Predicting the Next Ten Years in American Politics

Political insiders are asked about their predictions for the years ahead.

President Barack Obama gives his State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2015.
AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
Sarah Mimms
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Sarah Mimms
Dec. 11, 2015, 5 a.m.

Q: Make one pre­dic­tion about the next 10 years in Amer­ic­an polit­ics.

DEMO­CRATS

GOP Dis­cord

“The na­tion­al Re­pub­lic­an Party con­tin­ues to dis­in­teg­rate.”

Party Con­trol

“The Demo­crats will re­bound loc­ally.”

Third Party

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party splits in two.”

“Our im­mense par­tis­an di­vide will fi­nally lead to a rise in a real third party. Or both the Demo­crat­ic and Re­pub­lic­an parties will split in­to two parts, the ex­treme and the sane pieces.”

“There will be con­sist­ent vi­able in­de­pend­ent can­did­ates in statewide races in re­ac­tion to the hy­per-par­tis­an­ship of the two main polit­ic­al parties. But, be­cause of ger­ry­mandered dis­tricts, le­gis­lat­ive and con­gres­sion­al races will be dom­in­ated by the two main parties.”

“The emer­gence of a third party based upon some­what con­ser­vat­ive eco­nom­ic prin­ciples, so­cial tol­er­ance, and strong na­tion­al se­cur­ity.”

“At least one of the ma­jor parties will frac­ture off its fringe wing and run a vi­able third-party pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate.”

“More in­de­pend­ents are elec­ted and a le­git­im­ate in­de­pend­ent runs for pres­id­ent, but there won’t be enough agree­ment for an in­de­pend­ent party.”

Pres­id­en­tial Pre­dic­tions

“A Clin­ton-Ry­an grid­lock will lead to a Clin­ton-Ry­an 2020 cam­paign. The race will be about who caused
the re­ces­sion.”

“Amer­ica will elect its first fe­male pres­id­ent in 2016, and by 2024, its first His­pan­ic.”

“Ari­zona will vote Demo­crat­ic in the pres­id­en­tial elec­tion.”

“New Hamp­shire and Iowa will re­main first in the pres­id­en­tial primary pro­cess.”

Demo­graph­ics

“More non­white voters will be re­gistered to vote than white voters.”

“Wo­men will dom­in­ate elect­or­al polit­ics as an an­swer to massive dys­func­tion.”

Grid­lock

“So­cial me­dia is go­ing to con­tin­ue to dis­rupt the status quo—in a bad way. As balkan­ized as things are today, they are go­ing to get worse as nar­row spe­cial in­terests use so­cial me­dia to bully and agit­ate to get their way.”

“More grid­lock, lower turnout.”

“We will come to our senses. A re­spons­ible con­ser­vat­ive party will re­con­sti­t­ute it­self, and to­geth­er with those who then lead the Obama co­ali­tion, a new prag­mat­ic con­sensus on for­eign and do­mest­ic policy will [emerge].”

Guns

“We will take on gun con­trol.”

“There will be a sub­stan­tial in­crease in vi­ol­ence by gun[s].”

On­line Vot­ing

“Trus­ted tech­no­logy will ex­ist to al­low se­cure on­line vot­ing. The Re­pub­lic­ans will op­pose it. In 20 years, the ma­jor­ity of Amer­ic­ans will vote for pres­id­ent on­line.”

Q: Make one pre­dic­tion about the next 10 years in Amer­ic­an polit­ics.

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS

Fu­ture of the GOP

“Re­pub­lic­ans will either flour­ish due to nom­in­at­ing Ru­bio or will cease to func­tion as a cred­ible na­tion­al party due to the nom­in­a­tion of Trump.”

Party Con­trol

“Re­pub­lic­ans take over more and more loc­al gov­ern­ments around the na­tion.”

“GOP will con­trol the House that whole 10 years. GOP will con­trol the Sen­ate at least eight of the 10 years.”

Third Party

“A vi­able third polit­ic­al party will rise, caus­ing one of the cur­rent two parties (likely the GOP) to at­rophy to the point it is no longer com­pet­it­ive.”

“Neither Dems nor GOP will have a ma­jor­ity in either cham­ber. In­de­pend­ents, third-party groups will con­tin­ue to grow. [Gov­ern­ment] by co­ali­tion will first ap­pear in USA by mid-’20s.”

“An in­de­pend­ent can­did­ate will win the pres­id­ency.”

Pres­id­en­tial Pre­dic­tions

“Pres­id­ent Marco Ru­bio will have com­pleted two suc­cess­ful terms as pres­id­ent.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party will not win an­oth­er pres­id­en­tial elec­tion in my life­time.”

“Iowa and New Hamp­shire can kiss their first-in-the-na­tion status good­bye. The rest of Amer­ica is tired of see­ing every pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate vis­it every yogurt shop and hard­ware store in these states while ig­nor­ing oth­ers ex­cept to raise money.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Party will nom­in­ate someone oth­er than a white male for pres­id­ent.”

Demo­graph­ics

“Re­pub­lic­ans will ad­apt more quickly than any­one thinks pos­sible at the mo­ment to the demo­graph­ic changes and chal­lenges of the New Amer­ica.”

“By 2026, at least 20 per­cent of Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans will be vot­ing Re­pub­lic­an.”

Cam­paign Fin­ance

“The Su­preme Court will re­in­ter­pret its leg­al fic­tion re­gard­ing su­per PACs, and cam­paign fund­ing will re­turn to its more tra­di­tion­al mod­el.”

“All lim­its on cam­paign fin­ance will be elim­in­ated, save for im­me­di­ate and com­plete re­port­ing.”

“Elec­tions will con­tin­ue to get more ex­pens­ive, more money will be raised, and cam­paign­ing will start even earli­er. There will come the time that the pub­lic will rise up and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ ”

Mi­crotar­get­ing

“Broad­cast ad­vert­ising will de­cline in im­port­ance and as a per­cent­age of cam­paign budgets, as cam­paigns mi­crotar­get voters in­stead.”

 … … … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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