There will be plenty of debate over what the result Tuesday in Georgia’s 6th District means for 2018.
If Democrats win, is it a glaring sign of electoral distress for House Republicans, or is the record-breaking fundraising by Democrat Jon Ossoff and comparatively underwhelming campaign by Karen Handel impossible to replicate on a mass scale and therefore hollow? Concerned Republicans would hope for the latter.
If Ossoff loses, are there enough other positive signals to outweigh Democrats’ disappointment and still provide hope for progress, or will it prove debilitatingly deflating for the grassroots? Democrats would certainly root for the former.
Regardless of what happens, there are plenty of other notable variables worth watching as the cycle unfolds that will combine to set the narrative, lead to adjusted race ratings, and undoubtedly affect turnout: Republican retirements, President Trump’s approval rating (currently at 40 percent in the RCP average), the generic congressional ballot, the Virginia governor election, the quality and quantity of Democrats running in GOP-leaning districts, House campaign committee fundraising, and the popularity of major Republican legislation.
— Kyle Trygstad