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Poll: How Likely Is the United States to Breach the Debt Ceiling? Poll: How Likely Is the United States to Breach the Debt Ceiling?

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Political Insiders Poll

Poll: How Likely Is the United States to Breach the Debt Ceiling?

How likely is it that the debt-ceiling limit won't be raised in time to avoid default?


Very likely: 21%
Likely: 23%
Not likely: 57%


Very Likely

"For some reason, the GOP thinks this is their Waterloo."

"We went off the rails on the continuing resolution, and the crazy train hasn't stopped yet."


"This Congress has shown a willingness to do anything to make a political point, even against our national interest."

"That doesn't mean there will be a default, though."


"The inmates are in control of the asylum."


"The tea-party conservatives are like the kid who blows stuff up in the microwave just to see what happens."

"The business community that funds many of the nihilist Republicans will force them to the table."

Not likely

"The only surefire way for Republicans to lose Congress would be to allow a debt default."

"If the Republicans create default through political games and crash the markets, the backlash across the board will be brutal."

"The GOP appears wisely to have chosen the budget rather than the debt ceiling to fight over—shutdown is far less destructive than default."

"Tea-party Republicans will abandon kamikaze mission prior to crashing the world's economy."

"The Republicans are crazy, but not that crazy."

"The problem for Republicans is that some of them don't have the courage to go through with their threats, and some of them are too smart to allow it."

"Anything is possible with the tea-party House, but the pressure will mount and a deal will probably be made in two weeks."

"Wall Street will never allow it."


How likely is it that the debt-ceiling limit won't be raised in time to avoid default?


Very likely: 12%
Likely: 22%
Not likely: 66%

Very likely

"Someone has brainwashed these guys into thinking that inaction is akin to a hard day's work on the Ponderosa. If past is prologue, nothing will get done in time."

"Everyone is spoiling for a fight."


"Get ready: We're defining dysfunctionality down in Washington."

"Two separate issues. Debt ceiling may not be raised by Oct. 17, but we will not default."

"Republicans are playing a very dangerous game."

"Obama and Democrats are too confident they win in such a scenario."

Not likely

"That's more of a hope than a prediction."

"Forcing a default could never be explained or forgiven. One must have faith that instincts for responsible government, or at least self-preservation, will trump the quack prescriptions of people like Ted Cruz."

"No one wants their 401(k) to plummet by a market crash."

"They aren't THAT stupid ... or are they?"

"It's a hostage very few would actually be willing to shoot."

"Fortunately, we still have a critical mass of thinking conservatives who understand the dire implications for the economy if the federal government defaults."

"Hopefully, saner heads will prevail, although that may be just a hope and a prayer."

"Financial markets have one foot in the grave, and one foot on a banana peel. I refuse to believe these guys are stupid enough to mess with that."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud. 

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