Poll: Shutdown Hurting Republicans in Battleground Districts

House Republicans are already taking a drubbing at home, a new poll of two dozen congressional districts shows.

The shutdown, as seen from downtown Los Angeles on Tuesday.
National Journal
Alex Seitz Wald
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Alex Seitz-Wald
Oct. 6, 2013, 3 a.m.

The gov­ern­ment shut­down is already hurt­ing the GOP in battle­ground con­gres­sion­al dis­tricts, ac­cord­ing to new polling in two dozen dis­tricts cur­rently con­trolled by Re­pub­lic­ans.

The sur­veys, com­mis­sioned by the lib­er­al group Mo­ve­On.org Polit­ic­al Ac­tion and con­duc­ted by Pub­lic Policy Polling, sug­gest that the gov­ern­ment shut­down may already be hav­ing a big­ger im­pact than most ana­lysts real­ize.

“Demo­crats must pick up 17 seats to win con­trol of the House. These poll res­ults make clear that if the elec­tion were held today, such a pickup would be well with­in reach,” said poll­ster Jim Wil­li­ams. “The sur­veys chal­lenge the con­ven­tion­al wis­dom that ger­ry­man­der­ing has put the House out of reach for Demo­crats.”

We’re still 13 months out from next year’s midterm elec­tions and the shut­down isn’t even over yet, so it’s too soon to draw any con­clu­sions, but this new sur­vey data is sup­por­ted by na­tion­al polls that sug­gest Amer­ic­ans are more likely to blame Re­pub­lic­ans for the shut­down than Pres­id­ent Obama and oth­er Demo­crats. Two polls re­leased last week, from CBS and Fox News, each found that the pub­lic blames Re­pub­lic­ans over Demo­crats by about a 10 point mar­gin. Only about 20 per­cent blamed both sides evenly.

The new PPP polls were con­duc­ted on Wed­nes­day, Thursday, and Fri­day of last week, with sample sizes of between 600-700 re­gistered voters in each of the 24 dis­tricts they sur­veyed. Most of the dis­tricts, in­clud­ing sev­er­al in Cali­for­nia, New York, Ohio, and Flor­ida, are con­sidered com­pet­it­ive.

In 17 of the dis­tricts, PPP found the Re­pub­lic­an in­cum­bent trail­ing a gen­er­ic Demo­crat in a head-to-head con­test among re­gistered voters. Most of the in­cum­bents’ ap­prov­al rat­ings were un­der­wa­ter, mean­ing more re­spond­ents dis­ap­proved than ap­proved. 

Demo­crats are hop­ing to re­peat their ex­per­i­ence with the 1995 and 1996 shut­downs, which helped lead to the reelec­tion of Pres­id­ent Clin­ton and to mod­est suc­cess for House Demo­crats.

See the full list of dis­tricts polled at a glance here and in­di­vidu­al dis­tricts here: CA-10, CA-21, CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, KY-06, IL-13, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, NV-03, NY-11, NY-19, NY-23, OH-06, OH-14 PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, and WI-07.

What We're Following See More »
RELIEVES MARK TONER
Former Fox Anchor Heather Nauert to Be State Dept. Spokeswoman
8 hours ago
THE DETAILS
NOT WORRIED ABOUT BUDGET NEUTRALITY
Trump Wants to Slash Corporate Rate to 15%
10 hours ago
THE LATEST
PROMISES “MASSIVE” CUTS
Trump Tax Reform Package Coming Next Week
10 hours ago
THE LATEST

President Trump today said he'll be releasing his tax reformpacakge next week around the 100-day mark of his presidency. He promised that "businesses and individuals will receive a 'massive tax cut ... bigger I believe than any tax cut ever."

Source:
ONLY BROAD PRINCIPLES
Mulvaney: Tax Reform Details Won’t Be Released This Week
10 hours ago
THE LATEST

Despite President Trump's announcement that his tax reform proposal would be released this week, Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney now says it will be ready in June. This week's announcement will be limited to "specific governing principles."

Source:
DOMESTIC PRIORITIES
Pence Cuts Asia Trip Short For Big Week
15 hours ago
THE DETAILS

Vice President Mike Pence has cut his Asia trip short "to race back to Washington, where the Trump administration faces a critical week on tax reform and a funding plan to keep the government running, an aide said on Sunday." Pence will return to Washington on Tuesday morning instead of Wednesday. Trump has a busy week ahead, as he plans to roll out a tax reform on framework, sign a number of executive orders, and works to keep the government open past Friday.

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login