Poll: Shutdown Hurting Republicans in Battleground Districts

House Republicans are already taking a drubbing at home, a new poll of two dozen congressional districts shows.

The shutdown, as seen from downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday.
National Journal
Alex Seitz Wald
See more stories about...
Alex Seitz-Wald
Oct. 6, 2013, 3 a.m.

The gov­ern­ment shut­down is already hurt­ing the GOP in battle­ground con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts, ac­cord­ing to new polling in two dozen dis­tricts cur­rently con­trolled by Re­pub­lic­ans.

The sur­veys, com­mis­sioned by the lib­er­al group Mo­ve­On.org Polit­ic­al Ac­tion and con­duc­ted by Pub­lic Policy Polling, sug­gest that the gov­ern­ment shut­down may already be hav­ing a big­ger im­pact than most ana­lysts real­ize.

“Demo­crats must pick up 17 seats to win con­trol of the House. These poll res­ults make clear that if the elec­tion were held today, such a pickup would be well with­in reach,” said poll­ster Jim Wil­li­ams. “The sur­veys chal­lenge the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom that ger­ry­man­der­ing has put the House out of reach for Demo­crats.”

We’re still 13 months out from next year’s midterm elec­tions and the shut­down isn’t even over yet, so it’s too soon to draw any con­clu­sions, but this new sur­vey data is sup­por­ted by na­tion­al polls that sug­gest Amer­ic­ans are more likely to blame Re­pub­lic­ans for the shut­down than Pres­id­ent Obama and oth­er Demo­crats. Two polls re­leased last week, from CBS and Fox News, each found that the pub­lic blames Re­pub­lic­ans over Demo­crats by about a 10 point mar­gin. Only about 20 per­cent blamed both sides evenly.

The new PPP polls were con­duc­ted on Wed­nes­day, Thursday, and Fri­day of last week, with sample sizes of between 600-700 re­gistered voters in each of the 24 dis­tricts they sur­veyed. Most of the dis­tricts, in­clud­ing sev­er­al in Cali­for­nia, New York, Ohio, and Flor­ida, are con­sidered com­pet­it­ive.

In 17 of the dis­tricts, PPP found the Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bent trail­ing a gen­er­ic Demo­crat in a head-to-head con­test among re­gistered voters. Most of the in­cum­bents’ ap­prov­al rat­ings were un­der­wa­ter, mean­ing more re­spond­ents dis­ap­proved than ap­proved. 

Demo­crats are hop­ing to re­peat their ex­per­i­ence with the 1995 and 1996 shut­downs, which helped lead to the reelec­tion of Pres­id­ent Clin­ton and to mod­est suc­cess for House Demo­crats.

See the full list of dis­tricts polled at a glance here and in­di­vidu­al dis­tricts here: CA-10, CA-21, CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, KY-06, IL-13, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NV-03, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, OH-06, OH-14 PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, and WI-07.

What We're Following See More »
DRUG OFFENDERS
Obama Grants 111 More Commutations
7 hours ago
THE DETAILS

In a release Tuesday afternoon, the White House announced that President Obama has commuted and/or reduced the sentences of another 111 convicted criminals, mostly convicted of drug possession or trafficking. About 35 were serving life sentences.

BUT HE’S NOT ADVOCATING FOR IT
Grassley Open to Lame Duck Hearings on Garland
9 hours ago
THE LATEST

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said Monday he'd now be willing to hold a hearing on Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland in a lame-duck session of Congress. While he said he wouldn't push for it, he said if "Hillary Clinton wins the White House, and a majority of senators convinced him to do so," he would soften his previous opposition.

Source:
DEFINITELY MAYBE
Rubio Can’t Guarantee He’ll Serve a Full Term
10 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

We can call this the anti-Sherman-esque statement: If reelected, Marco Rubio ... might serve his whole term. Or he might not. The senator, who initially said he wouldn't run for a second term this year, now tells CNN that if reelected, he wouldn't necessarily serve all six years. “No one can make that commitment because you don’t know what the future is gonna hold in your life, personally or politically,” he said, before adding that he's prepared to make his Senate seat the last political office he ever holds.

Source:
DUTERTE BECAME PRESIDENT IN JUNE
Obama to Raise Multiple Issues in Meeting With Philippines Prez
11 hours ago
THE DETAILS

Since Rodrigo Duterte took over as president of the Philippines in June, he has made a serious of controversial statements and launched a war on drugs that has led to nearly 2000 deaths. He called the US ambassador to the Philippines, Philip Goldberg, "a gay son of a bitch." Next week, President Obama will meet with President Duterte at the East Asia Summit in Laos, where he " will raise concerns about some of the recent statements from the president of the Philippines," according to White House Deputy National Security advisor Ben Rhodes.

Source:
LATE SEPTEMBER
Conservatives Preparing ‘Dry Run’ for Constitutional Convention
11 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

The Convention of States Project, which seeks to force a constitutional convention under Article V of the Constitution, will hold a "dry run" in Colonial Williamsburg starting Sept. 21. "Several states have already followed the process in Article V to endorse the convention." Thirty-four are required to call an actual convention. "The dry run in Williamsburg is meant to show how one would work and focus on the changes and potential constitutional amendments that would be proposed."

Source:
×