POLITICAL INSIDERS POLL

Poll: How Likely Are Democrats to Take Over the House?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
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Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Aug. 29, 2013, 7:20 a.m.

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (vir­tu­al cer­tainty), how likely are Demo­crats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (83 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 2.7

Slight chance (0-3): 70%}
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 28%
Strong chance (7-10): 2%

Slight chance

“It would re­quire a wave on top of a tsunami.”

“Even in a Demo­crat­ic wave elec­tion, the lack of com­pet­it­ive dis­tricts would make it dif­fi­cult for Demo­crats to win the House.”

“That Hill is too steep. Thanks, re­dis­trict­ing!”

“There simply aren’t enough com­pet­it­ive seats to make the dif­fer­ence in this midterm.”

“En­trenched, un­ac­count­able in­cum­bents make any sig­ni­fic­ant shift nearly im­possible.”

“That’s shoot­ing too high. It will take more than one elec­tion cycle.”

“House Re­pub­lic­ans are most un­pop­u­lar, but they have a re­dis­trict­ing lock in most states.”

“Only about nine seats truly in play. Sad!”

“An off year, Obama’s num­bers are down, GOP su­per PACs are un­abated — it all spells bad things for the Demo­crats even though they con­tin­ue to con­tend they can win it.”

“The shape of the House dis­tricts makes it vir­tu­ally im­possible. In fact, I don’t really see a lot of dis­tricts flip­ping in either dir­ec­tion in 2014.”

“The ger­ry­man­der­ing fix is in for the Re­pub­lic­ans.”

“The Dems will prob­ably get more total votes again, but the R’s have ef­fect­ively packed the Dems’ dis­tricts, so it won’t be enough.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“Tough slog, but the Re­pub­lic­an caucus seems to help even the score more and more as time passes by.”

“If the R’s shut down the gov­ern­ment, maybe.”

“Even though the math works against Demo­crats, the House Re­pub­lic­ans are ali­en­at­ing every­one in the middle, giv­ing Demo­crats a chance.”

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (vir­tu­al cer­tainty), how likely are Demo­crats to take over the House in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (94 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 1.9

Slight chance (0-3): 94%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 5%
Strong chance (7-10): 1%

Slight chance

“The Dems will lose seats in the House.”

“Chances the Demo­crats take the House are slim at the mo­ment, but the prob­ab­il­ity goes to 7 if Re­pub­lic­ans shut down the gov­ern­ment.”

“Even if the Wicked Witch of the West be­stowed all of her powers on former Speak­er [Nancy] Pelosi, it still wouldn’t be enough for her to be­come the great and power­ful Oz.”

“Dems and Obama are cur­rently play­ing de­fense; a GOP cata­strophe would be re­quired for even a small chance.”

“The Na­tion­als are math­em­at­ic­ally alive to win the World Series this year, too.”

“Bad math, frac­tured agenda, not with­in their con­trol.”

“Not a chance.”

“Voters won’t trust Demo­crats with total con­trol.”

“Any­thing can hap­pen in polit­ics, but peace in the Middle East is more likely than Demo­crats tak­ing over the House.”

“The only event that could hand Nancy Pelosi the gavel is if House Re­pub­lic­ans ad­opt the Her­it­age Ac­tion plan to shut down the gov­ern­ment over Obama­care. Boehner’s not go­ing to let that hap­pen.”

“There just aren’t enough seats in play.”

“A real gov­ern­ment shut­down could move it from a 2 to a 5.”

“Amer­ic­ans like a check on the pres­id­ent.”

“It would take a mighty big wave to get them to a ma­jor­ity.”

“Only if the GOP wack­os screw up the debt ceil­ing.”

… … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (83 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 2.7

Slight chance (0-3): 70%}
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 28%
Strong chance (7-10): 2%

Slight chance

“It would re­quire a wave on top of a tsunami.”

“Even in a Demo­crat­ic wave elec­tion, the lack of com­pet­it­ive dis­tricts would make it dif­fi­cult for Demo­crats to win the House.”

“That Hill is too steep. Thanks, re­dis­trict­ing!”

“There simply aren’t enough com­pet­it­ive seats to make the dif­fer­ence in this midterm.”

“En­trenched, un­ac­count­able in­cum­bents make any sig­ni­fic­ant shift nearly im­possible.”

“That’s shoot­ing too high. It will take more than one elec­tion cycle.”

“House Re­pub­lic­ans are most un­pop­u­lar, but they have a re­dis­trict­ing lock in most states.”

“Only about nine seats truly in play. Sad!”

“An off year, Obama’s num­bers are down, GOP su­per PACs are un­abated — it all spells bad things for the Demo­crats even though they con­tin­ue to con­tend they can win it.”

“The shape of the House dis­tricts makes it vir­tu­ally im­possible. In fact, I don’t really see a lot of dis­tricts flip­ping in either dir­ec­tion in 2014.”

“The ger­ry­man­der­ing fix is in for the Re­pub­lic­ans.”

“The Dems will prob­ably get more total votes again, but the R’s have ef­fect­ively packed the Dems’ dis­tricts, so it won’t be enough.”

Mod­er­ate chance

“Tough slog, but the Re­pub­lic­an caucus seems to help even the score more and more as time passes by.”

“If the R’s shut down the gov­ern­ment, maybe.”

“Even though the math works against Demo­crats, the House Re­pub­lic­ans are ali­en­at­ing every­one in the middle, giv­ing Demo­crats a chance.”

On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are Democrats to take over the House in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (94 VOTES)

Av­er­age: 1.9

Slight chance (0-3): 94%
Mod­er­ate chance (4-6): 5%
Strong chance (7-10): 1%

Slight chance

“The Dems will lose seats in the House.”

“Chances the Demo­crats take the House are slim at the mo­ment, but the prob­ab­il­ity goes to 7 if Re­pub­lic­ans shut down the gov­ern­ment.”

“Even if the Wicked Witch of the West be­stowed all of her powers on former Speak­er [Nancy] Pelosi, it still wouldn’t be enough for her to be­come the great and power­ful Oz.”

“Dems and Obama are cur­rently play­ing de­fense; a GOP cata­strophe would be re­quired for even a small chance.”

“The Na­tion­als are math­em­at­ic­ally alive to win the World Series this year, too.”

“Bad math, frac­tured agenda, not with­in their con­trol.”

“Not a chance.”

“Voters won’t trust Demo­crats with total con­trol.”

“Any­thing can hap­pen in polit­ics, but peace in the Middle East is more likely than Demo­crats tak­ing over the House.”

“The only event that could hand Nancy Pelosi the gavel is if House Re­pub­lic­ans ad­opt the Her­it­age Ac­tion plan to shut down the gov­ern­ment over Obama­care. Boehner’s not go­ing to let that hap­pen.”

“There just aren’t enough seats in play.”

“A real gov­ern­ment shut­down could move it from a 2 to a 5.”

“Amer­ic­ans like a check on the pres­id­ent.”

“It would take a mighty big wave to get them to a ma­jor­ity.”

“Only if the GOP wack­os screw up the debt ceil­ing.”

… … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

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