Jan. 22, 2018, 11:14 a.m.
A new CNN poll (Jan. 14-18; 913 RVs; +/-3.8%), “conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot has tightened to a narrow 5 points among registered voters,” with Democrats leading 49 percent to 44 percent, “but those voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats by a wide 15-point margin.” Democrats’ got 49 percent of the vote compared to Republicans 44 percent. That “margin among registered voters is almost identical to Democrats’ standing in January of 2006.” Republicans took a 3-point advantage among Independents, winning 45 percent compared to Democrats’ 42 percent. (CNN)
In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 15-18; 846 RVs; +/- 3.5%), Democrats maintain “a 12-point lead among registered voters while improving to a wide 14-point advantage among likely voters in congressional preference. Democrats typically lose support in the shift to likely voters, given lower turnout among their stalwart groups. That’s not the case now: Among those most likely to vote, 54 percent support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared to 40 percent for the Republican. … In another key group, 51 percent of political independents support the Democratic candidate, compared to 37 percent for the Republican—a wide and important gap.” The survey was conducted by Langer Research Associates. (ABC News)
Meanwhile, an internal House GOP poll showed Democrats with a 4-point lead, winning 45 percent to 41 percent with 14 percent undecided. (Politico)
SHUTDOWN POLITICS. The DCCC launched a Facebook campaign blaming House Republicans for the government shutdown. It will target 50 districts, including the southern Wisconsin district held by Speaker Paul Ryan. (release)
“On Saturday morning, American Action Network, a pro-House GOP outside group, began airing commercials blaming the shutdown on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.” (Politico)