Predicting the Next Ten Years in American Politics

Political insiders are asked about their predictions for the years ahead.

President Barack Obama gives his State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015.
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
Sarah Mimms
Add to Briefcase
Sarah Mimms
Dec. 11, 2015, 5 a.m.

Q: Make one pre­dic­tion about the next 10 years in Amer­ic­an polit­ics.

DEMO­CRATS

GOP Dis­cord

“The na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Party con­tin­ues to dis­in­teg­rate.”

Party Con­trol

“The Demo­crats will re­bound loc­ally.”

Third Party

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party splits in two.”

“Our im­mense par­tis­an di­vide will fi­nally lead to a rise in a real third party. Or both the Demo­crat­ic and Re­pub­lic­an parties will split in­to two parts, the ex­treme and the sane pieces.”

“There will be con­sist­ent vi­able in­de­pend­ent can­did­ates in statewide races in re­ac­tion to the hy­per-par­tis­an­ship of the two main polit­ic­al parties. But, be­cause of ger­ry­mandered dis­tricts, le­gis­lat­ive and con­gres­sion­al races will be dom­in­ated by the two main parties.”

“The emer­gence of a third party based upon some­what con­ser­vat­ive eco­nom­ic prin­ciples, so­cial tol­er­ance, and strong na­tion­al se­cur­ity.”

“At least one of the ma­jor parties will frac­ture off its fringe wing and run a vi­able third-party pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate.”

“More in­de­pend­ents are elec­ted and a le­git­im­ate in­de­pend­ent runs for pres­id­ent, but there won’t be enough agree­ment for an in­de­pend­ent party.”

Pres­id­en­tial Pre­dic­tions

“A Clin­ton-Ry­an grid­lock will lead to a Clin­ton-Ry­an 2020 cam­paign. The race will be about who caused
the re­ces­sion.”

“Amer­ica will elect its first fe­male pres­id­ent in 2016, and by 2024, its first His­pan­ic.”

“Ari­zona will vote Demo­crat­ic in the pres­id­en­tial elec­tion.”

“New Hamp­shire and Iowa will re­main first in the pres­id­en­tial primary pro­cess.”

Demo­graph­ics

“More non­white voters will be re­gistered to vote than white voters.”

“Wo­men will dom­in­ate elect­or­al polit­ics as an an­swer to massive dys­func­tion.”

Grid­lock

“So­cial me­dia is go­ing to con­tin­ue to dis­rupt the status quo—in a bad way. As balkan­ized as things are today, they are go­ing to get worse as nar­row spe­cial in­terests use so­cial me­dia to bully and agit­ate to get their way.”

“More grid­lock, lower turnout.”

“We will come to our senses. A re­spons­ible con­ser­vat­ive party will re­con­sti­t­ute it­self, and to­geth­er with those who then lead the Obama co­ali­tion, a new prag­mat­ic con­sensus on for­eign and do­mest­ic policy will [emerge].”

Guns

“We will take on gun con­trol.”

“There will be a sub­stan­tial in­crease in vi­ol­ence by gun[s].”

On­line Vot­ing

“Trus­ted tech­no­logy will ex­ist to al­low se­cure on­line vot­ing. The Re­pub­lic­ans will op­pose it. In 20 years, the ma­jor­ity of Amer­ic­ans will vote for pres­id­ent on­line.”

Q: Make one pre­dic­tion about the next 10 years in Amer­ic­an polit­ics.

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS

Fu­ture of the GOP

“Re­pub­lic­ans will either flour­ish due to nom­in­at­ing Ru­bio or will cease to func­tion as a cred­ible na­tion­al party due to the nom­in­a­tion of Trump.”

Party Con­trol

“Re­pub­lic­ans take over more and more loc­al gov­ern­ments around the na­tion.”

“GOP will con­trol the House that whole 10 years. GOP will con­trol the Sen­ate at least eight of the 10 years.”

Third Party

“A vi­able third polit­ic­al party will rise, caus­ing one of the cur­rent two parties (likely the GOP) to at­rophy to the point it is no longer com­pet­it­ive.”

“Neither Dems nor GOP will have a ma­jor­ity in either cham­ber. In­de­pend­ents, third-party groups will con­tin­ue to grow. [Gov­ern­ment] by co­ali­tion will first ap­pear in USA by mid-’20s.”

“An in­de­pend­ent can­did­ate will win the pres­id­ency.”

Pres­id­en­tial Pre­dic­tions

“Pres­id­ent Marco Ru­bio will have com­pleted two suc­cess­ful terms as pres­id­ent.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party will not win an­oth­er pres­id­en­tial elec­tion in my life­time.”

“Iowa and New Hamp­shire can kiss their first-in-the-na­tion status good­bye. The rest of Amer­ica is tired of see­ing every pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate vis­it every yogurt shop and hard­ware store in these states while ig­nor­ing oth­ers ex­cept to raise money.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party will nom­in­ate someone oth­er than a white male for pres­id­ent.”

Demo­graph­ics

“Re­pub­lic­ans will ad­apt more quickly than any­one thinks pos­sible at the mo­ment to the demo­graph­ic changes and chal­lenges of the New Amer­ica.”

“By 2026, at least 20 per­cent of Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans will be vot­ing Re­pub­lic­an.”

Cam­paign Fin­ance

“The Su­preme Court will re­in­ter­pret its leg­al fic­tion re­gard­ing su­per PACs, and cam­paign fund­ing will re­turn to its more tra­di­tion­al mod­el.”

“All lim­its on cam­paign fin­ance will be elim­in­ated, save for im­me­di­ate and com­plete re­port­ing.”

“Elec­tions will con­tin­ue to get more ex­pens­ive, more money will be raised, and cam­paign­ing will start even earli­er. There will come the time that the pub­lic will rise up and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ ”

Mi­crotar­get­ing

“Broad­cast ad­vert­ising will de­cline in im­port­ance and as a per­cent­age of cam­paign budgets, as cam­paigns mi­crotar­get voters in­stead.”

 … … … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

What We're Following See More »
SAYS WALL WILL NEVER BE BUILT
Report: Kelly Calls Trump “Uninformed”
5 hours ago
THE LATEST

"White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly told Democratic lawmakers Wednesday that the United States will never construct a physical wall along the entire stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border and that some of President Trump’s campaign promises on immigration were 'uninformed.'”

Source:
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IN SUSPICIOUS CHECKS FLAGGED
Mueller’s Team Scrutinizing Russian Embassy Transactions
6 hours ago
THE LATEST
TOLD NOT TO DISCUSS WHITE HOUSE WORK
Bannon’s Attorney Passed Along Questions to White House
6 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Steve Bannon’s attorney relayed questions, in real time, to the White House during a House Intelligence Committee interview of the former Trump chief strategist" on Tuesday. "Bannon’s attorney Bill Burck was asking the White House counsel’s office by phone whether his client could answer the questions. He was told by that office not to discuss his work on the transition or in the White House."

Source:
HAS LED ENERGY ASSN FOR TEN YEARS
Jack Gerard Stepping Down from API
6 hours ago
THE DETAILS

"The top lobbyist for the U.S. oil-and-gas industry is stepping down after 10 years on the job. Jack Gerard, the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, sent an email to his staff on Wednesday morning saying that he decided not to seek another five-year contract with the nation’s largest oil-and-gas industry trade association."

Source:
MORE FALLOUT FROM “SHITHOLE” COMMENT
CBC, Judiciary Committee Dems Move to Censure Trump
7 hours ago
THE LATEST
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login