RACE FOR THE HOUSE

45Committee Polls Show Dems Up 12 on Generic Ballot

Several Republicans from high-tax states are set to vote no on the tax bill Tuesday.

Dec. 19, 2017, 9:27 a.m.

A new poll conducted for the 45Committee found Republicans trailing Democrats by 12 points on the generic ballot, 49 percent to 37 percent. But after “‘hearing the debate about the tax reform bill, the GOP generic ballot deficit closes to 8 points (41 percent -49 percent) … there is also good movement among some key sub-groups on the generic ballot, including a bigger margin in Republican-held districts.” The survey (Dec. 12-17; 800 voters; +/- 3.46%) was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. (Washington Examiner)

House Republicans will not on the final tax bill Tuesday. “Republicans say their gamble” on the tax bill “is a wise parlay: They’re betting both that it’s better to do something than nothing and that once Americans start feeling the benefits of the tax bill, the numbers will turn around. ‘I think it will get better if the Republicans hammer their narrative,’” said former NRCC Chairman Tom Davis.

“The question for many voters will be whether a relatively small boost in their take-home pay and a possible surge in the economy are worth bigger debt-financed tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. That has some Republicans worried that Democrats will be able to persuade voters the GOP is helping the rich at the expense of everyone else. ‘We’d be better off if there were more populist victories in there,’ former NRCC Chairman Tom Cole said. (NBC News)

HOW THEY’RE VOTING. Reps. Darrell Issa (R-CA 49) and Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA 48) will vote no on the tax bill. (Los Angeles Times)

Rep. John Faso (R-NY 19): “I still cannot vote for the conference committee package due to my overwhelming concern with the state and local income tax deduction.”

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY 23) will also vote against the bill. “Due to Albany’s failed leadership and inability to rein in spending, New York is one of the highest taxed states in the country, and families here rely on this important deduction to make ends meet,” she said. (Albany Times-Union)

LONG READ. “Many in the GOP are banking on Bliss, who has earned a reputation in some GOP circles as the party’s top campaign mind–and perhaps its next Karl Rove. ‘If anyone could build a breakwall [against a Democratic wave], it’s Corry,’ says Mark Isakowitz, a Bliss pal who recruited him to manage Senator Rob Portman’s 2016 campaign. But Bliss’ strategy of going into districts so early with person-to-person persuasion has met more than a few skeptics, including from his own party.” (Time)

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