The House Immigration Vote and 2016

Mark Udall during a Q&A session on April 20, 2010.
National Journal
Scott Bland
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Scott Bland
July 31, 2014, 7:45 a.m.

House Re­pub­lic­ans are ex­pec­ted to vote Thursday on a bill to pre­vent Pres­id­ent Obama from stop­ping more un­doc­u­mented im­mig­rant de­port­a­tions by ex­ec­ut­ive or­der, as he’s ex­pec­ted to do soon. It may not end up be­ing a big deal in the 2014 elec­tions. But one state il­lu­min­ates a loom­ing fu­ture is­sue for the GOP.

— As the GOP bashes Obama’s im­mig­ra­tion policies and sev­er­al red-state Demo­crat­ic sen­at­ors ask him to be cau­tious about fur­ther ac­tion, one battle­ground Demo­crat has gone the oth­er way. Sen. Mark Ud­all (D-CO) an­nounced on a Latino Den­ver ra­dio sta­tion in June that he wanted Obama to push for­ward with ex­ec­ut­ive im­mig­ra­tion ac­tion if the House wouldn’t act on im­mig­ra­tion re­form.

— In the spring of 2013, days after Rep. Cory Gard­ner (R-CO) ini­tially de­cided not to run for Sen­ate, Gard­ner joined most of his party in sup­port­ing an amend­ment to undo Obama’s 2012 “de­ferred ac­tion” DREAM Act-like or­der. Between then and now, though, Gard­ner made a move from a safely Re­pub­lic­an dis­trict to a purple state-wide run, and Ud­all, Demo­crats, and im­mig­ra­tion act­iv­ists have been fiercely crit­ic­al of him on im­mig­ra­tion, of­ten cit­ing that old vote.

— By run­ning for the Sen­ate in­stead of the House, Gard­ner’s en­vir­on­ment has changed in the same way that the coun­try’s will from 2014 to 2016. This elec­tion is fo­cused in areas of the coun­try that are far less di­verse than av­er­age and that Mitt Rom­ney won in 2012, from the Sen­ate battle­ground to a ma­jor­ity of the House of Rep­res­ent­at­ives. That doesn’t min­im­ize Demo­crats’ li­ab­il­it­ies this year. But it does raise the ques­tion, again, of how Re­pub­lic­an strategies in the demo­graph­ic­ally shiel­ded en­virons of 2014 will af­fect the party’s pres­id­en­tial pro­spects in 2014. The House vote on pre­vent­ing fur­ther im­mig­ra­tion ac­tion by Obama won’t pre­vent him from tak­ing ac­tion, thanks to Sen­ate Demo­crats (just like the 2013 amend­ment), but it will in­crease pres­sure on 2016 Re­pub­lic­ans to join in after Obama does make his move on im­mig­ra­tion — be­fore a pres­id­en­tial elec­tion when Re­pub­lic­ans have ac­know­ledged their need to in­crease the party’s share of Latino votes.

The House im­mig­ra­tion vote Thursday may only af­fect a few races in 2014. But it’s easy to see how it could give Re­pub­lic­ans trouble on a dif­fer­ent play­ing field in 2016.
— Scott Bland

What We're Following See More »
CNN/ORC Has Clinton Up 5 Points
12 hours ago

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49%-44% in a new CNN/ORC poll out Monday afternoon. But it's Gary Johnson's performance, or lack thereof, that's the real story. Johnson, who had cleared 10% in some surveys earlier this fall, as he made a bid to qualify for the debates, is down to 3% support. He must hit 5% nationwide for the Libertarian Party to qualify for some federal matching funds in future elections.

McCarthy, Pelosi Team Up on National Guard Bonuses
14 hours ago

The majority and minority leader of the House are both saying "California's veterans are not to blame for being mistakenly overpaid, after a Los Angeles Times story revealed that officials are trying to claw back millions in bonuses from California National Guardsmen. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy called the efforts to recoup the money 'disgraceful,' and asked for the Department of Defense to waive the repayments soldiers would be forced to make if they inappropriately received re-enlistment bonuses for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan." Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said she's looking for a "legislative fix" in the lame-duck session.

IBD/TIPP Poll Shows a Dead Heat
17 hours ago

A new Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each earning 41% support. On the one hand, the poll has been skewing in Trump's favor this year, relative to other polls. But on the other, data guru Nate Silver called the IBD/TIPP poll the most accurate in 2012.

Clinton Leads by 12 in ABC Tracking Poll
22 hours ago

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in a new ABC News tracking poll, "her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent. Clinton led by only four points in the last ABC/Post poll on Oct. 13.

Morning Consult Poll: Clinton Decisively Won Debate
3 days ago

"According to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, the first national post-debate survey, 43 percent of registered voters said the Democratic candidate won, compared with 26 percent who opted for the Republican Party’s standard bearer. Her 6-point lead over Trump among likely voters is unchanged from our previous survey: Clinton still leads Trump 42 percent to 36 percent in the race for the White House, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson taking 9 percent of the vote."


Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.