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Poll: What Are the Chances of Congress Overhauling Immigration This Year? Poll: What Are the Chances of Congress Overhauling Immigration This Ye...

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Poll: What Are the Chances of Congress Overhauling Immigration This Year?

(Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

June 12, 2014

On balance, what are the chances that Congress will pass an overhaul of the immigration system this year?*


Very likely: 0%
Somewhat likely: 7%
Somewhat unlikely: 26%
Very unlikely: 67%

Somewhat unlikely


"Message to GOP on immigration: No guts, no glory!"

"Lost opportunity of the Congress; only a Hail Mary during the lame-duck session gets us to yes this year."

"Republicans might get motivated preelection, but most of them are in safe, white districts. Don't need those folks' votes."

"The fault line runs through the House Republican caucus, and the odds slightly favor those who want no action."

Very unlikely

"The tea-party caucus in the House of Representatives rules."

"Immigration reform was on life support, and Cantor's defeat pulled the plug."

"There seems to be little political impetus for Republicans at this point (on anything, not just immigration)."

"House Republicans won't save themselves from losing the next four presidential elections."

"No matter what Boehner et al say, their right wing simply won't tolerate it. They've already written Latinos off for the midterms."


"It will take political guts for Republicans to do what's right—and therefore it won't happen."

"Neither side really wants reform. The Democrats want to blame the Republicans for not reforming the system, and the Republicans want cheap labor without the benefits of citizenship."

"Same is true for 95 percent of all the other issues facing Congress."

"Care for some tea with that deportation paper?"

"See [coverage] of the Virginia congressional primary."


On balance, what are the chances that Congress will pass an overhaul of the immigration system this year?*


Very likely: 0%
Somewhat likely: 10%
Somewhat unlikely: 25%
Very unlikely: 65%

Somewhat likely

"GOP needs to take it off the table."

"If Republicans want to be credible in the presidential race in '16, this is an opening bid."

Somewhat unlikely

"Congressional Republicans are poised to gain seats in November, and they aren't going to risk that by pushing immigration reform."

"Do we really want to go through a third presidential primary process risking someone pandering on this issue? If Republicans can't get it done before the election, take care of it during the lame duck."

"Too easy to do nothing. They're good at it."

"No real appetite on the Republican side, and Dems would rather have the political issue than a bill."

"There will be a major overreaction to the Cantor loss."

Very unlikely

"This really was not what Eric Cantor's loss was about, but conventional wisdom will hold otherwise."

"Why change a do-nothing strategy when it's working?"

"Cantor loss sinks any chance, which was very slim."

"If Republicans ever figure out how important this is, they will do something, but the Democrats will not let them do anything."

"Are there any profiles in courage in the Senate and House? Not in an election year."

"Is that a pig I see flying? Nope? Then I'll say, 'Very unlikely.' "

*The majority of respondents answered this question before Eric Cantor's primary loss.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

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