SPOTLIGHT

The House Immigration Vote and 2016

Mark Udall during a Q&A session on April 20, 2010.
National Journal
Scott Bland
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Scott Bland
July 31, 2014, 7:45 a.m.

House Re­pub­lic­ans are ex­pec­ted to vote Thursday on a bill to pre­vent Pres­id­ent Obama from stop­ping more un­doc­u­mented im­mig­rant de­port­a­tions by ex­ec­ut­ive or­der, as he’s ex­pec­ted to do soon. It may not end up be­ing a big deal in the 2014 elec­tions. But one state il­lu­min­ates a loom­ing fu­ture is­sue for the GOP.

— As the GOP bashes Obama’s im­mig­ra­tion policies and sev­er­al red-state Demo­crat­ic sen­at­ors ask him to be cau­tious about fur­ther ac­tion, one battle­ground Demo­crat has gone the oth­er way. Sen. Mark Ud­all (D-CO) an­nounced on a Latino Den­ver ra­dio sta­tion in June that he wanted Obama to push for­ward with ex­ec­ut­ive im­mig­ra­tion ac­tion if the House wouldn’t act on im­mig­ra­tion re­form.

— In the spring of 2013, days after Rep. Cory Gard­ner (R-CO) ini­tially de­cided not to run for Sen­ate, Gard­ner joined most of his party in sup­port­ing an amend­ment to undo Obama’s 2012 “de­ferred ac­tion” DREAM Act-like or­der. Between then and now, though, Gard­ner made a move from a safely Re­pub­lic­an dis­trict to a purple state-wide run, and Ud­all, Demo­crats, and im­mig­ra­tion act­iv­ists have been fiercely crit­ic­al of him on im­mig­ra­tion, of­ten cit­ing that old vote.

— By run­ning for the Sen­ate in­stead of the House, Gard­ner’s en­vir­on­ment has changed in the same way that the coun­try’s will from 2014 to 2016. This elec­tion is fo­cused in areas of the coun­try that are far less di­verse than av­er­age and that Mitt Rom­ney won in 2012, from the Sen­ate battle­ground to a ma­jor­ity of the House of Rep­res­ent­at­ives. That doesn’t min­im­ize Demo­crats’ li­ab­il­it­ies this year. But it does raise the ques­tion, again, of how Re­pub­lic­an strategies in the demo­graph­ic­ally shiel­ded en­virons of 2014 will af­fect the party’s pres­id­en­tial pro­spects in 2014. The House vote on pre­vent­ing fur­ther im­mig­ra­tion ac­tion by Obama won’t pre­vent him from tak­ing ac­tion, thanks to Sen­ate Demo­crats (just like the 2013 amend­ment), but it will in­crease pres­sure on 2016 Re­pub­lic­ans to join in after Obama does make his move on im­mig­ra­tion — be­fore a pres­id­en­tial elec­tion when Re­pub­lic­ans have ac­know­ledged their need to in­crease the party’s share of Latino votes.

The House im­mig­ra­tion vote Thursday may only af­fect a few races in 2014. But it’s easy to see how it could give Re­pub­lic­ans trouble on a dif­fer­ent play­ing field in 2016.
— Scott Bland

What We're Following See More »
HAD ATTRACTED A CROWD TODAY
Alt-Right Leader Spencer Removed from CPAC
15 hours ago
WHY WE CARE
SAYS LEFT WILL GO INTO “MELTDOWN”
Cruz Predicts Another SCOTUS Vacancy “This Summer”
19 hours ago
THE LATEST
THE QUESTION
How Many Signatures Has the Petition for Trump’s Tax Returns Received?
21 hours ago
THE ANSWER

More than 1 million, setting a record. More than 100,000 signatures triggers an official White House response.

Source:
TIED TO RUSSIA INVESTIGATION
Sen. Collins Open to Subpoena of Trump’s Tax Returns
21 hours ago
THE LATEST

Sen. Susan Collins, who sits on the Intelligence Committee, "said on Wednesday she's open to using a subpoena to investigate President Donald Trump's tax returns for potential connections to Russia." She said the committee is also open to subpoenaing Trump himself. "This is a counter-intelligence operation in many ways," she said of Russia's interference. "That's what our committee specializes in. We are used to probing in depth in this area."

Source:
NPR ALSO LAUNCHES ETHICS WATCH
Obama Staffers Launch Group to Monitor Trump Ethics
21 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

"Top lawyers who helped the Obama White House craft and hold to rules of conduct believe President Donald Trump and his staff will break ethics norms meant to guard against politicization of the government — and they’ve formed a new group to prepare, and fight. United to Protect Democracy, which draws its name from a line in President Barack Obama’s farewell address that urged his supporters to pick up where he was leaving off, has already raised a $1.5 million operating budget, hired five staffers and has plans to double that in the coming months." Meanwhile, NPR has launched a "Trump Ethics Monitor" to track the resolution of ten ethics-related promises that the president has made.

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login