Politics: White House

Obama: Congress Must Act on FAA

Add to Briefcase
See more stories about...
Aug. 3, 2011, 10:40 a.m.

A CNN/Time/Opin­ion Re­search Corp. poll; con­duc­ted 10/1-5; sur­veyed 1,501 adults; mar­gin of er­ror +/- 2.5%. Sub­sample of 1,277 RVs; mar­gin of er­ror +/- 2.7%. Fur­ther sub­sample of 773 LVs; mar­gin of er­ror +/- 3.5% (re­lease, 10/6).

Obama As POTUS

- LVs LVs LVs - All RVs LVs Dem GOP Ind Ap­prove 52% 52% 46% 84% 11% 40% Dis­ap­prove 39 42 49 12 86 53

(For more from this poll, please see today’s CT SEN and CT GOV stor­ies.)

Say It Ain’t So, Joe

A Pub­lic Policy Polling (D) (IVR) poll; con­duc­ted 9/30-10/2; sur­veyed 810 LVs; mar­gin of er­ror +/- 3.4% (re­leases, 10/6-7). Party ID break­down: 41%D, 28%R, 31%I. Tested: Sen. Joe Lieber­man (I), Rep. Chris Murphy (D-05), Gov. Jodi Rell (R) and busi­ness­man Peter Schiff (R).

SEN ‘12 Gen­er­al Elec­tion Match­ups

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom C. Murphy 39% 61% 14% 32% 38% 39% P. Schiff 25 6 49 28 29 20 J. Lieber­man 19 16 24 18 16 22 Un­dec 17 16 13 22 16 19 - All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom C. Murphy 37% 62% 10% 29% 37% 38% J. Rell 29 12 52 33 32 27 J. Lieber­man 17 14 22 18 18 16 Un­dec 16 13 16 20 14 19 - All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom C. Murphy 47% 70% 20% 41% 45% 49% J. Lieber­man 33 17 59 33 36 31 Un­dec 20 13 22 27 19 20

Lieber­man As Sen.

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/5(RVs) Ap­prove 31% 20% 46% 31% 30% 31% 25% Dis­ap­prove 57 69 41 56 58 57 67

Dodd As Sen.

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/5(RVs) Ap­prove 36% 59% 13% 26% 32% 41% 29% Dis­ap­prove 54 29 81 63 60 48 57

Rell As Gov.

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom 1/5(RVs) Ap­prove 53% 44% 64% 56% 51% 55% 49% Dis­ap­prove 36 44 26 34 38 34 39

House Gen­er­al Elec­tion Match­up

- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Gen­er­ic Dem 44% 80% 8% 29% 39% 50% Gen­er­ic GOP­er 42 12 85 43 49 34 Un­dec 14 8 7 27 12 16

(For more from this poll, please see today’s CT GOV story.)

By this time next week, there should be enough na­tion­al and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear pic­ture of where this elec­tion stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the can­did­ates may have got­ten from the con­ven­tions. But we have seen enough data in re­cent weeks to draw some pre­lim­in­ary con­clu­sions about the con­tests for the White House, the Sen­ate, and, to a less­er ex­tent, the House.

The pres­id­en­tial race is still close and, in a tight elec­tion, either can­did­ate can win. Any num­ber of events, not the least of which are de­bates, cam­paign gaffes, and do­mest­ic or in­ter­na­tion­al de­vel­op­ments, could put Pres­id­ent Obama or Mitt Rom­ney over the top. Al­though it is pretty clear that Obama has an edge over Rom­ney in na­tion­al and swing-state polling, the size of his ad­vant­age re­mains in doubt. Every event or de­vel­op­ment should be judged on wheth­er it might change the path of this elec­tion.

My view is that if Obama is reelec­ted, it will be des­pite the eco­nomy and be­cause of his cam­paign; if Mitt Rom­ney wins, it will be be­cause of the eco­nomy and des­pite his cam­paign. This eco­nomy is an enorm­ous mill­stone around Obama’s neck, yet he and his cam­paign have man­aged to se­cure the up­per hand — al­beit with a very tenu­ous grip. At the same time, des­pite an enorm­ous ad­vant­age that the slug­gish eco­nomy and the sen­ti­ment for change af­fords him, Rom­ney and his cam­paign, to an as­ton­ish­ing de­gree, seem to have squandered too many op­por­tun­it­ies and un­der­mined his chances of win­ning.

It should be em­phas­ized again and again that this cam­paign isn’t over and that the race is still aw­fully close. But without a change in the tra­ject­ory, it’s a good bet that Obama will come out on top. The ques­tions are wheth­er the op­por­tun­ity will arise for that tra­ject­ory to change and wheth­er the Rom­ney cam­paign be able to ef­fect­ively cap­it­al­ize on it.

Look­ing at the math of the Sen­ate a year and a half ago, Demo­crats were hav­ing to de­fend 23 seats and the GOP just 10. Demo­crats had sev­en open seats, com­pared with just two for Re­pub­lic­ans; the arith­met­ic ar­gued strongly that Re­pub­lic­ans had a real shot at over­turn­ing the cur­rent 53-47 Demo­crat­ic ma­jor­ity. At the time, it looked as if Re­pub­lic­ans had at least a 60 per­cent, maybe even a 70 per­cent, chance of pre­vail­ing. Now, a 45 per­cent chance of a GOP ma­jor­ity is prob­ably closer to the mark. It’s not that a pro-Re­pub­lic­an tide has waned, but that de­vel­op­ments in in­di­vidu­al states have hurt Re­pub­lic­ans more than Demo­crats, chan­ging the status from “strong edge” for the GOP to “some­what up­hill.”

