Oct. 25, 2020, 8 p.m.
Despite President Trump’s confidence that his party will retake the House, Republicans are more focused on trying to stem further losses hoping to pick off a handful of Democratic incumbents who are running in GOP-leaning districts.
Democrats are all but certain to gain two seats in North Carolina thanks to redistricting, further raising the threshold for Republicans to take back the majority. Poor fundraising, lackluster candidate recruitment, and Trump’s shadow have stamped out nearly every path back to power. The rosiest projections from GOP strategists cap their gains at five seats on a good night.
Buoyed by 32 open seats previously held by Republicans, Democrats have utilized their fundraising advantage to press deep into Republican territory, forcing outside GOP groups to play defense in seats that were unheard of a year ago.
Our findings are based on an analysis of candidate recruitment, demographics, fundraising, polling, and interviews with party strategists.
None of these are certain wins either way, but a little more than a week out it appears that Democrats are poised to expand their majority.
1. Georgia’s 7th District: Open (R) ↑
If demographics are destiny, Republicans are all but certain to lose the seat held by retiring Rep. Rob Woodall in the Atlanta suburbs. The Democratic nominee, Carolyn Bourdeaux, came within 500 votes last cycle, and physician Rich McCormick has failed to make a case for himself, thanks to his anemic fundraising in an expensive media market. Outside groups have spent more than $13 million on the race, a testament to the early buy-in from both parties. Joe Biden is expected to carry the district, especially the portion including rapidly diversifying Gwinnett County, which has all the hallmarks of the districts that delivered the House majority to Democrats in 2018.
2. Minnesota’s 7th District: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) ↑
If 2018 marked the beginning of the realignment of Minnesota’s House districts—Republicans flipping open seats in the predominantly rural 1st and 8th Districts, while Democrats flipped the suburban 2nd and 3rd Districts—then Peterson’s only hope is that 2020 doesn’t mark its completion. But rather than the fact that Trump carried his rural district by 30 points, Republicans’ confidence that Peterson’s 28 years in Congress might be coming to an end rests in their nominee, former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach. Democrats acknowledge that Peterson is in a precarious position but point to a couple silver linings. First, given Trump’s erosion in popularity over the past four years, the president might carry the district by a narrower margin and Peterson would have to convince fewer voters to split their ticket. Secondly, Peterson has been highlighting his vote against impeaching the president and his role as chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. The only thing keeping this district in Democrats’ grasp is Peterson himself, but that’s an awfully heavy load to carry in a presidential year with such a polarized electorate.
3. Texas’ 23rd District: Open (R) ↓
Since Hotline’s July power rankings, Republicans have gotten bullish on holding onto the sprawling district that stretches along the Rio Grande River from El Paso to San Antonio. Navy veteran Tony Gonzales has shown some resilience since securing the nomination in July. But Gonzales, like many Republican candidates this cycle, is relying on outside groups to subsidize his campaign against a well-funded Democratic opponent. Gina Ortiz Jones built a massive cash advantage after she won the Democratic primary outright, when Gonzales was still mired in a primary runoff. The district is one of three that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 where Republicans survived the 2018 blue wave. Without Will Hurd on the ballot, Republicans will have a difficult time holding on, even if it’s not a blowout for Democrats.
4. New Mexico’s 2nd District: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) ↓
Throughout the cycle, Republicans have relied on messaging that ties the freshman to out-of-state Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Bernie Sanders, a familiar theme for Democrats who represent districts that Trump carried. But it seems within the realm of possibility that Biden could improve upon Clinton’s 2016 share of just 40 percent in the district, if not actually carry the district outright. But the predominantly Hispanic and rural district relies on the oil and gas industry, which means Biden’s debate performance gives Republicans’ another avenue through which to attack Torres Small. Democrats got their preferred opponent in 2018 nominee Yvette Herrell, who had spent $2.6 million as of Oct. 14 compared to Torres Small’s $6.5 million. Herrell was outspent in 2018 and lost; it’s hard to tell whether she’ll be facing a more favorable environment this time around.
5. Indiana’s 5th District: Open (R) ↑
The seat is another example of a once-safe red district where the tectonic leftward shift of the suburbs has put Republicans on the ropes. 2016 Lt. Gov. nominee Christina Hale cuts a similar profile to the House Democratic freshmen. State Sen. Victoria Spartz was far from national Republicans' first choice to defend National Republican Congressional Committee recruitment chair Susan Brooks’s seat, but she emerged from the crowded GOP primary buoyed by more than a $1 million in self loans and a boost from the Club for Growth. Despite her compelling personal story of immigrating from Ukraine to the United States, she has frequently butted heads with the local Republican party and not endeared herself to more moderate members of the party thanks to her full-throated support of Trump. Partisan polling from the shows the president underwater in a district that he carried by 12 points in 2016.
