Political Insiders Poll

Poll: Does Your Party Benefit or Suffer if Congress Abandons Immigration Reform?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
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Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Sept. 26, 2013, 4:05 p.m.

What will be the polit­ic­al im­pact on your party in the 2014 elec­tions if Con­gress fails to pass a com­pre­hens­ive im­mig­ra­tion re­form bill that in­cludes a path to cit­izen­ship?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 57%
Hurt: 9%
No im­pact: 34%

Help

“Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans con­tin­ue to do everything they can to risk their lock on con­trol of the House. If they block im­mig­ra­tion re­form, Latino turnout will go through the roof in 2014 and cost the GOP its ma­jor­ity in the House and its op­por­tun­ity to win the Sen­ate. GOP is bent on self-de­struc­tion; God bless their pointy little heads.”

“Not to be cyn­ic­al, but subtly point­ing out the in­her­ent ra­cism of the GOP sim­ul­tan­eously block­ing im­mig­ra­tion re­form for His­pan­ics while try­ing to take health care away from Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans will be dev­ast­at­ing.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Con­gress is go­ing out of its way to show the Latino and Asi­an com­munit­ies that they are not their friends.”

“Any­thing and everything that helps gen­er­ate turnout is pos­it­ive.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans will have a lot of ex­plain­ing to do to a grow­ing group of voters who don’t trust them any­way.”

“Should be a good base-mo­bil­iz­a­tion is­sue for Demo­crat where a strong Latino vote could swing some key Sen­ate and gubernat­ori­al races.”

Hurt

“It will dampen but not des­troy Latino ar­dor.”

“I think it will hurt both parties. Re­pub­lic­ans will pay with His­pan­ic op­pos­i­tion. Demo­crats will pay with low His­pan­ic turnout.”

No im­pact

“This is­sue will come back to haunt Re­pub­lic­ans, but not un­til 2016.”

“The bar is so low for Con­gress right now that the ex­pect­a­tion is ‘Fail to pass.’ It won’t mat­ter.”

“Those who have an opin­ion on re­form are firmly in one court or an­oth­er.”

What will be the polit­ic­al im­pact on your party in the 2014 elec­tions if Con­gress fails to pass a com­pre­hens­ive im­mig­ra­tion re­form bill that in­cludes a path to cit­izen­ship?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (92 VOTES)

Help: 10%
Hurt: 39%
No im­pact: 51%

Help

“GOP will pick up seats in 2014 no mat­ter what. Six-year itch and ex­haus­tion of Obama en­sure a good midterm elec­tion.”

“For every Latino voter switch­ing to a Re­pub­lic­an for sup­port­ing am­nesty, there will be four Re­pub­lic­ans who stay home.

Hurt

“It just con­tin­ues to dig the hole deep­er with His­pan­ics, and post­pones re­sur­rec­tion of the Re­pub­lic­an Party na­tion­ally.”

“Maybe not on many spe­cif­ic races, but the pres­id­ent will dem­agogue us to death on our party im­age.”

“At the end of the day, un­less and un­til Re­pub­lic­ans are able to garner a reas­on­able amount of sup­port from the fast­est-grow­ing seg­ment of the pop­u­la­tion, we are cut­ting our own throats.”

“We’re get­ting killed every day on Span­ish-lan­guage me­dia, and our guys don’t even know it.”

No im­pact

“The House needs to pass something, but re­con­cil­ing with the Sen­ate could do more harm than good for a midterm where mo­tiv­at­ing the base is crit­ic­al.”

“This is a 2016 is­sue.”

“Bad eco­nomy, ef­fect on Obama­care will keep voters dis­trac­ted from im­mig­ra­tion.”

“Each party gets it as an is­sue, but as long as the eco­nomy stinks, it doesn’t hold much sway.”

“Prob­ably a wash in 2014, which will mask ter­rible im­pacts in 2016 and bey­ond.”

… … … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 57%
Hurt: 9%
No im­pact: 34%

Help

“Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans con­tin­ue to do everything they can to risk their lock on con­trol of the House. If they block im­mig­ra­tion re­form, Latino turnout will go through the roof in 2014 and cost the GOP its ma­jor­ity in the House and its op­por­tun­ity to win the Sen­ate. GOP is bent on self-de­struc­tion; God bless their pointy little heads.”

“Not to be cyn­ic­al, but subtly point­ing out the in­her­ent ra­cism of the GOP sim­ul­tan­eously block­ing im­mig­ra­tion re­form for His­pan­ics while try­ing to take health care away from Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans will be dev­ast­at­ing.”

“The Re­pub­lic­an Con­gress is go­ing out of its way to show the Latino and Asi­an com­munit­ies that they are not their friends.”

“Any­thing and everything that helps gen­er­ate turnout is pos­it­ive.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans will have a lot of ex­plain­ing to do to a grow­ing group of voters who don’t trust them any­way.”

“Should be a good base-mo­bil­iz­a­tion is­sue for Demo­crat where a strong Latino vote could swing some key Sen­ate and gubernat­ori­al races.”

Hurt

“It will dampen but not des­troy Latino ar­dor.”

“I think it will hurt both parties. Re­pub­lic­ans will pay with His­pan­ic op­pos­i­tion. Demo­crats will pay with low His­pan­ic turnout.”

No im­pact

“This is­sue will come back to haunt Re­pub­lic­ans, but not un­til 2016.”

“The bar is so low for Con­gress right now that the ex­pect­a­tion is ‘Fail to pass.’ It won’t mat­ter.”

“Those who have an opin­ion on re­form are firmly in one court or an­oth­er.”

What will be the political impact on your party in the 2014 elections if Congress fails to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill that includes a path to citizenship?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (92 VOTES)

Help: 10%
Hurt: 39%
No im­pact: 51%

Help

“GOP will pick up seats in 2014 no mat­ter what. Six-year itch and ex­haus­tion of Obama en­sure a good midterm elec­tion.”

“For every Latino voter switch­ing to a Re­pub­lic­an for sup­port­ing am­nesty, there will be four Re­pub­lic­ans who stay home.

Hurt

“It just con­tin­ues to dig the hole deep­er with His­pan­ics, and post­pones re­sur­rec­tion of the Re­pub­lic­an Party na­tion­ally.”

“Maybe not on many spe­cif­ic races, but the pres­id­ent will dem­agogue us to death on our party im­age.”

“At the end of the day, un­less and un­til Re­pub­lic­ans are able to garner a reas­on­able amount of sup­port from the fast­est-grow­ing seg­ment of the pop­u­la­tion, we are cut­ting our own throats.”

“We’re get­ting killed every day on Span­ish-lan­guage me­dia, and our guys don’t even know it.”

No im­pact

“The House needs to pass something, but re­con­cil­ing with the Sen­ate could do more harm than good for a midterm where mo­tiv­at­ing the base is crit­ic­al.”

“This is a 2016 is­sue.”

“Bad eco­nomy, ef­fect on Obama­care will keep voters dis­trac­ted from im­mig­ra­tion.”

“Each party gets it as an is­sue, but as long as the eco­nomy stinks, it doesn’t hold much sway.”

“Prob­ably a wash in 2014, which will mask ter­rible im­pacts in 2016 and bey­ond.”

… … … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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