, who chaired the DSCC during the 2022 and 2024 cycles, told National Journal the party’s recruitment of experienced candidates is an asset, hearkening back to his routine emphasis on candidate quality.

However, all three marquee recruits face historical headwinds in their races. Brown, who lost to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno by less than 4 points last year, is the only 21st-century Democrat to win a Senate race in Ohio, a state that increasingly favors the GOP. Cooper won two terms as governor in 2016 and 2020, but his party hasn’t won a Senate seat in North Carolina since 2008. He’ll face former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in a race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.

Maine Democrats are divided on who they want to nominate against GOP Sen. Susan Collins, in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1988. (The state’s other senator, Angus King, is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.) Oyster farmer Graham Platner, a 41-year-old populist, could upset the 77-year-old Mills in the primary, despite his recent controversies. The Democratic primary seems likely to serve as a microcosm of the larger debates over age, credentials, and priorities within the party, threatening to upset Washington leadership’s plans in a must-win race.

“While Republicans contend with a building midterm backlash, a string of disastrous recruitment failures, messy primaries, and a toxic agenda that have put their majority at risk, Democrats are on offense,” DSCC spokesperson Maeve Coyle told National Journal in a statement. “We have expanded the battleground map and are in a strong position to flip seats in 2026.”

Apart from the above trio of recruits, Schumer is still looking to convince former Rep. Mary Peltola of Alaska to challenge Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan instead of running for governor. When National Journal asked Sullivan how he feels about Schumer’s attempt to recruit Peltola, the senator simply grinned and shrugged.

If Peltola passes on a Senate bid, the party could find its fourth target in Iowa or Texas. Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement is an encouraging sign for Democrats in Iowa, a state that values incumbency. Texas Democrats also see an opening amid the GOP primary showdown between Sen. John Cornyn and controversial state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Both races have competitive Democratic primaries.

“When you’re talking about a race like the United States Senate, we’re talking about being able to fundamentally change our country,” Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democratic Senate contender, told National Journal. “That should give a lot of people here in Iowa a lot of hope and a lot of enthusiasm.”

Democrats are also keeping their eye on Kansas and Mississippi. Schumer actively pushed District Attorney Scott Colom to challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, seeing an opening in the state with the largest percentage of Black residents. In Kansas, Rep. Sharice Davids could be spurred to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall if the state’s GOP-controlled legislature redraws her district to favor Republicans.

“Just looking at the map in 2028, if Democrats pick up no seats in this cycle, I would just find it very improbable that they would even have a path in ‘28,” Algara said.

Unsurprisingly, Republicans dispute their rival party’s one-cycle majority chances, plotting an expansion of their own. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott aims to increase the party’s 53-seat majority to 55.

“Republicans are united behind our incumbents and fantastic recruits like John Sununu, Michael Whatley, Mike Rogers, and Ashley Hinson, while Democrats face historically low approval ratings, a Sanders vs. Schumer proxy war for control of their Party, and an identity crisis after a decade of standing for nothing except hating President Trump,” NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez told National Journal in a statement.

The GOP sees bright spots in Georgia and Michigan, states that Trump won in both 2016 and 2024. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, is facing his first reelection bid. In Michigan, Peters is retiring after two terms, spurring a contentious Democratic primary to replace him, while the NRSC backs former Rep. Mike Rogers’s comeback bid.

“Republicans are charged-up about getting a change for the first time in 32 years, putting a Republican in the United States Senate representing Michigan and Michigan workers,” Rogers told National Journal in September.

With the help of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Republicans recruited former Sen. John E. Sununu of New Hampshire in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who defeated Sununu in 2008. The NRSC-backed Sununu will face former Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts in the primary, before he can take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.

“I think we have a lot to run on, so I think we’ll hopefully pick up seats,” said Sen. Rick Scott, who chaired the NRSC during the 2022 midterms.

Sen. Steve Daines, the NRSC chair for the 2024 cycle, told National Journal that he is pleased with the current chair’s work ahead of the midterms, pointing to candidate-recruitment efforts and fundraising. Daines said he is also confident his party can hold Senate control beyond the 2026 election.

“I feel good about it,” he said. “Looking at the map short- and even long-term, I think we are in a strong tradition of older majorities for the foreseeable future.”

Democrats are pitching their midterm strategy as grounded in lessons learned from the 2024 election, with a hyperfocus on the economy and affordability. They also hope to tap back into their 2018 playbook with a focus on health care—from attacking the One Big Beautiful Bill’s reduction in federal Medicaid spending, to staking their shutdown strategy on preventing the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium subsidies from expiring at the end of this year.

Sen. Ruben Gallego, a swing-state senator from Arizona, told National Journal, “I think if these [Republicans] end up increasing the premiums of 24 million Americans by doubling them, they’re going to end up paying for it at the polling booth.”