6. Oklahoma’s 5th District: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) ↓
Horn’s reelection hangs on her ability to socially distance herself from national Democrats and demonstrate her independence. But the energy industry is still king in Oklahoma City and Biden’s struggles articulating his energy policy could have ramifications further down the ballot. In a rare break with the top of the ticket, Horn publicly chastised Biden for initially saying he would “transition away from the oil industry” during his administration. She’s facing state Sen. Stephanie Bice, who emerged from the contentious Republican primary despite the conservative Club for Growth spending nearly $1 million on attack ads opposing her. Horn’s win was one of the biggest surprises in 2018, and the most recent district poll shows the race within the margin of error.
7. Arizona’s 6th District: Rep. David Schweikert (R) ↑
Schweikert’s ethics issues seem to be catching up with him, putting Republicans on alert and providing a surge of optimism for Hiral Tipirneni. As of Oct. 14, Tipirneni spent $4.8 million on her race while Schweikert, mired in legal problems, had spent $1.7 million. But Arizona is a presidential battleground that’s also hosting a top-tier Senate race, making it particularly challenging for any candidate to break through the noise. In other words, even if Schweikert’s ethical issues are disqualifying, there’s no guarantee that enough voters will know about it by Election Day. In that case, Tipirneni’s fate might depend on Senate nominee Mark Kelly or Biden boosting Democratic turnout in the suburban district.
8. New York’s 11th District: Rep. Max Rose (D) ↑
The GOP’s law-and-order messaging is running nonstop in House races throughout the state of New York;it’s especially resonant in Staten Island, where many police officers and law enforcement officials live. Rose has responded by aggressively distancing himself from many of his own party leaders, especially New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (whose disapproval rating is a whopping 74 percent in the district, per one GOP pollster). Democrats are outspending Republicans here—and are even airing ads on costly New York City broadcast television—but it may not be enough to overcome the GOP-friendly trends in the blue-collar district.
9. Missouri’s 2nd District: Rep. Ann Wagner (R) ↑
In 2018, Democrats won control of the House largely by focusing on health care, and while the rest of the state is shades redder the wealthy St. Louis suburbs could respond well to that messaging. State Sen. Jill Schupp has steadily knocked Wagner for supporting the GOP efforts to roll back the Affordable Care Act, reflecting the drastic shift in public perception of Barack Obama’s signature legislative achievement. In August, the state expanded Medicaid eligibility through a ballot measure, with support from voters in suburban “areas that have been voting in support of Republicans for more than a decade,” according to The Kansas City Star.
10. New York’s 22nd District: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) ⎼
The race would be higher on the list but former Rep. Claudia Tenney has not demonstrated much improvement over her 2018 loss to Brindisi. She has been outspent 3-to-1, outraised 5-to-1, and reported nearly $1 million less cash on hand going into October. Brindisi has used his cash advantage to tout his work passing the SPOONSS Act in his ads, while outside GOP groups have knocked Brindisi using audio of Trump criticizing him. Trump carried the district by 16 points in 2016, the second highest margin of any seat represented by a Democrat.
11. Texas’s 22nd District: Open (R) ↓
Texas is ground zero for House Democrats as they look to expand their House majority, according to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Cheri Bustos, and the committee is focusing on these two open suburban seats. Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni came within 5 points of beating Rep. Pete Olson in 2018 and now, with early buy-in from national Democratic groups and stellar fundraising, Kulkarni is in a strong position against Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls. Republicans maintain 2018 was a high-water mark for Democrats in Texas and that Nehls’s strong local ties community will overcome his fundraising difficulties. But Nehls’s profile as a law-and-order sheriff might not resonate. An internal poll from Kulkarni’s campaign showed him leading Nehls 48 percent to 43 percent in early October, and the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC recently redirected its ad spending from Texas’s 7th District to the 22nd to boost Kulkarni.
12. Texas’s 24th District: Open (R) ↓
Nearly $14 million in outside spending has blanketed the airwaves in the district, based around the Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs, making it one of the most expensive races in the country. Democrat Candace Valenzuela, a member of a local school board, is campaigning to be the first Afro Latina representative in Congress on a message laser-focused on health care. Former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne has won a pair of elections in the more Democratic-leaning areas of the district, but national politics could overshadow her record. Notably, Republicans have struggled to paint Valenzuela as an out-of-touch socialist like they had hoped. If suburban Texas splits from the GOP in 2020, this district will be one of the first to flip.
