Like any game of chicken, the government shutdown was always an all-or-nothing proposition for the tea party. Now, with a deal about to be done, it’s pretty clear that what they got was nothing.
The movement, running out of steam after the 2012 election, got a shot in the arm after the IRS scandal broke, then roared back to life to support Ted Cruz’s defund-or-shutdown movement over Obamacare. For a moment this fall, it even felt like a bit like 2010.
But unlike 2010, when the tea party helped Republicans win 60 House seats, this time the movement has only hurt itself—perhaps mortally. A new Pew survey out today shows just how bad the damage is. The tea party is less popular than ever, with nearly half of Americans holding a negative view of the movement and just 30 percent of Republicans saying they view it favorably. Just a third of GOPers say the tea-party movement is even part of their own party.
Much of this collapse has happened since June, suggesting it was the government shutdown that killed the beast. Democrats, Republicans, and independents all agree here.
And there’s now a huge split between tea party-Republicans and non-tea-party Republicans, reflecting the split already visible in Congress.
Nowhere in the Pew poll is this more evident than in the numbers for Ted Cruz, who emerged from obscurity to become the de facto leader of the right wing of his party. While his favorable rating among tea-party Republicans has risen since July by 27 points—from 47 to 74—his unfavorable numbers have risen 15 points among non-tea-party Republicans over the same period, from 16 to 31 percent.
Democrats were dinged, too, and Republicans even more so, but the tea party got the worst of it.
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According to the most recent Gallup poll, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are equally disliked. The poll, conducted between July 18 and July 25, shows both major party candidates for president are viewed favorably by 37 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 58 percent of respondents. This poll is bad news for Clinton, who has received better favorable and unfavorable ratings in nearly every poll over the last year.
The same day that Donald Trump encouraged Russia to hack the State Department and "find the 30,000 emails that are missing," the GOP nominee for vice president took a more serious approach. "If it is Russia and they are interfering in our elections, I can assure you both parties and the United States government will ensure there are serious consequences," Pence said in a statement. Trump's comments at a press conference this morning were rebuked by individuals across the political spectrum, while some on Trump's team, including prominent surrogate Newt Gingrich, have called his comments a "joke."
The Federal Open Market Committee today voted to leave interest rates alone, but "upgraded its assessment of the economy’s recent performance and said near-term risks to the outlook have diminished, effectively leaving the door open to raise rates later this year, possibly as early as September."
"Spurred by VP pick Mike Pence, a former congressman with close ties to many lawmakers, the Trump campaign in recent weeks has stepped up its courtship of wary Capitol Hill Republicans. And the efforts appear to be bearing fruit." Central to the charm offensive: invitations to more than a dozen "Senate and House members into his family’s private box for some power-schmoozing with him and his kids" during the Republican National Convention.
Donald Trump essentially encouraged more Russian espionage against Democrats in a press conference this morning. "Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you’re able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing,” he said. “I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press.” That prompted Brendan Buck, spokesman for House Speaker Paul Ryan to say: “Russia is a global menace led by a devious thug. Putin should stay out of this election.”