POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Poll: How Likely Are Republicans to Take Over the Senate in 2014?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Aug. 29, 2013, 6:17 a.m.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (vir­tu­al cer­tainty), how likely are Re­pub­lic­ans to take over the Sen­ate in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (83 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 4.0

Slight chance (0-3): 42%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 53%
Strong chance (7-10): 5%

Slight chance

“They can’t help re­cruit­ing them­selves out of win­ning.”

“It is very likely that Re­pub­lic­ans will make mean­ing­ful pro­gress in their num­bers in the Sen­ate, but this is where a hand­ful of past over­reaches to the right really make it tough to get to 51 for Re­pub­lic­ans. Ken Buck. Todd Akin. Christine O’Don­nell. Dick Mour­dock. Tough to run when you keep shoot­ing your­self in the foot.”

“They have a real op­por­tun­ity but for the Akin/Mour­dock wing of their party, which keeps win­ning primar­ies.”

“Their primar­ies and ex­trem­ism will, again, pre­vent them from tak­ing the ma­jor­ity. On top of that, their fun­drais­ing is stag­nant due to dis­ar­ray and dis­mal re­turns last cycle.”

“GOP will have to pull a straight flush to win the Sen­ate. Not go­ing to hap­pen.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“South­ern Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents will have their hands full.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans still need a few dif­fi­cult wins over in­cum­bent Demo­crats and do not ap­pear to have the wind at their back.”

“Too early to tell. Re­pub­lic­ans should be do­ing bet­ter giv­en second-term midterm blues, but they are hav­ing a tough time put­ting all the pieces to­geth­er.”

“The math fa­vors the Re­pub­lic­ans, but they have screwed up their chances the last two cycles. Re­mains to be seen wheth­er they will do that again.”

“Still pos­sible, but now Ken­tucky and Geor­gia make it harder.”

“It should be high­er, but the Re­pub­lic­ans con­tin­ue to play a game of Rus­si­an roul­ette with the tea parti­ers, and too of­ten they lose a Sen­ate seat they oth­er­wise would have won with a more main­stream can­did­ate.”

“Less than 50-50, as they still need to run the table; but our re­cruit­ment in a few places is just hor­rendous and leaves the door open.”

Strong chance

“I really hope I’m wrong, but can­did­ate re­cruit­ment has not been our strength this time around. You would think Dems could find one in­ter­est­ing per­son in some of these states who could give the Re­pub­lic­ans a sol­id race. But not hap­pen­ing.”

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (vir­tu­al cer­tainty), how likely are Re­pub­lic­ans to take over the Sen­ate in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (96 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 5.3

Slight chance (0-3): 16%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 63%
Strong chance (7-10): 21%

Slight chance

“Re­pub­lic­ans tak­ing the Sen­ate is feel­ing like Charlie Brown kick­ing the foot­ball.”

“There are suf­fi­cient op­por­tun­it­ies for pickups. The prob­lem is that there are also a hand­ful of vul­ner­able seats that off­set to a de­gree, [mak­ing] get­ting to 51 un­likely.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“It’s pos­sible, but we have to learn some les­sons we haven’t shown we have learned yet.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans mis­fired with un­forced er­rors in 2010 and 2012. Takeover in 2014 will re­quire bet­ter per­form­ance.”

“2014 will de­pend on qual­ity of GOP can­did­ates.”

“GOP still needs to get its act to­geth­er. Too many primar­ies, and the op­por­tun­ity will slip away.”

“Giv­en how in last two cycles we’ve ruined golden op­por­tun­it­ies with mor­on­ic nom­in­ees, I’m not gush­ing with con­fid­ence.”

“The GOP brand is so dam­aged, I worry they will snatch minor­ity from the jaws of ma­jor­ity.”

“Feels like one or two seats too many to over­take.”

“Dead even right now; re­cent Dem re­cruit­ment strength (Geor­gia, Ken­tucky) will di­vert some GOP re­sources. Right track/wrong track num­bers still not bad enough to wash out Demo­crats.”

“Too many miss­ing op­por­tun­it­ies in purple states — no can­did­ate in Vir­gin­ia, no top-tier can­did­ates in Iowa and Min­nesota and Michigan, etc.”

Strong chance

“There are sev­en seats in states won by Rom­ney; pres­id­ents lose, on av­er­age, six seats in their second term; Demo­crat­ic Na­tion­al Com­mit­tee/Demo­crat­ic Sen­at­ori­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee debt is north of $20 mil­lion; Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Sen­at­ori­al Com­mit­tee has out-re­cruited the Demo­crats.”

“Watch for a late-break­ing Louisi­ana win to put the GOP over the top.”

