Spotlight

For Auld Lang Syne

NEW YORK, NY - DECEMBER 17: The 14 Days To New Year's '14' unveiling at Times Square Visitor Center on December 17, 2013 in New York City.
National Journal
Julie Sobel, Karyn Bruggeman, Scott Bland and Steven Shepard
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Julie Sobel Karyn Bruggeman and Scott Bland and Steven Shepard
Dec. 23, 2013, 6:45 a.m.

On Fri­day, we shared what we learned in 2013. Today, for our fi­nal is­sue of the year, we look for­ward to 2014 with our Fear­less Pre­dic­tions for the year ahead.

No Sen­ate in­cum­bent will lose a primary: Sen. Thad Co­chran (R-MS) is the most vul­ner­able, with out­side groups lin­ing up quickly be­hind his con­ser­vat­ive chal­lenger, state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R). But Co­chran, 76, seemed en­er­gized by the chal­lenge when he an­nounced he’d run again. Sen. Bri­an Schatz (D-HI) faces Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI), but Schatz put some dis­tance between the two in third-quarter fun­drais­ing, a sign that he may be con­sol­id­at­ing Demo­crat­ic sup­port. We think former Michigan Sec­ret­ary of State Terri Lynn Land‘s (R) chances to be­come the first Re­pub­lic­an to win a Sen­ate race in Michigan since 1994 are in­creas­ing.

Demo­crats will mount a strong chal­lenge in the Kan­sas gubernat­ori­al race: Gov. Sam Brown­back (R) and con­ser­vat­ives have wrestled con­trol of the state GOP from a cadre of mod­er­ate Re­pub­lic­ans in the mold of Bob Dole and Nancy Kasse­baum. An auto­mated-tele­phone poll this fall showed state House Minor­ity Lead­er Paul Dav­is (D) nar­rowly ahead of Brown­back, and that was be­fore a group of mod­er­ates an­nounced they were form­ing a co­ali­tion to op­pose Brown­back’s agenda, with some threat­en­ing to unite be­hind Dav­is. In oth­er GOV races, we think Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn‘s (D) luck holds, and he wins reelec­tion des­pite low ap­prov­al rat­ings. And we think Re­pub­lic­ans un­der­es­tim­ate Texas state Sen. Wendy Dav­is (D) at their own per­il.

Obama’s ap­prov­al rat­ing won’t re­bound with a re­cov­er­ing eco­nomy: The un­em­ploy­ment rate in Novem­ber is at its low­est point in five years, and yet Pres­id­ent Obama re­mains mired in the low 40s. Voters tell poll­sters that the eco­nomy is their No. 1 is­sue, but their per­cep­tions of the eco­nomy are out of line with the over­all data that show grow­ing GDP and shrink­ing un­em­ploy­ment. Blame for that lies with grow­ing in­equal­ity and in­creas­ing po­lar­iz­a­tion.

That’s just a small taste of what we’re ex­pect­ing in 2014. Merry Christ­mas and Happy New Year; we’ll see you back here on Janu­ary 2nd.

What We're Following See More »
23 MILLION FEWER INSURED IN 2026
Congressional Budget Office Scores House Trumpcare Bill
2 hours ago
BREAKING

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has released its score of the House-passed American Health Care Act, which would replace Obamacare. According to the CBO, the bill would reduce the deficit by $119 billion by 2026, while leaving 14 million more Americans uninsured in 2018 than under current law, a number swelling to 23 million by 2026. Further, insurance premiums would balloon 20 percent in 2018 and five percent in 2019 before the waiver provision in the legislation would kick in. The provision allows states to apply for waivers and permit insurers to offer skimpier plans, which would likely entice younger and healthier individuals to buy health insurance while potentially pricing older and less healthy Americans out of insurance plans. House Republicans approved this bill in late April without waiting for the CBO score.

Source:
GOP DISCORD
Graham Rejects Trump’s Budget In Hearing
2 hours ago
THE DETAILS

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham said Wednesday during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing that President Donald Trump's budget is little more than recycling bin material. "The budget proposed by the president doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing," Graham said. Graham had previously opposed the budget over its nearly 30 percent cut to the budget of the State Department. The budget slashes spending on domestic priorities while increasing military spending.

Source:
PREFERS “CLEAN” BILL
Mnuchin Looks To Avoid Debt Ceiling Fight
9 hours ago
THE DETAILS
“THAT’S THE GOAL”
McConnell Not Sure How To Get 50 Votes For Health Care
10 hours ago
THE LATEST

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that he doesn't yet know the formula towards gaining passage of an Obamacare replacement in the Senate. "I don't know how we get to 50 (votes) at the moment. But that's the goal," McConnell said. The House passed an Obamacare replacement bill which has been widely seen as dead on arrival in the Senate, and McConnell has put together a working group of Republican Senators working towards creating health care legislation which could gain the support of at least 50 Senators.

Source:
BUT WHITE HOUSE MAY USE AGAINST HIM ANYWAY
Ethics Cops Clear Mueller to Work on Trump Case
1 days ago
THE LATEST

"Former FBI Director Robert Mueller has been cleared by U.S. Department of Justice ethics experts to oversee an investigation into possible collusion between then-candidate Donald Trump's 2016 election campaign and Russia." Some had speculated that the White House would use "an ethics rule limiting government attorneys from investigating people their former law firm represented" to trip up Mueller's appointment. Jared Kushner is a client of Mueller's firm, WilmerHale. "Although Mueller has now been cleared by the Justice Department, the White House may still use his former law firm's connection to Manafort and Kushner to undermine the findings of his investigation, according to two sources close to the White House."

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login