Handicappers: Shutdown Puts More Than 17 GOP Seats in Play

Republicans lose ground in 14 House districts, according to new rankings from Cook Political Report.

From left to right: Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT), Assistant House Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) and House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) listen during a news conference on Capitol Hill.
National Journal
Alex Seitz Wald
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Alex Seitz-Wald
Oct. 17, 2013, 2:47 p.m.

The gov­ern­ment shut­down and debt crisis has made 14 House seats more win­nable for Demo­crats, ac­cord­ing to new in­de­pend­ent rat­ings re­leased Thursday from The Cook Polit­ic­al Re­port. There are now — for the first time this cycle — more Re­pub­lic­an seats “in play” than the 17 Demo­crats would need to win in or­der to take the ma­jor­ity in 2014.

The rat­ings from the highly re­garded polit­ic­al han­di­cap­ping group, whose founder, Charlie Cook, is also a colum­nist for the Na­tion­al Journ­al, is the latest sign that the shut­down has ser­i­ously dam­aged Re­pub­lic­ans.

“Demo­crats still have a very up­hill climb to a ma­jor­ity, and it’s doubt­ful they can sus­tain this month’s mo­mentum for an­oth­er year. But Re­pub­lic­ans’ ac­tions have en­er­gized Demo­crat­ic fun­drais­ing and re­cruit­ing ef­forts and handed Demo­crats a po­ten­tially ef­fect­ive mes­sage,” Cook’s Dav­id Wasser­man ex­plains. Ten Demo­crat­ic seats re­main “toss ups,” mean­ing the party would prob­ably need to win at least 20 seats to take back the speak­er’s gavel.

One West Vir­gin­ia dis­trict, cur­rently held by Demo­crat­ic Rep. Nick Ra­hall, moved in the GOP’s fa­vor, from a rat­ing of “lean Demo­crat­ic” to “toss up.” But 12 dis­tricts cur­rently held by Re­pub­lic­ans moved in the dir­ec­tion of Demo­crats, while two dis­tricts cur­rently held by Demo­crats so­lid­i­fied.

It’s way too early to know if these move­ments will hold un­til Novem­ber of next year, but its un­usu­al for Cook to move so many dis­tricts in one dir­ec­tion all at once. Demo­crats were los­ing alti­tude in gen­er­ic bal­lot tests un­til the shut­down, only to see their num­bers climb 5.5 per­cent­age points over the past two weeks. But thanks to ger­ry­man­der­ing, ana­lysts say Demo­crats need some­where closer to a 7-point gen­er­ic bal­lot lead to re­take the House.

What We're Following See More »
WILL U.S. RESPOND?
Russia Accidentally Bombs U.S.-Backed Syrian Forces
2 hours ago
BREAKING
CARSON UP NEXT
Zinke Confirmed As Interior Secretary
4 hours ago
BREAKING
GOODLATTE SENDING LETTER TO SESSIONS THIS WEEK
House GOP Blocks Dems on Trump Ethics
5 hours ago
THE DETAILS

On a party-line vote, "the House Judiciary Committee defeated a Democratic effort Tuesday to obtain any information the Justice Department has on possible conflicts, ethical violations or improper connections to Russia by President Donald Trump and his associates. The committee’s Republican chairman, Bob Goodlatte, opposed the resolution, even as he acknowledged the Justice Department hasn’t acted on his own request for a briefing on alleged Russian interference with the U.S. election and potential ties to the Trump campaign." He said he'll be sending a letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions requesting him to pursue "all legitimate investigative leads" into those matters.

Source:
WAITING FOR NEWS CYCLE TO REFRESH
Trump Holds Off on New Travel Ban
5 hours ago
THE LATEST

"President Donald Trump won’t sign a revised travel ban on Wednesday as had been anticipated, two senior administration officials confirmed. One of the officials indicated that the delay was due to the busy news cycle, and that when Trump does sign the revised order, he wanted it to get plenty of attention."

Source:
BUT THEY MUST PAY
Donald Trump Affirms Support For NATO
17 hours ago
UPDATE

Near the end of his speech Tuesday, Donald Trump made a firm proclamation affirming his support for NATO. "We strongly support NATO, an alliance forged through the bonds of two World Wars that dethroned fascism, and a Cold War that defeated communism," Trump said. However, he continued on, "our partners must meet their financial obligations."

×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login