Despite Republican pessimism over a flawed nominee in this Tuesday’s closely-watched FL-13 special election between Alex Sink (D) and David Jolly (R), all indications are Tuesday’s bellwether contest should be a nailbiter.
— As of Sunday, Republicans hold a four-point (4,623 vote) lead over Democrats among early voters, which should comprise a majority of the electorate. The early GOP vote edge is smaller than the party’s advantages before the 2010 and 2012 FL-GOV and presidential elections, where Democrats prevailed within the district. But Republicans are expecting strong Election Day turnout, while hoping to capitalize on disaffection among independents and even some Democrats, too.
— The contest is proving to be a crucial test of whether Democrats can defend themselves from attacks over Obamacare and the president’s policies. FL-13 is one of the oldest CDs in the country, filled with plenty of seniors disaffected with the president. (Obama narrowly won with 50% in 2012.) A Sink victory would show that despite the tough environment Democrats face, they can prevail with a strong candidate and effective get-out-the-vote efforts. Sink was hit with ads attacking her support for Obamacare; her pivot calling for fixes over repeal is something we’ll be hearing from other vulnerable Democrats.
— Republicans are grousing about Jolly’s problems as a candidate, but his flaws were apparent from the outset. For a lobbyist, he didn’t leverage his connections into raising the money necessary for a nationally-watched campaign. His Washington ties didn’t help him bring in talented people to run his race, either. It’s a lesson of the importance of recruiting and backing electable candidates. But if Republicans can win despite a weak nominee, it’s a sign 2014 could be yet another wave election.
One wild card: the presence of Libertarian Lucas Overby on the ballot, who has polled in the mid single-digits. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) recorded a last-minute robocall to urge his supporters to back Jolly. If this race is as close as the early vote indicates, it’s plausible that the third-party candidate could play the role of spoiler.
— Josh Kraushaar
What We're Following See More »
Following their meeting, President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico and Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump, briefly addressed the media, with Peña Nieto subtly rebuking Trump's rhetoric. While he spoke respectfully about Trump, Peña Nieto did not back down, saying that free trade has proved effective and that illegal immigration into America from the south has decreased over the last ten years while the flow of people and drugs into Mexico has increased. Additionally, he stressed that Mexicans in America are "honest" and "deserve respect." Trump responded, calling some Mexicans "tremendous people" while saying others are "beyond reproach." Trump laid out five important issues, including the end of illegal immigration and the ability for either country to build a wall or border. However, Trump said he did not discuss who would pay for the wall.
A divided Supreme Court "refused Wednesday to reinstate North Carolina’s voter identification requirement and keep just 10 days of early in-person voting. The court rejected a request by Gov. Pat McCrory and other state officials to delay a lower court ruling that found the state law was tainted by racial discrimination."
"Police say a woman walked into U.S. Rep. Danny Davis' office on Chicago's West Side, drank out of a bottle of hand sanitizer, poured the sanitizer over herself and set herself on fire with a lighter." The Democrat wasn't in the office at the time.
"The Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday awarded 44 states, four tribes and the District of Columbia a combined $53 million in grants to expand access to treatment for opioid use disorders and ultimately aimed at reducing the number of opioid-related deaths." But HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell and drug czar Michael Botticelli both called on Congress to approve the $1.1 billion Obama has requested to fight the opioid crisis.