Poll: Don’t Shut Down the Government Over Obamacare

Democrats also hold a significant lead on the generic ballot, a new survey shows.

WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 30: U.S. House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks as (L-R) Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Assistant House Minority Leader Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), House Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-NY), House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), and House Minority Whip Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) listen during a news conference September 30, 2013 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The U.S. government was officially shut down at midnight after the Senate and the House of the Representatives failed to come to an agreement to pass a federal spending bill to keep the government running.
National Journal
Steven Shepard
Add to Briefcase
Steven Shepard
Oct. 1, 2013, 2:06 a.m.

A new Quin­nipi­ac Uni­versity poll re­leased on Tues­day shows voters over­whelm­ingly op­pose Con­gress shut­ting down the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment as a way to stop the 2010 health care law from be­ing im­ple­men­ted, match­ing oth­er pub­lic polling that shows that Demo­crats enter the shut­down with the up­per hand.

The Quin­nipi­ac poll also shows Demo­crats with a 9-point lead on the 2014 House gen­er­ic bal­lot — a his­tor­ic­ally wide edge, des­pite the struc­tur­al ad­vant­ages that make a Demo­crat­ic takeover of the House un­likely.

Over­all, the poll shows voters are split on the health care law: 45 per­cent sup­port it, while 47 per­cent op­pose it. Oth­er polls have shown stronger op­pos­i­tion to the law, however.

But des­pite their over­all am­bi­val­ence to­ward the law, voters op­pose ef­forts to de­fund it. Just 34 per­cent think Con­gress should cut off fund­ing, and sup­port is even lower when those de­fund­ing ef­forts are tied to a gov­ern­ment shut­down (22 per­cent) or rais­ing the debt lim­it (27 per­cent). A wide ma­jor­ity, 72 per­cent, op­pose shut­ting down the gov­ern­ment to cut off fund­ing the health care law.

That is con­sist­ent with oth­er pub­lic sur­veys, in­clud­ing our United Tech­no­lo­gies/Na­tion­al Journ­al Con­gres­sion­al Con­nec­tion Poll, which have shown Amer­ic­ans op­posed to the Re­pub­lic­an strategy of al­low­ing the gov­ern­ment to shut down if the health care law was not de­fun­ded or rolled back, even if they op­pose the law it­self.

Look­ing ahead to the 2014 elec­tions, Demo­crats lead Re­pub­lic­ans on the gen­er­ic bal­lot, the poll shows, 43 per­cent to 34 per­cent. Four per­cent of re­gistered voters say they prefer someone else, 2 per­cent wouldn’t vote, and 17 per­cent are un­de­cided.

The 9-point ad­vant­age is the largest Quin­nipi­ac has meas­ured since the spring of 2009, in the first months of the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion. The yawn­ing lead isn’t that in­con­sist­ent with oth­er Quin­nipi­ac sur­veys con­duc­ted this year: In two Ju­ly sur­veys, for ex­ample, Demo­crats held 4- and 5-point leads.

Des­pite the Demo­crat­ic ad­vant­age on this ques­tion, GOP re­ten­tion of the House seems likely at this stage. The gen­er­ic bal­lot has over­stated Demo­crat­ic sup­port in the past, and the Quin­nipi­ac poll is a sur­vey of all re­gistered voters, many of whom won’t cast bal­lots in a midterm elec­tion.

The 2014 elec­tions will also be con­tested on a dif­fer­ent play­ing field. Re­pub­lic­ans en­joy a struc­tur­al ad­vant­age fol­low­ing the dec­ade’s re­dis­trict­ing pro­cesses, and, in the Sen­ate, Demo­crats have more vul­ner­able mem­bers up this cycle. And though the 1995-96 shut­down is widely at­trib­uted to then-Pres­id­ent Bill Clin­ton’s reelec­tion, Demo­crats only picked up two seats in the House — and lost two Sen­ate seats — fol­low­ing the 1996 elec­tions.

