Poll: How Will the Decision to Delay Keystone XL Affect Your Party’s Prospects in November?

Participants in the protests carry a giant faux pipeline across from the North Lawn of the White House on Sunday Nov. 6, 2011.
National Journal
Michael Catalini, Sarah Mimms and Peter Bell
Michael Catalini Sarah Mimms Peter Bell
May 1, 2014, 5 p.m.

Does the de­cision to delay the Key­stone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no ef­fect on your party’s pro­spects in Novem­ber?

DEMO­CRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No ef­fect: 53%

Help

“Helps be­cause if he ap­proved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who sup­port it can bang the pres­id­ent; those op­posed can lobby the ad­min­is­tra­tion to block it.”

“Good for the base.”

“Tap dan­cing in place would seem to be the or­der of the day, with post-midterm ap­prov­al ex­pec­ted.”

“Red-state Dems can claim vic­tory on the delay, and the en­viros can still or­gan­ize around the threat.”

Hurt

“While it mol­li­fies the en­vir­on­ment­al base, it adds to the nar­rat­ive of Demo­crat­ic feck­less­ness, here and abroad.”

“We need to pass it. We are mak­ing great pro­gress on clean, af­ford­able en­ergy. Keep it go­ing.”

“The Demo­crat­ic base is not af­fected, no mat­ter what Tom Stey­er wants, but in­de­pend­ents are fur­ther com­prom­ised.”

“The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we’re stand­ing in the way. I wish the spot­ted owls voted in midterms.”

No ef­fect

“Nobody out­side of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care.”

“It cuts both ways. It gives ad­voc­ates a cudgel with which to ham­mer the pres­id­ent and prove their dis­tance, and it keeps op­pon­ents fully en­gaged through the elec­tions.”

No de­cision means no im­pact.”

Does the de­cision to delay the Key­stone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no ef­fect on your party’s pro­spects in Novem­ber?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No ef­fect: 13%

Help

“It fur­ther de­mor­al­izes part of the Demo­crat­ic base — labor uni­ons and oth­ers in­ter­ested in eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Shows that he fa­vors en­vir­on­ment­al­ists over jobs. Will par­tic­u­larly hurt Landrieu, Be­gich, Pry­or, Walsh, and Hagan.”

” ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is an easy slo­gan for GOP vo­lun­teers to re­mem­ber, and it works.”

“Obama has pivoted to everything but cre­at­ing jobs dur­ing his ten­ure.”

“In many key states, it’s one more data point about how this ad­min­is­tra­tion doesn’t get it when it comes to job cre­ation and eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Dem can­did­ates will say they op­pose the ad­min­is­tra­tion, but they can­not hide from it.”

“The ad­min­is­tra­tion looks both polit­ic­al and weak with the de­cision to delay Key­stone.”

“A dither­ing ad­min­is­tra­tion is a be­ne­fit for our side.”

“Key­stone will be an is­sue in some key races, but his lack of lead­er­ship will be a theme around the coun­try.”

“It cre­ates a very pos­it­ive policy con­trast for Re­pub­lic­ans that en­com­passes the huge is­sue of jobs/eco­nomy.”

“It blunts the anti-Koch rhet­or­ic of the left by pan­der­ing to Stey­er.”

Hurt

“When you can use the uni­ons against the pres­id­ent, it’s nev­er a good day for the home team.”

No ef­fect

“Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren’t mak­ing de­cisions based on Key­stone.”

“Most people don’t care about Key­stone.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

DEMO­CRATS (89 VOTES)

Help: 24%
Hurt: 23%
No ef­fect: 53%

Help

“Helps be­cause if he ap­proved it now, could hurt turnout among the base. Those Dems who sup­port it can bang the pres­id­ent; those op­posed can lobby the ad­min­is­tra­tion to block it.”

“Good for the base.”

“Tap dan­cing in place would seem to be the or­der of the day, with post-midterm ap­prov­al ex­pec­ted.”

“Red-state Dems can claim vic­tory on the delay, and the en­viros can still or­gan­ize around the threat.”

Hurt

“While it mol­li­fies the en­vir­on­ment­al base, it adds to the nar­rat­ive of Demo­crat­ic feck­less­ness, here and abroad.”

“We need to pass it. We are mak­ing great pro­gress on clean, af­ford­able en­ergy. Keep it go­ing.”

“The Demo­crat­ic base is not af­fected, no mat­ter what Tom Stey­er wants, but in­de­pend­ents are fur­ther com­prom­ised.”

“The voters just see this as jobs, jobs, jobs; and we’re stand­ing in the way. I wish the spot­ted owls voted in midterms.”

No ef­fect

“Nobody out­side of the coastal elites and some folks in the states where it would go really care.”

“It cuts both ways. It gives ad­voc­ates a cudgel with which to ham­mer the pres­id­ent and prove their dis­tance, and it keeps op­pon­ents fully en­gaged through the elec­tions.”

No de­cision means no im­pact.”

Does the decision to delay the Keystone XL pipeline help, hurt, or have no effect on your party's prospects in November?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 Votes)

Help: 75%
Hurt: 12%
No ef­fect: 13%

Help

“It fur­ther de­mor­al­izes part of the Demo­crat­ic base — labor uni­ons and oth­ers in­ter­ested in eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Shows that he fa­vors en­vir­on­ment­al­ists over jobs. Will par­tic­u­larly hurt Landrieu, Be­gich, Pry­or, Walsh, and Hagan.”

” ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is an easy slo­gan for GOP vo­lun­teers to re­mem­ber, and it works.”

“Obama has pivoted to everything but cre­at­ing jobs dur­ing his ten­ure.”

“In many key states, it’s one more data point about how this ad­min­is­tra­tion doesn’t get it when it comes to job cre­ation and eco­nom­ic growth.”

“Dem can­did­ates will say they op­pose the ad­min­is­tra­tion, but they can­not hide from it.”

“The ad­min­is­tra­tion looks both polit­ic­al and weak with the de­cision to delay Key­stone.”

“A dither­ing ad­min­is­tra­tion is a be­ne­fit for our side.”

“Key­stone will be an is­sue in some key races, but his lack of lead­er­ship will be a theme around the coun­try.”

“It cre­ates a very pos­it­ive policy con­trast for Re­pub­lic­ans that en­com­passes the huge is­sue of jobs/eco­nomy.”

“It blunts the anti-Koch rhet­or­ic of the left by pan­der­ing to Stey­er.”

Hurt

“When you can use the uni­ons against the pres­id­ent, it’s nev­er a good day for the home team.”

No ef­fect

“Dumb policy-wise, but real voters aren’t mak­ing de­cisions based on Key­stone.”

“Most people don’t care about Key­stone.”

… … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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