The Keystone to Congressional Turnover

Pennsylvania will see several new members next year and plenty of midterm activity.

FILE - In this Dec. 15, 2016, file photo, U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa., left, U.S. Rep. Tom Marino, R-Pa., center left, and U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., right, watch as President-elect Donald Trump, center right, departs a rally in Hershey, Pa. The Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court struck down the state's congressional map in a 4-3 decision Monday, Jan. 22, 2018, granting a major victory to Democrats who charged that the 18 districts were unconstitutionally gerrymandered to benefit Republicans.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke
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Kyle Trygstad
Feb. 1, 2018, 10:49 a.m.

It’s unlikely there will be a House delegation that faces as much turnover this cycle as Pennsylvania, which saw three incumbents announce their retirements in January and is holding a special election next month—all while facing the potential for an entirely new, court-ordered congressional map.

Democrat Bob Brady’s retirement announcement Wednesday came less than a week after Republican Pat Meehan did the same and four weeks after Republican Bill Shuster.

That added to a casualty list that includes a fourth retirement (Republican Charlie Dent), a Senate candidate (Republican Lou Barletta), and a resignation (Republican Tim Murphy). Republican Tom Marino could have been another resignation, but he withdrew from consideration as drug czar in October.

Meanwhile, along with the open seats currently held by Meehan, Dent, and Murphy that could flip, four incumbents are facing the possibility of competitive reelection campaigns on the current map and are included on the Cook Political Report‘s House ratings chart. That includes Democrat Matt Cartwright and Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Costello, and Lloyd Smucker. The latter two were outraised by challengers in the fourth quarter.

Kyle Trygstad


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