Political Insiders Poll

Could Joe Biden Defeat Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
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Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Sept. 19, 2013, 4:05 p.m.

How likely is it that Joe Biden could defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 3%
Likely: 6%
Un­likely: 39%
Very un­likely: 52%

Likely

“Es­pe­cially if Hil­lary skips Iowa, fore­shad­ow­ing whole­sale vs. re­tail polit­ics.”

Un­likely

“The out­come of a Joe-versus-Hil­lary con­test seems clear, but some­how the race will be­come more com­plic­ated. There could be both gen­er­a­tion­al and/or ideo­lo­gic­al chal­lenges.”

“The ba­sic dy­nam­ic would have to change due to some ma­jor event.”

“I nev­er un­der­es­tim­ate the abil­ity of the Clin­ton folks to mis­read the primar­ies, but Biden has nev­er been known for his cam­paign acu­men either.”

“Un­likely that he could win, but he de­serves the chance if he wants to.”

“It’s been a good ride, but the Hil­lary Train is already pick­ing up steam and won’t be stopped.”

“If HRC treats it as a coron­a­tion, he may look like a bet­ter al­tern­at­ive.”

“You didn’t of­fer an ad­di­tion­al choice, which is ac­tu­ally the one that is closest to the truth: Who could pos­sibly know?”

Very un­likely

“Biden lacks the depth of sup­port to give Hil­lary a real run.”

“If she is beaten, it won’t be by someone of her gen­er­a­tion.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans ad­vance like the Rotary Club. Demo­crats like a scrap, but this scrap isn’t go­ing to hap­pen.”

“His­tory has shown us that a cup of this Joe gets cold in a hurry.”

“There is lit­er­ally no chance.”

“It’s Hil­lary’s of­fice to win. How can Biden, as good as he is, win when Hil­lary will get 90 per­cent of the wo­men voters?”

“He’s run many times be­fore, nev­er with any suc­cess with voters or fun­ders.”

“Hil­lary Clin­ton is as close to a con­sensus pres­id­en­tial nom­in­ee as there has been with­in either party in a long time.”

How likely is it that Joe Biden could de­feat Hil­lary Rod­ham Clin­ton for the Demo­crat­ic pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tion?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 3%
Likely: 6%
Un­likely: 39%
Very un­likely: 52%

Likely

“Es­pe­cially if Hil­lary skips Iowa, fore­shad­ow­ing whole­sale vs. re­tail polit­ics.”

Un­likely

“The out­come of a Joe-versus-Hil­lary con­test seems clear, but some­how the race will be­come more com­plic­ated. There could be both gen­er­a­tion­al and/or ideo­lo­gic­al chal­lenges.”

“The ba­sic dy­nam­ic would have to change due to some ma­jor event.”

“I nev­er un­der­es­tim­ate the abil­ity of the Clin­ton folks to mis­read the primar­ies, but Biden has nev­er been known for his cam­paign acu­men either.”

“Un­likely that he could win, but he de­serves the chance if he wants to.”

“It’s been a good ride, but the Hil­lary Train is already pick­ing up steam and won’t be stopped.”

“If HRC treats it as a coron­a­tion, he may look like a bet­ter al­tern­at­ive.”

“You didn’t of­fer an ad­di­tion­al choice, which is ac­tu­ally the one that is closest to the truth: Who could pos­sibly know?”

Very un­likely

“Biden lacks the depth of sup­port to give Hil­lary a real run.”

“If she is beaten, it won’t be by someone of her gen­er­a­tion.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans ad­vance like the Rotary Club. Demo­crats like a scrap, but this scrap isn’t go­ing to hap­pen.”

“His­tory has shown us that a cup of this Joe gets cold in a hurry.”

“There is lit­er­ally no chance.”

“It’s Hil­lary’s of­fice to win. How can Biden, as good as he is, win when Hil­lary will get 90 per­cent of the wo­men voters?”

“He’s run many times be­fore, nev­er with any suc­cess with voters or fun­ders.”

“Hil­lary Clin­ton is as close to a con­sensus pres­id­en­tial nom­in­ee as there has been with­in either party in a long time.”

How likely is it that Joe Biden could de­feat Hil­lary Rod­ham Clin­ton for the Demo­crat­ic pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tion?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (97 VOTES)

Very likely: 1%
Likely: 8%
Un­likely: 33%
Very un­likely: 58%

Very likely

“No one in D.C. be­lieves this, but the Benghazi story will ul­ti­mately come out, and it will be enough to keep Hil­lary from run­ning.”

Likely

“If Biden can get the Obama data­base, he will have a real leg up on the en­tire field.”

“Hil­lary was a shoo-in in 2008 as well.”

Un­likely

“Eliza­beth War­ren is a great­er threat.”

“There ap­pears to be strong re­sid­ual loy­alty to Hil­lary among es­tab­lish­ment Demo­crats, which prob­ably trumps the af­fec­tion that this same group holds for Biden.”

“Hard to see Biden as the real Hil­lary al­tern­at­ive.”

“They like him, but not as pres­id­ent.”

“He was just sane enough to get the VP nod, so who knows?”

Very un­likely

“Clin­ton has more bag­gage than gen­er­ally thought, but mal­aprop Joe would be no match.”

“Clin­ton is beat­able, but not by Biden. He’s just too goofy.”

“Biden is even more yes­ter­day’s story than the Clin­tons.”

“There will rise up some new shiny face to ec­lipse the aged and shop­worn Hil­lary, but it isn’t Joe Biden.”

“People are be­ing po­lite to him these days, but they will get blunt if needed: Re­tire, Joe.”

“The prob­lem the Dems have is that they must nom­in­ate an Afric­an-Amer­ic­an or a wo­man. No more old white guys.”

“Joe would be lucky to win Scrant­on, Pa.”

“Next ques­tion.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

How likely is it that Joe Biden could defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (97 VOTES)

Very likely: 1%
Likely: 8%
Un­likely: 33%
Very un­likely: 58%

Very likely

“No one in D.C. be­lieves this, but the Benghazi story will ul­ti­mately come out, and it will be enough to keep Hil­lary from run­ning.”

Likely

“If Biden can get the Obama data­base, he will have a real leg up on the en­tire field.”

“Hil­lary was a shoo-in in 2008 as well.”

Un­likely

“Eliza­beth War­ren is a great­er threat.”

“There ap­pears to be strong re­sid­ual loy­alty to Hil­lary among es­tab­lish­ment Demo­crats, which prob­ably trumps the af­fec­tion that this same group holds for Biden.”

“Hard to see Biden as the real Hil­lary al­tern­at­ive.”

“They like him, but not as pres­id­ent.”

“He was just sane enough to get the VP nod, so who knows?”

Very un­likely

“Clin­ton has more bag­gage than gen­er­ally thought, but mal­aprop Joe would be no match.”

“Clin­ton is beat­able, but not by Biden. He’s just too goofy.”

“Biden is even more yes­ter­day’s story than the Clin­tons.”

“There will rise up some new shiny face to ec­lipse the aged and shop­worn Hil­lary, but it isn’t Joe Biden.”

“People are be­ing po­lite to him these days, but they will get blunt if needed: Re­tire, Joe.”

“The prob­lem the Dems have is that they must nom­in­ate an Afric­an-Amer­ic­an or a wo­man. No more old white guys.”

“Joe would be lucky to win Scrant­on, Pa.”

“Next ques­tion.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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