Oth­er data show that Demo­crats’ suc­cess on the gen­er­ic bal­lot is more at­trib­ut­able to a col­lapsing GOP brand than im­prov­ing im­ages of Demo­crats and their stand­ard-bear­er, Pres­id­ent Obama. Quin­nipi­ac finds Obama’s ap­prov­al rat­ing is net-neg­at­ive: 45 per­cent ap­prove, and 49 per­cent dis­ap­prove. And con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats earn a 32-per­cent ap­prov­al rat­ing, while three-in-five voters dis­ap­prove.

But Re­pub­lic­ans in Con­gress have hit a re­cord low, the poll shows. Only 17 per­cent of voters ap­prove of the way GOP mem­bers of Con­gress are hand­ling their jobs, while a whop­ping 74 per­cent dis­ap­prove. Among in­de­pend­ents, only 13 per­cent ap­prove, com­pared to 76 per­cent who dis­ap­prove.

The Quin­nipi­ac Uni­versity poll was con­duc­ted Sept. 23-29, sur­vey­ing 1,497 re­gistered voters. The mar­gin of er­ror is plus-or-minus 2.5 per­cent­age points.

Oth­er polls re­leased this week back up the col­lapse of the GOP brand. The party’s over­all fa­vor­able rat­ing in a new CNN/ORC In­ter­na­tion­al poll is 32 per­cent, a re­cord low. Only 26 per­cent ap­prove of the way Re­pub­lic­ans in Con­gress are hand­ling the budget talks in a new ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll.

What We're Following See More »
JUST IN CASE…
White House Adds Five New SCOTUS Candidates
10 hours ago
THE DETAILS

President Trump added five new names to his Supreme Court short list on Friday, should a need arise to appoint a new justice. The list now numbers 25 individuals. They are: 7th Circuit Appeals Judge Amy Coney Barrett, Georgia Supreme Court Justice Britt C. Grant, District of Columbia Circuit Appeals Court Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, 11th Circuit Appeals Judge Kevin C. Newsom, and Oklahoma Supreme Court Justice Patrick Wyrick.

SAVE THOSE PERTAINING TO EXEC BRANCH
Sessions: DOJ Will No Longer Issue Guidance Documents
10 hours ago
WHY WE CARE

"Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced Friday the Justice Department will revamp its policy for issuing guidance documents. Speaking at the Federalist Society’s annual conference in Washington Friday, Sessions said the Justice Department will no longer issue guidance that 'purports to impose new obligations on any party outside the executive branch.' He said DOJ will review and repeal any documents that could violate this policy." Sessions said: “Too often, rather than going through the long, slow, regulatory process provided in statute, agencies make new rules through guidance documents—by simply sending a letter. This cuts off the public from the regulatory process by skipping the required public hearings and comment periods—and it is simply not what these documents are for. Guidance documents should be used to explain existing law—not to change it.”

Source:
STARTS LEGAL FUND FOR WH STAFF
Trump to Begin Covering His Own Legal Bills
12 hours ago
THE DETAILS
DISCUSSED THE MATTER FOR A NEW BOOK
Steele Says Follow the Money
13 hours ago
STAFF PICKS

"Christopher Steele, the former British intelligence officer who wrote the explosive dossier alleging ties between Donald Trump and Russia," says in a new book by The Guardian's Luke Harding that "Trump's land and hotel deals with Russians needed to be examined. ... Steele did not go into further detail, Harding said, but seemed to be referring to a 2008 home sale to the Russian oligarch Dmitry Rybolovlev. Richard Dearlove, who headed the UK foreign-intelligence unit MI6 between 1999 and 2004, said in April that Trump borrowed money from Russia for his business during the 2008 financial crisis."

Source:
BRITISH PUBLICIST CONNECTED TO TRUMP TOWER MEETING
Goldstone Ready to Meet with Mueller’s Team
14 hours ago
THE LATEST

"The British publicist who helped set up the fateful meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and a group of Russians at Trump Tower in June 2016 is ready to meet with Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller's office, according to several people familiar with the matter. Rob Goldstone has been living in Bangkok, Thailand, but has been communicating with Mueller's office through his lawyer, said a source close to Goldstone."

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login