“Num­bers don’t lie, and geo­graphy mat­ters. The states in play are fa­vor­able to the GOP. But there is still time for the party to screw it up.”

… … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (83 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 4.0

Slight chance (0-3): 42%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 53%
Strong chance (7-10): 5%

Slight chance

“They can’t help re­cruit­ing them­selves out of win­ning.”

“It is very likely that Re­pub­lic­ans will make mean­ing­ful pro­gress in their num­bers in the Sen­ate, but this is where a hand­ful of past over­reaches to the right really make it tough to get to 51 for Re­pub­lic­ans. Ken Buck. Todd Akin. Christine O’Don­nell. Dick Mour­dock. Tough to run when you keep shoot­ing your­self in the foot.”

“They have a real op­por­tun­ity but for the Akin/Mour­dock wing of their party, which keeps win­ning primar­ies.”

“Their primar­ies and ex­trem­ism will, again, pre­vent them from tak­ing the ma­jor­ity. On top of that, their fun­drais­ing is stag­nant due to dis­ar­ray and dis­mal re­turns last cycle.”

“GOP will have to pull a straight flush to win the Sen­ate. Not go­ing to hap­pen.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“South­ern Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents will have their hands full.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans still need a few dif­fi­cult wins over in­cum­bent Demo­crats and do not ap­pear to have the wind at their back.”

“Too early to tell. Re­pub­lic­ans should be do­ing bet­ter giv­en second-term midterm blues, but they are hav­ing a tough time put­ting all the pieces to­geth­er.”

“The math fa­vors the Re­pub­lic­ans, but they have screwed up their chances the last two cycles. Re­mains to be seen wheth­er they will do that again.”

“Still pos­sible, but now Ken­tucky and Geor­gia make it harder.”

“It should be high­er, but the Re­pub­lic­ans con­tin­ue to play a game of Rus­si­an roul­ette with the tea parti­ers, and too of­ten they lose a Sen­ate seat they oth­er­wise would have won with a more main­stream can­did­ate.”

“Less than 50-50, as they still need to run the table; but our re­cruit­ment in a few places is just hor­rendous and leaves the door open.”

Strong chance

“I really hope I’m wrong, but can­did­ate re­cruit­ment has not been our strength this time around. You would think Dems could find one in­ter­est­ing per­son in some of these states who could give the Re­pub­lic­ans a sol­id race. But not hap­pen­ing.”

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Republicans to take over the Senate in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (96 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 5.3

Slight chance (0-3): 16%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 63%
Strong chance (7-10): 21%

Slight chance

“Re­pub­lic­ans tak­ing the Sen­ate is feel­ing like Charlie Brown kick­ing the foot­ball.”

“There are suf­fi­cient op­por­tun­it­ies for pickups. The prob­lem is that there are also a hand­ful of vul­ner­able seats that off­set to a de­gree, [mak­ing] get­ting to 51 un­likely.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“It’s pos­sible, but we have to learn some les­sons we haven’t shown we have learned yet.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans mis­fired with un­forced er­rors in 2010 and 2012. Takeover in 2014 will re­quire bet­ter per­form­ance.”

“2014 will de­pend on qual­ity of GOP can­did­ates.”

“GOP still needs to get its act to­geth­er. Too many primar­ies, and the op­por­tun­ity will slip away.”

“Giv­en how in last two cycles we’ve ruined golden op­por­tun­it­ies with mor­on­ic nom­in­ees, I’m not gush­ing with con­fid­ence.”

“The GOP brand is so dam­aged, I worry they will snatch minor­ity from the jaws of ma­jor­ity.”

“Feels like one or two seats too many to over­take.”

“Dead even right now; re­cent Dem re­cruit­ment strength (Geor­gia, Ken­tucky) will di­vert some GOP re­sources. Right track/wrong track num­bers still not bad enough to wash out Demo­crats.”

“Too many miss­ing op­por­tun­it­ies in purple states — no can­did­ate in Vir­gin­ia, no top-tier can­did­ates in Iowa and Min­nesota and Michigan, etc.”

Strong chance

“There are sev­en seats in states won by Rom­ney; pres­id­ents lose, on av­er­age, six seats in their second term; Demo­crat­ic Na­tion­al Com­mit­tee/Demo­crat­ic Sen­at­ori­al Cam­paign Com­mit­tee debt is north of $20 mil­lion; Na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Sen­at­ori­al Com­mit­tee has out-re­cruited the Demo­crats.”

“Watch for a late-break­ing Louisi­ana win to put the GOP over the top.”

“Num­bers don’t lie, and geo­graphy mat­ters. The states in play are fa­vor­able to the GOP. But there is still time for the party to screw it up.”

… … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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