Poll: How Would a Primary Challenge by Sen. Bernie Sanders Affect Hillary Clinton in 2016?

National Journal
Feb. 6, 2015, midnight

(Win Mc­Namee/Getty)Q: How would a primary chal­lenge by Sen. Bernie Sanders af­fect Hil­lary Clin­ton in 2016?

DEMO­CRATS (78 VOTES)

Strengthen Clin­ton: 40%
Weak­en Clin­ton: 7%
Have no ef­fect: 53%

Strengthen Clin­ton

“Hil­lary Clin­ton will be buoyed by put­ting to­geth­er a strong op­er­a­tion and a strong show­ing.”

“Might pull her away from Wall Street a little — a good thing.”

“It will make her sharpen her mes­sage to middle-class and low-in­come voters, which she has to get a handle on quickly.”

“Best thing she could ask for. A weak foil from the left, and not War­ren.”

Weak­en Clin­ton

“I nev­er buy in­to the the­ory that spend­ing money to con­trast your­self with a hardened mem­ber of your party is a good thing.”

“Sanders cam­paign would be an ex­er­cise in self-in­dul­gence. To win, Demo­crats have to both en­er­gize the base and reach the middle. Sanders makes that harder to do.”

Have no ef­fect

“If he ac­tu­ally runs, it will be a small protest vote.”

“Sanders could do re­l­at­ively well in lib­er­al Iowa and neigh­bor­ing N.H. and em­bar­rass Clin­ton, with no long-range dam­age.”

Q: How would a primary chal­lenge by Sen. Bernie Sanders af­fect Hil­lary Clin­ton in 2016?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (87 VOTES)

Strengthen Clin­ton: 36%
Weak­en Clin­ton: 16%
Have no ef­fect: 48%

Strengthen Clin­ton

“She’ll eas­ily beat him, and he’ll make her look like a cent­rist.”

“Be­cause the Left needs to re­lease some steam, it’s best done with a third-rate primary can­did­ate rather than a real third-party chal­lenge.”

“She gets to win something. Do that without ser­i­ous dam­age, and it’s al­ways a plus. Brad­ley’s chal­lenge helped Gore in 2000.”

“The worst thing for Hil­lary Clin­ton is a year­long coron­a­tion. Break­ing a sweat in the primary would make her a bet­ter can­did­ate.”

Weak­en Clin­ton

“Both he and War­ren drive her to the left.”

“A chal­lenge from the left is her biggest vul­ner­ab­il­ity. It will fur­ther ali­en­ate Hil­lary from the party base and give her more left-wing po­s­i­tions to de­fend in the gen­er­al elec­tion.”

Have no ef­fect

“Bernie Sanders might as well be Col. Sanders.”

“Sanders is un­likely to get enough steam to have a real ef­fect on Hil­lary’s mo­mentum.”

“Her biggest prob­lem is in White House, not Iowa or New Hamp­shire.”

“Bernie Sanders is no Eliza­beth War­ren.”

… … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders  Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders  Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

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