Political Insiders Poll

Poll: How Likely Is the United States to Breach the Debt Ceiling?

Peter Bell, Alex Roarty and Michael Catalini
Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Peter Bell Alex Roarty and Michael Catalini
Oct. 3, 2013, 4 p.m.

How likely is it that the debt-ceil­ing lim­it won’t be raised in time to avoid de­fault?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 21%
Likely: 23%
Not likely: 57%

Very Likely

“For some reas­on, the GOP thinks this is their Wa­ter­loo.”

“We went off the rails on the con­tinu­ing res­ol­u­tion, and the crazy train hasn’t stopped yet.”

“This Con­gress has shown a will­ing­ness to do any­thing to make a polit­ic­al point, even against our na­tion­al in­terest.”

“That doesn’t mean there will be a de­fault, though.”

Likely

“The in­mates are in con­trol of the asylum.”

“The tea-party con­ser­vat­ives are like the kid who blows stuff up in the mi­crowave just to see what hap­pens.”

“The busi­ness com­munity that funds many of the ni­hil­ist Re­pub­lic­ans will force them to the table.”

Not likely

“The only sure­fire way for Re­pub­lic­ans to lose Con­gress would be to al­low a debt de­fault.”

“If the Re­pub­lic­ans cre­ate de­fault through polit­ic­al games and crash the mar­kets, the back­lash across the board will be bru­tal.”

“The GOP ap­pears wisely to have chosen the budget rather than the debt ceil­ing to fight over — shut­down is far less de­struct­ive than de­fault.”

“Tea-party Re­pub­lic­ans will aban­don kami­kaze mis­sion pri­or to crash­ing the world’s eco­nomy.”

“The Re­pub­lic­ans are crazy, but not that crazy.”

“The prob­lem for Re­pub­lic­ans is that some of them don’t have the cour­age to go through with their threats, and some of them are too smart to al­low it.”

“Any­thing is pos­sible with the tea-party House, but the pres­sure will mount and a deal will prob­ably be made in two weeks.”

“Wall Street will nev­er al­low it.”

How likely is it that the debt-ceil­ing lim­it won’t be raised in time to avoid de­fault?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (99 VOTES)

Very likely: 12%
Likely: 22%
Not likely: 66%

Very likely

“Someone has brain­washed these guys in­to think­ing that in­ac­tion is akin to a hard day’s work on the Pon­der­osa. If past is pro­logue, noth­ing will get done in time.”

“Every­one is spoil­ing for a fight.”

Likely

“Get ready: We’re de­fin­ing dys­func­tion­al­ity down in Wash­ing­ton.”

“Two sep­ar­ate is­sues. Debt ceil­ing may not be raised by Oct. 17, but we will not de­fault.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans are play­ing a very dan­ger­ous game.”

“Obama and Demo­crats are too con­fid­ent they win in such a scen­ario.”

Not likely

“That’s more of a hope than a pre­dic­tion.”

“For­cing a de­fault could nev­er be ex­plained or for­giv­en. One must have faith that in­stincts for re­spons­ible gov­ern­ment, or at least self-pre­ser­va­tion, will trump the quack pre­scrip­tions of people like Ted Cruz.”

“No one wants their 401(k) to plum­met by a mar­ket crash.”

“They aren’t THAT stu­pid … or are they?”

“It’s a host­age very few would ac­tu­ally be will­ing to shoot.”

“For­tu­nately, we still have a crit­ic­al mass of think­ing con­ser­vat­ives who un­der­stand the dire im­plic­a­tions for the eco­nomy if the fed­er­al gov­ern­ment de­faults.”

“Hope­fully, saner heads will pre­vail, al­though that may be just a hope and a pray­er.”

“Fin­an­cial mar­kets have one foot in the grave, and one foot on a ba­nana peel. I re­fuse to be­lieve these guys are stu­pid enough to mess with that.”

… … … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud. 

What We're Following See More »
PROBE CAME FROM INQUIRY INTO MANAFORT’S FINANCES
Mueller Investigating Tony Podesta and His Firm
3 hours ago
THE LATEST

"Tony Podesta and the Podesta Group are now the subjects of a federal investigation being led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, three sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC News. The probe of Podesta and his Democratic-leaning lobbying firm grew out of Mueller's inquiry into the finances of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort."

Source:
OFF TO MICHIGAN, SURPRISE TRIP
FLOTUS to Kick Off Anti-Bullying Initiative
4 hours ago
THE LATEST

"First lady Melania Trump is making good on a promise she made earlier this year to combat childhood bullying, taking a surprise trip Monday to a middle school in a Detroit suburb." She is bringing awareness to the problem with a campaign she found called #NoOneEatsAlone, which encourages kids to be inclusive.

Source:
SURPRISE VISIT
Tillerson in Kabul
4 hours ago
THE LATEST
WITHOUT NAMING HIM, CALLS OUT “BONE SPUR”
McCain Needles Trump on Vietnam
5 hours ago
THE DETAILS
SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY
House Intel Will Interview Trump Digital Director
5 hours ago
THE LATEST

"President Donald Trump’s campaign digital director, Brad Parscale, will be interviewed Tuesday by the House Intelligence Committee, his first appearance before any of the panels examining the issue of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr. Parscale confirmed his scheduled appearance. The Senate committees also probing interference haven’t scheduled time with Mr. Parscale, he said, declining to comment further."

Source:
×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login