Political Insiders Poll

Poll: Does Your Party Benefit or Suffer if Congress Abandons Immigration Reform?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
See more stories about...
Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Sept. 26, 2013, 4:05 p.m.

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 57%
Hurt: 9%
No im­pact: 34%

Help

“Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans con­tin­ue to do everything they can to risk their lock on con­trol of the House. If they block im­mig­ra­tion re­form, Latino turnout will go through the roof in 2014 and cost the GOP its ma­jor­ity in the House and its op­por­tun­ity to win the Sen­ate. GOP is bent on self-de­struc­tion; God bless their pointy little heads.”

“Not to be cyn­ic­al, but subtly point­ing out the in­her­ent ra­cism of the GOP sim­ul­tan­eously block­ing im­mig­ra­tion re­form for His­pan­ics while try­ing to take health care away from Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans will be dev­ast­at­ing.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Con­gress is go­ing out of its way to show the Latino and Asi­an com­munit­ies that they are not their friends.”

“Any­thing and everything that helps gen­er­ate turnout is pos­it­ive.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans will have a lot of ex­plain­ing to do to a grow­ing group of voters who don’t trust them any­way.”

“Should be a good base-mo­bil­iz­a­tion is­sue for Demo­crat where a strong Latino vote could swing some key Sen­ate and gubernat­ori­al races.”

Hurt

“It will dampen but not des­troy Latino ar­dor.”

“I think it will hurt both parties. Re­pub­lic­ans will pay with His­pan­ic op­pos­i­tion. Demo­crats will pay with low His­pan­ic turnout.”

No im­pact

“This is­sue will come back to haunt Re­pub­lic­ans, but not un­til 2016.”

“The bar is so low for Con­gress right now that the ex­pect­a­tion is ‘Fail to pass.’ It won’t mat­ter.”

“Those who have an opin­ion on re­form are firmly in one court or an­oth­er.”

What will be the polit­ic­al im­pact on your party in the 2014 elec­tions if Con­gress fails to pass a com­pre­hens­ive im­mig­ra­tion re­form bill that in­cludes a path to cit­izen­ship?

What will be the polit­ic­al im­pact on your party in the 2014 elec­tions if Con­gress fails to pass a com­pre­hens­ive im­mig­ra­tion re­form bill that in­cludes a path to cit­izen­ship?

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (92 VOTES)

Help: 10%
Hurt: 39%
No im­pact: 51%

Help

“GOP will pick up seats in 2014 no mat­ter what. Six-year itch and ex­haus­tion of Obama en­sure a good midterm elec­tion.”

“For every Latino voter switch­ing to a Re­pub­lic­an for sup­port­ing am­nesty, there will be four Re­pub­lic­ans who stay home.

Hurt

“It just con­tin­ues to dig the hole deep­er with His­pan­ics, and post­pones re­sur­rec­tion of the Re­pub­lic­an Party na­tion­ally.”

“Maybe not on many spe­cif­ic races, but the pres­id­ent will dem­agogue us to death on our party im­age.”

“At the end of the day, un­less and un­til Re­pub­lic­ans are able to garner a reas­on­able amount of sup­port from the fast­est-grow­ing seg­ment of the pop­u­la­tion, we are cut­ting our own throats.”

“We’re get­ting killed every day on Span­ish-lan­guage me­dia, and our guys don’t even know it.”

No im­pact

“The House needs to pass something, but re­con­cil­ing with the Sen­ate could do more harm than good for a midterm where mo­tiv­at­ing the base is crit­ic­al.”

“This is a 2016 is­sue.”

“Bad eco­nomy, ef­fect on Obama­care will keep voters dis­trac­ted from im­mig­ra­tion.”

“Each party gets it as an is­sue, but as long as the eco­nomy stinks, it doesn’t hold much sway.”

“Prob­ably a wash in 2014, which will mask ter­rible im­pacts in 2016 and bey­ond.”

… … … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

MOST READ
What We're Following See More »
FIRST WOMAN NOMINATED BY MAJOR PARTY
Hillary Clinton Accepts the Democratic Nomination for President
3 hours ago
THE DETAILS

"It is with humility, determination, and boundless confidence in America’s promise that I accept your nomination for president," said Hillary Clinton in becoming the first woman to accept a nomination for president from a major party. Clinton gave a wide-ranging address, both criticizing Donald Trump and speaking of what she has done in the past and hopes to do in the future. "He's taken the Republican party a long way, from morning in America to midnight in America," Clinton said of Trump. However, most of her speech focused instead on the work she has done and the work she hopes to do as president. "I will be a president of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. For the struggling, the striving, the successful," she said. "For those who vote for me and for those who don't. For all Americans together."

COUNTER-CHANTS AT THE READY
Protesters Make Good on Threat to Disrupt Speech
3 hours ago
THE LATEST

Supporters of Bernie Sanders promised to walk out, turn their backs, or disrupt Hillary Clinton's speech tonight, and they made good immediately, with an outburst almost as soon as Clinton began her speech. But her supporters, armed with a handy counter-chant cheat sheet distributed by the campaign, immediately began drowning them out with chants of "Hillary, Hillary!"

SUFFOLK POLL
New Survey Shows Clinton Up 9 in Pennsylvania
12 hours ago
THE LATEST

If a new poll is to be believed, Hillary Clinton has a big lead in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania. A new Suffolk University survey shows her ahead of Donald Trump, 50%-41%. In a four-way race, she maintains her nine-point lead, 46%-37%. "Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the past six presidential elections, going back to Bill Clinton’s first win in 1992. Yet it is a rust belt state that could be in play, as indicated by recent general-election polling showing a close race."

Source:
THREE NIGHTS RUNNING
Democrats Beat Republicans in Convention Ratings So Far
12 hours ago
THE DETAILS

Wednesday was the third night in a row that the Democratic convention enjoyed a ratings win over the Republican convention last week. Which might have prompted a fundraising email from Donald Trump exhorting supporters not to watch. "Unless you want to be lied to, belittled, and attacked for your beliefs, don't watch Hillary's DNC speech tonight," the email read. "Instead, help Donald Trump hold her accountable, call out her lies and fight back against her nasty attacks."

Source:
SHIFT FROM ROMNEY’S NUMBERS
Catholics, Highly Educated Moving Toward Dems
16 hours ago
THE LATEST

Catholics who attend mass at least weekly have increased their support of the Democratic nominee by 22 points, relative to 2012, when devout Catholics backed Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll shows that those voters with advanced degrees prefer Hillary Clinton, 51%-34%. Which, we suppose, makes the ideal Clinton voter a Catholic with a PhD in divinity.

×