Poll: Shutdown Hurting Republicans in Battleground Districts

House Republicans are already taking a drubbing at home, a new poll of two dozen congressional districts shows.

The shutdown, as seen from downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday.
National Journal
Alex Seitz Wald
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Alex Seitz-Wald
Oct. 6, 2013, 3 a.m.

The gov­ern­ment shut­down is already hurt­ing the GOP in battle­ground con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts, ac­cord­ing to new polling in two dozen dis­tricts cur­rently con­trolled by Re­pub­lic­ans.

The sur­veys, com­mis­sioned by the lib­er­al group Mo­ve­On.org Polit­ic­al Ac­tion and con­duc­ted by Pub­lic Policy Polling, sug­gest that the gov­ern­ment shut­down may already be hav­ing a big­ger im­pact than most ana­lysts real­ize.

“Demo­crats must pick up 17 seats to win con­trol of the House. These poll res­ults make clear that if the elec­tion were held today, such a pickup would be well with­in reach,” said poll­ster Jim Wil­li­ams. “The sur­veys chal­lenge the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom that ger­ry­man­der­ing has put the House out of reach for Demo­crats.”

We’re still 13 months out from next year’s midterm elec­tions and the shut­down isn’t even over yet, so it’s too soon to draw any con­clu­sions, but this new sur­vey data is sup­por­ted by na­tion­al polls that sug­gest Amer­ic­ans are more likely to blame Re­pub­lic­ans for the shut­down than Pres­id­ent Obama and oth­er Demo­crats. Two polls re­leased last week, from CBS and Fox News, each found that the pub­lic blames Re­pub­lic­ans over Demo­crats by about a 10 point mar­gin. Only about 20 per­cent blamed both sides evenly.

The new PPP polls were con­duc­ted on Wed­nes­day, Thursday, and Fri­day of last week, with sample sizes of between 600-700 re­gistered voters in each of the 24 dis­tricts they sur­veyed. Most of the dis­tricts, in­clud­ing sev­er­al in Cali­for­nia, New York, Ohio, and Flor­ida, are con­sidered com­pet­it­ive.

In 17 of the dis­tricts, PPP found the Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bent trail­ing a gen­er­ic Demo­crat in a head-to-head con­test among re­gistered voters. Most of the in­cum­bents’ ap­prov­al rat­ings were un­der­wa­ter, mean­ing more re­spond­ents dis­ap­proved than ap­proved. 

Demo­crats are hop­ing to re­peat their ex­per­i­ence with the 1995 and 1996 shut­downs, which helped lead to the reelec­tion of Pres­id­ent Clin­ton and to mod­est suc­cess for House Demo­crats.

See the full list of dis­tricts polled at a glance here and in­di­vidu­al dis­tricts here: CA-10, CA-21, CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, KY-06, IL-13, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NV-03, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, OH-06, OH-14 PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, and WI-07.

What We're Following See More »
STARTS LEGAL FUND FOR WH STAFF
Trump to Begin Covering His Own Legal Bills
16 hours ago
THE DETAILS
DISCUSSED THE MATTER FOR A NEW BOOK
Steele Says Follow the Money
17 hours ago
STAFF PICKS

"Christopher Steele, the former British intelligence officer who wrote the explosive dossier alleging ties between Donald Trump and Russia," says in a new book by The Guardian's Luke Harding that "Trump's land and hotel deals with Russians needed to be examined. ... Steele did not go into further detail, Harding said, but seemed to be referring to a 2008 home sale to the Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev. Richard Dearlove, who headed the UK foreign-intelligence unit MI6 between 1999 and 2004, said in April that Trump borrowed money from Russia for his business during the 2008 financial crisis."

Source:
BRITISH PUBLICIST CONNECTED TO TRUMP TOWER MEETING
Goldstone Ready to Meet with Mueller’s Team
17 hours ago
THE LATEST

"The British publicist who helped set up the fateful meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and a group of Russians at Trump Tower in June 2016 is ready to meet with Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller's office, according to several people familiar with the matter. Rob Goldstone has been living in Bangkok, Thailand, but has been communicating with Mueller's office through his lawyer, said a source close to Goldstone."

Source:
SPEAKING ON RUSSIAN STATE TV
Kislyak Says Trump Campaign Contacts Too Numerous to List
18 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak said on Wednesday that it would take him more than 20 minutes to name all of the Trump officials he's met with or spoken to on the phone. ... Kislyak made the remarks in a sprawling interview with Russia-1, a popular state-owned Russian television channel."

Source:
“BLOWING A SURE THING”
Sabato Moves Alabama to “Lean Democrat”
1 days ago
WHY WE CARE
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login