Exclusive poll reveals inflation and tariffs top concerns of New Jersey, Virginia voters

STATE OF THE STATES: Exclusive Polling Shows NJ, VA Voters Reactions to Inflation, Tariffs

Polling from the interest group Tariffs Cost US and Morning Consult exclusively shared with Hotline found voters in Virginia and New Jersey are concerned about inflation and the impact of tariffs in this year’s marquee gubernatorial races.

• ON INFLATION. In New Jersey (Oct. 9-12; 700 RVs; +/-4.0%) and Virginia (Oct. 9-12; 700 RVs; +/-4.0%), 89% of each sample said they are very concerned or somewhat concerned about inflation. Those polled in both states ranked overall cost of living, groceries, housing, energy, and health care as areas where they feel costs are increasing.
• IMPACT OF TARIFFS. 80% of New Jersey voters and 75% of Virginia voters polled said they are trying to spend less money due to tariffs, while 64% and 61%, respectively, are avoiding any major purchases.
• NOT OVER YET. 78% of New Jersey voters and 73% of Virginia voters indicated that they think the costs of goods will increase due to the tariffs. A majority of those polled in each state also think the worst impact from the tariffs has yet to hit.
• CANDIDATES ON TARIFFS. In New Jersey, 52% of voters said they are more likely to support a gubernatorial candidate if they opposed tariffs, including 54% of independents. In Virginia, 51% said they would be more likely to support a candidate who opposes tariffs, including 46% of independents. (release)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. There's no doubt that rising costs and economic pressures are one of the biggest issues for voters in this cycle’s off-year elections. Candidates in both parties have honed in on this issue in Virginia and New Jersey, and the winning message in November will likely inform how midterm candidates appeal to voters on affordability. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) have attacked President Trump, and their GOP opponents, on the tariffs. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) and 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R-NJ) have embraced Trump throughout their campaigns and avoided criticizing his administration’s moves. Instead, they’re each proposing tax reductions to address affordability. Governor’s race will always be unique from one another, but expect cost of living and tariffs to take center stage in most of the midterm races.

ARIZONA: Hobbs Considers Leaving National Governors Association

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is considering leaving the National Governors Association, “questioning whether the nonpartisan association still serves their interests. And that, she said, is leading her to reconsider whether she and Arizona are being truly served by the NGA.” Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) are not renewing their states’ membership amid the organization’s silence on the deployment of National Guard in various states. (Arizona Capitol Times)

CALIFORNIA: Alex Padilla Holds Higher Favorability Rating Over Katie Porter

An Emerson College poll (Oct. 20-21; 900 LVs; +/-3.19%) found former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) leading in the gubernatorial field with 16%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter (D) with 15%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) with 11%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) with 5%, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) with 5%. Four other candidates received less than 3%. 39% were undecided and 2% said they would vote for someone else.

• PLAYING FAVORITES. Sen. Alex Padilla (D), considered a possible alternative to Porter if he gets in the race, held a 40% favorable rating and a 28% unfavorable rating. Porter held a 26% favorable rating and a 35% unfavorable rating. (release)
• WHO TO CONSIDER. In a CBS News/YouGov survey (Oct. 16-21; 1,504 RVs; +/-3.8%), 38% said they were considering Padilla for governor while 32% said they were not considering him. 27% said they were considering Porter and 41% said they were not considering her for governor. (CBS News)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. These are the first polls fielded following viral clips of Porter threatening to walk out of an interview and yelling at a staffer. This race could be Padilla’s for the taking if he wants it.

MICHIGAN: Mike Duggan Campaign Picks Up Steam From Recent Polling

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s (I) “get-it-done, old-school approach hasn’t earned him the spotlight that some other big city mayors and candidates have garnered, but he is starting to pick up some national notoriety” as he closes gaps in polling.

• DUGGAN SAYS: “The reason I am doing so well is because both parties’ messaging is to make you hate the other party more.” (Politico)

NEW JERSEY: Gateway Tunnel Project Defines Final Campaign Messages

“Often, infrastructure issues take a back seat in political campaigns, discussed in broad platitudes with undefined timelines.” President Trump’s cancellation of the Gateway Tunnel project connecting New Jersey and New York City, however, made it the focus in the final weeks of the election.

• VERY VOCAL. “In this tightening political race, the project has quickly become a lifeline of sorts for” Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-11). Her campaign has posted about it 17 times on X and she prompted Democratic leaders like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) to chime in.
• EXHIBIT A. The tunnel has become a key narrative in her closing argument, using it “as evidence that” 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R) “would have no sway with the White House.”
• A LITTER QUIETER. The GOP nominee’s “first response was to call for patience, noting that the initial suspension of funding from the Trump administration did not imperil the immediate construction.” Now that Trump has terminated the project, which was also a big campaign talking point, he has stayed relatively quiet on the issue. (New York Times)

NEW YORK: Jeffries Inches Toward Zohran Mamdani Endorsement

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appeared to tease an endorsement of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D) after the Democratic mayoral nominee committed to keeping the current police commissioner if elected. “Jeffries has avoided weighing in on the race for months but promised an endorsement before early voting starts on Saturday.” (Bloomberg)

OREGON: 2022 Nominee Considers Rematch with Kotek

2022 nominee Christine Drazan (R), who was recently appointed to an empty state Senate after serving as a state representative, “acknowledged she could depart the seat early to again run for governor in 2026.”

• TRY TRY AGAIN. Drazan lost to Gov. Tina Kotek (D) by 3 points in 2022. “Drazan would likely emerge as the frontrunner in the Republican Party to challenge Kotek, who has been raising money but has not officially announced reelection plans.” (Oregon Live)

VIRGINIA: Abigail Spanberger Leads in Washington Post Poll

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll (Oct. 16-20; 927 LVs; +/-3.5%) found former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 54%-42%. 1% said they would vote for neither, 1% wouldn’t vote, and 2% had no opinion.

• DOWN THE BALLOT. In the lieutenant governor’s race, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D) led talk show host John Reid (R), 51%-44%. 2% said they would vote for neither, 1% wouldn’t vote, and 2% had no opinion.
• IN A TIE. In the attorney general’s race, state Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) and former Del. Jay Jones (D) were statistically tied, each with 46%. 4% said they would vote for neither, 1% wouldn’t vote, and 3% had no opinion. (Washington Post)
• HOTLINE ANALYSIS. This poll is probably more aligned with what the actual results will be, versus a double digit lead for Spanberger and Jones losing by 5 points. Ticket splitting isn’t unheard of in Virginia, but a large double-digit spread between the top of the ticket and Jones would be rare.
• PUT IT ON MY CALENDAR. Earle-Sears’ government website says she traveled 28,000 miles across Virginia since taking office and headline events across the state and country, similar to the campaign pitch she is making to voters.
• OR DON’T. However, calendar documents “show large gaps—sometimes weeks, other times months—where Earle-Sears lists no meetings, events or governmental engagements on her official schedule.”
• WHO IS TO SAY. Her “schedules do not indicate whether she sometimes sought to keep her whereabouts as lieutenant governor a secret, or conversely, if she spends long periods not actively working in an official capacity.” (NOTUS)