13. New Jersey’s 2nd District: Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) ↑
Party-switchers don’t have a favorable track record in politics after defecting. Van Drew is no exception, inviting the wrath of his former Democratic supporters at the same time independent voters have broken away from Trump’s Republican Party. Democrats have polling showing the congressman trailing Democrat Amy Kennedy, but Republicans are hopeful that a late infusion of cash will end up bailing the embattled incumbent out.
14. California’s 21st District: Rep. T.J. Cox (D) ↑
Cox’s ethics scandals have taken their toll on the freshman. Former Rep. David Valadao could be the rare rematch-Republican to reclaim their seat and possibly beat back Democratic gains in the state. Biden needs to perform particularly well in the district in order to lift Cox, but even that might not be enough to save him.
15. New York’s 2nd District: Open (R) ↓
An under-the-radar pickup opportunity earlier in the cycle, retiring Rep. Peter King’s open seat is now a giant headache Republicans did not think they would have. Democrat Jackie Gordon, a Black war veteran who served on her local town council, has put Republicans firmly on defense. She has outraised Republican state Rep. Andrew Garbarino every quarter, forcing outside GOP groups to invest heavily in Long Island. If Republicans’ struggles in the suburbs extend to the Long Island-based district, they could lose the district even after Trump carried it by 9 points in 2016.
16. Ohio’s 1st District: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) ↑
Chabot finds himself at the mercy of national winds. His Cincinnati-area seat is just the type of district where support for Trump has bottomed out in recent months. A looming investigation into Chabot’s campaign finances coupled with a strong challenger has made this seat even more vulnerable than in 2018, when Chabot faced a well-funded challenge. Democrat Kate Schroder has outraised Chabot nearly every quarter this cycle and she has knocked Chabot for his response to the pandemic. Chabot has maintained he was a victim rather than a perpetrator of a crime but the allegations, coupled with a strong performance from Biden, could drag Chabot down.
17. Nebraska’s 2nd District: Rep. Don Bacon (R) ↓
If there’s a mass exodus of Republican voters in suburban districts, Bacon in all likelihood will lose reelection—and Republicans will lose the district’s Electoral College vote for the first time since 2008. But there’s a wrinkle in that outcome: While progressive Kara Eastman has become one of Democrats’ strongest candidates and fundraisers, galvanizing national support since her 2018 loss, she has earned the enmity of her 2018 primary challenger, former Rep. Brad Ashford. That seemed like old news until last week, when Ashford, whose wife lost to Eastman in the 2020 primary, endorsed Bacon and cut an ad for him. It’s not unthinkable that Biden, who has campaigned against Medicare-for-all and based his candidacy as an alternative approach to Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders, could be successful in this district while Eastman falls short. On the other hand, Ashford isn’t exactly a powerbroker in Nebraska Democratic politics, and there’s no guarantee he’s changed the shape of the race.
18. Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R) ↓
House Democrats are betting that the outsized national attention from the presidential candidates in the Keystone State boosts their downballot candidates, especially in south-central Pennsylvania. State Auditor General Eugene DePasquale is facing Rep. Scott Perry, and the district is a mostly blue-collar mix of medium-sized cities, suburbs, and rural areas. Partisan polls have shown conflicting results for the race, but Biden’s coattails may be enough to push DePasquale over the edge against an incumbent facing criticism for his response to the pandemic.
19. South Carolina’s 1st District: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) ↓
Cunningham’s fundraising prowess and his ”Low Country attitude” have made this race far from a sure pickup for the GOP. Cunningham went on air with his first TV ad in July and has not looked back. He’s leveraged his early fundraising advantage over state Rep. Nancy Mace to tout his bipartisan credentials early and often, even endearing the admiration of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Cunningham’s ads forced Mace’s GOP allies to move up their ad reservations, leaving her without cover in the closing weeks of the campaign. Mace outraised Cunningham in the last quarter and reported more cash on hand, but it might be too late to cut into the freshman Democrat’s lead.
20. California’s 25th District: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) —
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has touted Garcia as proof the party is intentionally recruiting a diverse group of candidates and winning in swing districts. Garcia became the first Republican in over 20 years to flip a seat in California when he defeated state Assemblywoman Christy Smith in the May special election to replace former Rep. Katie Hill. Since the loss, Smith has retooled her campaign and rolled out a disciplined message on education and health care. Garcia benefited from a more favorable electorate in the spring, one that will undoubtedly be more favorable to Biden next week.
