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This is not a wave election. It's simply an election being fought on terrain that is highly favorable to Republicans.
The Senate most plausibly turns on the survival of Alaska's Begich, Colorado's Udall, and the outcome of the open contest in Iowa between Braley and Ernst.
In quest for seats, this is not a year when Democrats are likely to get a disproportionate share of the breaks.
Although Republicans still appear to have the edge in winning the Senate majority, this fight could still go either way.
Two things may be keeping Republican strategists up at night in their quest for a Senate majority: money and the Democratic ground game.
Midterms are generally referenda on the incumbent president, and Obama's latest overall approval ratings are among his lowest yet.
Data-crunchers and political pundits are coming to largely the same conclusions about the battle for control.