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Political Insiders Poll

 

Political Insiders Poll

By Michael Catalini, and Peter Bell

 

Q: Who do you think will be the Republican nominee in 2016?

 

DEMOCRATS (90 votes)

Jeb Bush: 54%
Chris Christie: 2%
Ted Cruz: 1%
Bobby Jindal: 0%
John Kasich: 8%
Rand Paul: 10%
Mike Pence: 2%
Rick Perry: 4%
Marco Rubio: 2%
Paul Ryan: 9%
Rick Santorum: 3%
Scott Walker: 4%
Other: 1%

. . . . . . . . . .

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush (Getty Images)"If Bush runs, he has a better than 50-50 chance of getting the nomination."

"The need to have a credible candidate will trump the others in the clown car."

"It will be a tough ride. He is the establishment favorite, and they will win."

"If he runs, he'll be the nominee."

"The GOP is tired of losing, and they will go with the establishment candidate."

"If Jeb resists the urge to join the 'me-too' chants of the far-right candidates, he can survive the slugfest and become a formidable nominee. If not, it's a jump ball."

"There's another Bush in our political future."

"They love the Bushes."

John Kasich

"Kasich may be the true compassionate conservative who can appeal broadly."

"A personable governor who has run before and from Ohio, Ohio, Ohio."

"This will be a demolition derby—Kasich may take it if Jeb stays in the stands."

Rand Paul

"He has a base."

"Republicans will go where their heart is, and it's all Paul."

"He's the smartest politically, and craftiest. He's everything his father wasn't."

Paul Ryan

 "It has to be someone who can stand the scrutiny. Ryan had already stood the test."

Scott Walker

"Bush will get cold feet or go all Giuliani. Paul is too weird, Rubio is too lame, and the rest are either nothing-burgers or freaks."

"With Jeb playing Hamlet and Christie playing Godfather, the GOP establishment will eventually coalesce behind Scott Walker. The establishment will not let the others win."

Other

"Rick Scott from Florida."

 

Q: Who do you think will be the Republican nominee in 2016?

REPUBLICANS (92 votes)

Jeb Bush: 44%
Chris Christie: 11%
Ted Cruz: 2%
Bobby Jindal: 1%
John Kasich: 4%
Rand Paul: 2%
Mike Pence: 1%
Rick Perry: 1%
Marco Rubio: 22%
Paul Ryan: 3%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Scott Walker: 8%
Other: 1%

. . . . . . . . . .

Jeb Bush

"If it's not him, we are doomed."

"If the Clinton name isn't disqualifying, neither is the Bush name."

"The most adult candidate—and probably the best of all the Bushes."

"Best fits the profile of all GOP primary winners for the past three decades."

"As governor, Bush was known in conservative circles as 'the Reagan Bush.' If he can revive that identity, he can unite the party."

"Jeb Bush with Rand Paul as VP."

"This is more of a 'should be' rather than a 'will be' pick."

Chris Christie

"Christie emerges from the over-hyped bridge-closing issue and shows Republicans what a full-spectrum conservative can accomplish when pragmatism and moving the ball forward triumphs over litmus tests that keep us from even breaking the huddle."

"He is still recovering, but the Dems weren't able to sink him."

"Only Bush and Christie have a chance against Hillary."

Ted Cruz

"After losing their shirts in this year's primary battles, the extreme elements of the party will rise up and take over the presidential nominating contest and start the journey to the most overwhelming general-election defeat in the country's history."

Bobby Jindal

"Jindal has demonstrated electoral success in tough circumstances, has the most compelling story, is ideologically sound, and is the smartest one of the bunch."

John Kasich

"Kasich's brash pragmatism has won over many Democrats in this critical swing state. If he's reelected governor in November, look out."

Mike Pence

"Great story and keeps all the different parts of the GOP [together]."

Rick Perry

"Perry will pull a Nixon and rebound from a searing defeat to unite both wings of the party."

Sen. Marco Rubio (Getty Images)Marco Rubio

"Rubio's political skills will gradually overcome his disastrous flirtation with amnesty."

"Vision, energy, youth. Rubio is the future of the party, today."

"Rubio could emerge as the more disciplined candidate than Christie and with a better ability to unite base voters and moderates than the rest of the field."

"Picking Rubio requires two assumptions: 1) Jeb is out; 2) We want to keep a loss to Hillary to 3 points."

Paul Ryan

"He is tested and acceptable to all factions and generationally right."

"He's a genuinely smart person and a genuine conservative. He'll plug along, while the prima donnas tear each other up ... and come out the winner."

Scott Walker

"But is he Tim Pawlenty 2.0: great résumé that does not translate outside his state?"

"Checks all the boxes. Won consistently in a swing state, fought hard on conservative principles and prevailed."

Other

"This [question is] about a year premature. Might as well throw a dart."

. . . . . . . . . .

Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.