ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

Will Johnson Affect Trump-Clinton Race?

2012 data shows GOP still has room to grow with white voters.

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Ally Mutnick
June 13, 2016, 10:20 a.m.

It’s still un­clear how former New Mex­ico Gov. Gary John­son’s (L) third-party bid will af­fect the match up between real es­tate mogul Don­ald Trump (R) and former Sec­ret­ary of State Hil­lary Clin­ton (D).

“Polling is not defin­it­ive on the sub­ject, but for John­son, the big­ger test is pulling sup­port from any­one at all. One sur­vey this week from Fox News gave him 12 per­cent of the vote in a three-way race with Clin­ton and Trump — a de­cent show­ing for a can­did­ate that most voters don’t know, or don’t know is a former gov­ernor, or don’t know is a pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate. The key for John­son is to con­tin­ue to be in­cluded in na­tion­al polls at all — and to move that num­ber up to 15 per­cent, so he qual­i­fies for the fall de­bates.” (Wash­ing­ton Post)

WHITE VOTE RE­MIX. “Party lead­ers’ as­sump­tion at the be­gin­ning of the cam­paign was that Re­pub­lic­ans needed to dra­mat­ic­ally im­prove their per­form­ance with His­pan­ic voters to win, and that there wasn’t much room for growth with white voters. In real­ity, in many of the battle­ground states that Pres­id­ent Obama tar­geted, Rom­ney un­der­achieved with whites. If you want to un­der­stand how Trump is (still) run­ning com­pet­it­ively against Clin­ton des­pite ali­en­at­ing nearly every non­white group in the coun­try,” ana­lys­is of data from the Demo­crat­ic firm Ca­tal­ist by Nate Cohn of the New York Times, “helps ex­plain it.” (Na­tion­al Journ­al)

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