Political Insiders Poll

Poll: Will Obamacare’s Rollout Hurt Senate Democrats in 2014?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell
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Michael Catalini Alex Roarty Peter Bell
Nov. 21, 2013, 4 p.m.

What are the chances that the prob­lem­at­ic rol­lout of Obama­care will ad­versely af­fect Sen­ate Demo­crats in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (100 VOTES)

Very likely: 19%
Some­what likely: 44%
Some­what un­likely: 31%
Very un­likely: 6%

Very likely

“En­dangered Dems are gone; com­pet­it­ive Dems are in trouble.”

“Right now, it’s feel­ing like we’re in the way­back ma­chine and 2010 is look­ing us square in the face.”

Some­what likely

“Obama needs two fixes im­me­di­ately: the Health­Care.gov web­site and au­thor­iz­ing people to keep their ex­ist­ing health in­sur­ance. Be­sides, soon we will be talk­ing about the GOP threat­en­ing to send the coun­try in­to de­fault, again.”

“Demo­crats will either lose some seats over this or the seats that they hold will be op­pos­ing Obama­care.”

“If the ship gets righted by sum­mer, Dems will be OK; oth­er­wise, a big prob­lem.”

“A month ago, every­one thought the shut­down had killed the Re­pub­lic­ans’ chance to take back the Sen­ate. Today, Obama­care has flipped the math.”

Some­what un­likely

“The elec­tions are still a year away, and dur­ing the middle of Oc­to­ber, every­one had the Demo­crats re­tain­ing the Sen­ate and pos­sibly win­ning the House.”

“The hit will be in the House rather than the Sen­ate.”

“If it works, life goes on. If it doesn’t work, pass the de­fib paddles.”

“It will only hap­pen if Dems knuckle un­der. Thirty-two mil­lion Amer­ic­ans still need health care.”

Very un­likely

“It’s like hav­ing cable in­stalled. When you can watch the Big 10 Net­work, you quickly for­get about the prob­lems with in­stall­a­tion.”

What are the chances that the prob­lem­at­ic rol­lout of Obama­care will ad­versely af­fect Sen­ate Demo­crats in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 VOTES)

Very likely: 66%
Some­what likely: 29%
Some­what un­likely: 3%
Very un­likely: 2%

Very likely

“Obama­care will be an an­vil tied to Sen­ate Demo­crats run­ning in 2014.”

“Overnight, Jeanne Shaheen has gone from be­ing one of its biggest back­ers to one of its biggest crit­ics. Whip­lash, any­one?”

“The cure for red-state Demo­crats from this law has yet to be found.”

“Un­less there is a na­tion­al se­cur­ity chal­lenge to ec­lipse it, Obama­care is the de­fin­ing is­sue of 2014.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans will be on Sen­ate Dems like Mi­ley Cyr­us on a foam fin­ger, come elec­tion sea­son.”

“Hope Re­pub­lic­ans have enough can­did­ates to go around.”

“This is an enorm­ous op­por­tun­ity for us; now, we just can’t blow it (see O’Don­nell, C., and Angle, S.).”

“Demo­crat­ic sen­at­ors made their meta­phor­ic­al hos­pit­al beds; voters will see that their ca­reers lie in them.”

Some­what likely

“Would you want to de­fend Obama­care in a red state right now?”

“Will help cre­ate op­por­tun­it­ies for GOP, but they’ll be largely wasted un­less top-draw­er can­did­ates are re­cruited.”

“The failed web­site screams out for smal­ler gov­ern­ment, and Obama’s brand has taken a beat­ing.”

“But they still get to run against Re­pub­lic­ans, the lucky dogs.”

“They will try to bob and weave, but too many have been too sup­port­ive to es­cape re­spons­ib­il­ity.”

Very un­likely

“Nev­er doubt the Re­pub­lic­ans’ abil­ity to change the sub­ject to their det­ri­ment.”

… … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

What are the chances that the problematic rollout of Obamacare will adversely affect Senate Democrats in 2014?

DEMO­CRATS (100 VOTES)

Very likely: 19%
Some­what likely: 44%
Some­what un­likely: 31%
Very un­likely: 6%

Very likely

“En­dangered Dems are gone; com­pet­it­ive Dems are in trouble.”

“Right now, it’s feel­ing like we’re in the way­back ma­chine and 2010 is look­ing us square in the face.”

Some­what likely

“Obama needs two fixes im­me­di­ately: the Health­Care.gov web­site and au­thor­iz­ing people to keep their ex­ist­ing health in­sur­ance. Be­sides, soon we will be talk­ing about the GOP threat­en­ing to send the coun­try in­to de­fault, again.”

“Demo­crats will either lose some seats over this or the seats that they hold will be op­pos­ing Obama­care.”

“If the ship gets righted by sum­mer, Dems will be OK; oth­er­wise, a big prob­lem.”

“A month ago, every­one thought the shut­down had killed the Re­pub­lic­ans’ chance to take back the Sen­ate. Today, Obama­care has flipped the math.”

Some­what un­likely

“The elec­tions are still a year away, and dur­ing the middle of Oc­to­ber, every­one had the Demo­crats re­tain­ing the Sen­ate and pos­sibly win­ning the House.”

“The hit will be in the House rather than the Sen­ate.”

“If it works, life goes on. If it doesn’t work, pass the de­fib paddles.”

“It will only hap­pen if Dems knuckle un­der. Thirty-two mil­lion Amer­ic­ans still need health care.”

Very un­likely

“It’s like hav­ing cable in­stalled. When you can watch the Big 10 Net­work, you quickly for­get about the prob­lems with in­stall­a­tion.”

What are the chances that the problematic rollout of Obamacare will adversely affect Senate Democrats in 2014?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (98 VOTES)

Very likely: 66%
Some­what likely: 29%
Some­what un­likely: 3%
Very un­likely: 2%

Very likely

“Obama­care will be an an­vil tied to Sen­ate Demo­crats run­ning in 2014.”

“Overnight, Jeanne Shaheen has gone from be­ing one of its biggest back­ers to one of its biggest crit­ics. Whip­lash, any­one?”

“The cure for red-state Demo­crats from this law has yet to be found.”

“Un­less there is a na­tion­al se­cur­ity chal­lenge to ec­lipse it, Obama­care is the de­fin­ing is­sue of 2014.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans will be on Sen­ate Dems like Mi­ley Cyr­us on a foam fin­ger, come elec­tion sea­son.”

“Hope Re­pub­lic­ans have enough can­did­ates to go around.”

“This is an enorm­ous op­por­tun­ity for us; now, we just can’t blow it (see O’Don­nell, C., and Angle, S.).”

“Demo­crat­ic sen­at­ors made their meta­phor­ic­al hos­pit­al beds; voters will see that their ca­reers lie in them.”

Some­what likely

“Would you want to de­fend Obama­care in a red state right now?”

“Will help cre­ate op­por­tun­it­ies for GOP, but they’ll be largely wasted un­less top-draw­er can­did­ates are re­cruited.”

“The failed web­site screams out for smal­ler gov­ern­ment, and Obama’s brand has taken a beat­ing.”

“But they still get to run against Re­pub­lic­ans, the lucky dogs.”

“They will try to bob and weave, but too many have been too sup­port­ive to es­cape re­spons­ib­il­ity.”

Very un­likely

“Nev­er doubt the Re­pub­lic­ans’ abil­ity to change the sub­ject to their det­ri­ment.”

… … … … . .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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