Forecasters Should Resist the Urge to Downgrade California Dems’ Chances

Pitting all parties’ candidates against one another in Tuesday’s oddly structured primary won’t be a good predictor of November’s outcome, history shows.

LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 02: A voter places her ballot into a ballot box after voting for the midterm elections at Los Angeles County Lifeguard headquarters on November 2, 2010 in the Venice neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. Former eBay CEO and Republican candidate Meg Whitman is running against California Attorney General and Democratic candidate Jerry Brown for the Governor's seat while U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is in a tight race against Republican senatorial candidate and former head of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
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