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Poll: Cagle, Abrams Dominate Primaries

But the Republican race could go to a runoff.

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Zach C. Cohen
March 2, 2018, 10:52 a.m.

Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) and former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) led their respective primaries in a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (Feb. 20-23).

Among Republicans (500 LVs; +/-4.5%), Cagle gets 27 percent followed by Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), former Navy SEAL Clay Tippins (R), and former state Sen. Hunter Hill (R) at 13, 12, and 11 percent respectively. State Sen. Michael Williams (R) and former teacher Marc Urbach (R) trailed in the single-digits. If no candidate gets more than 50 percent in the primary, it will move to a runoff.

Cagle was also best known of the field, according to their favorability ratings:

Cagle: 53-7%
Kemp: 20-8%
Tippins: 19-3%
Hill: 16-2%
Williams: 9-2%
Urbach: 3-1%

Among Democrats (500 LVs; +/-4.5%), Abrams led former state Rep. Stacey Evans (D) 54-29 percent. Abrams was also better known with a 23-5 percent favorability to Evans’s 14-1 percent.

In hypothetical general-election matchups (625 RVs), the better known candidate usually led within the margin of error over the lesser known, regardless of party.

Cagle vs. Abrams: 45-39%
Abrams vs. Kemp: 40-37%
Abrams vs. Tippins: 41-40%
Abrams vs. Hill: 43-37%
Cagle vs. Evans: 47-38%
Kemp vs. Evans: 42-39%
Tippins vs. Evans: 41-38%
Evans vs. Hill: 36-35% (release)

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