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Poll: If the Midterm Elections Were Held Today, Who Would Win? Poll: If the Midterm Elections Were Held Today, Who Would Win?

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Political Insiders Poll

Poll: If the Midterm Elections Were Held Today, Who Would Win?

If the midterm election were held today, what would be the most likely result?


Status quo: 72%
Democrats take the House and keep the Senate: 6%
GOP takes the Senate and keeps the House: 21%
Democrats take the House, GOP takes the Senate: 1%


Status quo

"It will be two more years of pain for the Obama administration."

"People hate Congress but love their representatives."


"Notwithstanding the Obamacare debacle, the demographics are still too strong for a shift in either chamber."

"This is all speculation until we see how Obamacare works out some time around March."

"Smaller margins in both houses, but so far nobody has made a clear case for change."

"No tsunamis have hit yet."


"Right now, status quo rules the day."

Democrats take the House and keep the Senate

"The public understands that you are either part of the problem or part of the solution. Republicans are clearly part of the problem with Obamacare."

GOP takes the Senate and keeps the House

"If it were today, the punishment of Obama would lose D's the Senate, but there is a world of time left."

"Obama has to make the case and give his candidates cover. He is not doing that."

"Senate Dems are down right now but on the way back as the public grows tired of Obamacare-bashing."

Democrats take the House, GOP takes the Senate

"The pent-up anger and frustration with D.C. is a dark cloud hanging over Capitol Hill. If the weather doesn't clear up, my forecast is a big storm next November that will blow away House Republicans and Senate Democrats."


If the midterm election were held today, what would be the most likely result?


Status quo: 42%
Democrats take the House and keep the Senate: 0%
GOP takes the Senate and keeps the House: 58%
Democrats take the House, GOP takes the Senate: 0%

Status quo

"Republicans have a chance to take the Senate, but they're certainly not there yet."

"R's will gain in both houses, but fall short of Senate control."

"If the election were held today, Republicans would retain the House (with a slightly reduced majority) and gain several Senate seats, but not enough for a majority."

"Both parties (Republicans in particular) are adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Missouri and Indiana from 2012 come to mind as far as the Senate is concerned."

"Republicans pick up four, possibly five, seats in the Senate but can't get the sixth they need."

GOP takes the Senate and keeps the House

"The wave is building. Get ready."

"The Democrats are hemorrhaging."

"The playing field is breaking way open, as Democrats are forced to run this election marathon with crushing Obamacare ankle weights."

"The generic ballot today would indicate big GOP gains."

"If the election were held today they would vote Obama as Grinch in chief."

"National Republican Senatorial Committee's top-notch recruiting job, plus a lousy political environment, spells the end to the Democratic majority."

"Obamacare, Obamacare, Obamacare."

"We are not even at the end of the beginning for Obamacare fallout. GOP wins seven seats net, picks up a few House seats."

"Obamacare is the gift that keeps on giving."

"The only prescription to fix Obamacare is a Republican Senate, and voters will want to take the cure, come next November."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.

This article appears in the December 7, 2013 edition of National Journal Magazine as Political Insiders Poll.

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