FL-27: Former TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar (R) led former Clinton Foundation official Donna Shalala (D) 44-42 percent in a Mason-Dixon poll (Oct. 1-6; 625 LVs; +/- 4%) conducted for Telemundo. A third-party candidate took 1 percent of the vote and another 13 percent were undecided. Cuban voters broke for Salazar by a 69-15 percent margin. Independents backed Shalala 44-39 percent. (release)
IA-01: Rep. Rod Blum (R) says his latest poll found him trailing state Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) by just 1 point, 44-43 percent with 8 percent undecided. "The poll was conducted by the Polling Company, which the Blum campaign has used in previous campaigns." He did not provide the dates polled, sample size or margin of error.
The NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund have not invested on the air. "Blum recalled that in 2014, the" NRCC "didn’t get involved in his open-seat race until the very end. The same was true two years ago." Blum: "So this seems to be playing itself out again. It doesn’t surprise me, but with this newest poll, I think they are re-evaluating this race.” (Cedar Rapids Gazette)
NJ-03: Rep. Tom MacArthur’s (R) internal poll (Oct. 2-4; 400 LVs; +/- 4.9%) found him up 44-40 percent over former State Department official Andy Kim (D). The congressman’s approval rating was above water at 47/38. (Roll Call)
NV-04: Former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R) led former Rep. Steven Horsford (D) by 4 points, 41-37 percent, in an internal GOP survey (Oct. 3-8; 400 LVs; +/- 5%) that also tested third-party candidates. The poll, conducted by Moore Information, found 13 percent undecided with Hardy’s favorability up 4 points and Horsford’s underwater by 8 points. The NRCC has been running ads casting Horsford as a "shady" lobbyist, drawing response ads from Horsford himself. (Hotline reporting)