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Americans reeling from the economy still resent the policy choices that President Obama and congressional Democrats made early on.
At this point, a seven-seat gain would seem the most likely outcome for Senate Republicans.
If there is a wave, it is the open Senate seats in Colorado and Iowa, as well as the seats held by Sens. Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen, that will sound the alarm.
Now there appears to be a real question of whether Republicans may need to gross eight seats in order to net six.
This is not a wave election. It's simply an election being fought on terrain that is highly favorable to Republicans.
The Senate most plausibly turns on the survival of Alaska's Begich, Colorado's Udall, and the outcome of the open contest in Iowa between Braley and Ernst.
In quest for seats, this is not a year when Democrats are likely to get a disproportionate share of the breaks.