There are at least two im­port­ant, yet seem­ingly op­pos­ing, dy­nam­ics at work in the Sen­ate races. The first is an in­tensi­fy­ing po­lar­iz­a­tion that is mak­ing many con­tests more com­pet­it­ive and closer than they were even a month ago. Par­tis­ans, and even those just lean­ing to­ward one party or the oth­er, have come home very quickly. This is true in Flor­ida and Ohio, where Re­pub­lic­an chal­lengers have closed the gap against Demo­crat­ic in­cum­bents. This in­creased po­lar­iz­a­tion is work­ing against the GOP in Hawaii and New Mex­ico, where the party has fielded es­pe­cially tal­en­ted can­did­ates. These chal­lengers gave Re­pub­lic­ans reas­on for hope in two Demo­crat­ic-tilt­ing states, but as Pres­id­ent Obama has so­lid­i­fied his stand­ing there, early GOP op­tim­ism no longer seems war­ran­ted.

The second dy­nam­ic is that neither party ap­pears to have the wind at its back. As a res­ult, can­did­ates and the qual­ity of their cam­paigns mat­ter more than they have in the last three elec­tions. This ex­plains why Demo­crat­ic can­did­ates in In­di­ana and North Dakota are more than hold­ing their own, mak­ing those two races in Re­pub­lic­an-lean­ing states more com­pet­it­ive than they ought to be. Re­pub­lic­ans are also be­ne­fit­ing from this. In Mas­sachu­setts, GOP Sen. Scott Brown is stat­ist­ic­ally tied with Demo­crat Eliza­beth War­ren, des­pite the state’s strong Demo­crat­ic tilt. And, in Con­necti­c­ut, Re­pub­lic­an Linda McMa­hon has a lead over Demo­crat­ic Rep. Chris Murphy, largely be­cause she has run the bet­ter race to date. Per­haps whatever bi­as voters may have had against McMa­hon dur­ing her ill-fated 2010 Sen­ate cam­paign be­cause of her back­ground as a pro­fes­sion­al-wrest­ling ex­ec­ut­ive is no longer as much of a li­ab­il­ity.

These strong and even some­times con­tra­dict­ory dy­nam­ics have cre­ated much more un­cer­tainty in the Sen­ate pic­ture in the past month. Now, 15 seats — 10 held by Demo­crats and five by Re­pub­lic­ans — can be called com­pet­it­ive. Ten or pos­sibly 11 oth­ers can be con­sidered le­git­im­ate toss-ups — six or sev­en held by Demo­crats and four held by Re­pub­lic­ans.

The House still seems to be a hard-fought but fairly evenly matched fight, with little chance of a ma­jor shift in either dir­ec­tion. If there is a sig­ni­fic­ant turnover, it will have been triggered by something that hasn’t happened yet.

What We're Following See More »
KIM CALLS TRUMP A “DOTARD”
North Korea Threatens H-Bomb Test Over Pacific
1 days ago
THE LATEST

"North Korea said on Friday it might test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean after President Donald Trump vowed to destroy the reclusive country, with leader Kim Jong Un promising to make Trump pay dearly for his threats. Kim did not specify what action he would take against the United States or Trump, whom he called a 'mentally deranged U.S. dotard' in the latest bout of insults the two leaders have traded in recent weeks."

Source:
INFORMS CONGRESS RE: EXECUTIVE ORDER
Trump Makes Good on Promise of New North Korea Sanctions
1 days ago
THE LATEST

President Trump this afternoon announced another round of sanctions on North Korea, calling the regime "a continuing threat." The executive order, which Trump relayed to Congress, bans any ship or plane that has visited North Korea from visiting the United States within 180 days. The order also authorizes sanctions on any financial institution doing business with North Korea, and permits the secretaries of State and the Treasury to sanction any person involved in trading with North Korea, operating a port there, or involved in a variety of industries there.

SOUTH KOREA WILL SEND AID
Trump Promises More Sanctions on North Korea
2 days ago
THE LATEST

In response to a reporter's question, President Trump said "he’ll be looking to impose further financial penalties on North Korea over its nuclear and ballistic tests. ... The U.N. has passed two resolutions recently aimed at squeezing the North Korean economy by cutting off oil, labor and exports to the nation." Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that South Korea's unification ministry is sending an $8m aid package aimed at infants and pregnant women in North Korea. The "humanitarian gesture [is] at odds with calls by Japan and the US for unwavering economic and diplomatic pressure on Pyongyang."

Source:
HIGHLIGHT ISSUES FACING KIDS
FLOTUS to Speak at UN Luncheon
3 days ago
THE LATEST
PRESSES CASE FOR REFORMS
Trump Meets with UN Leaders
3 days ago
THE LATEST

President Trump on Tuesday night met with UN Secretary Guterres and President of the General Assembly Miroslav Lajcak. In both cases, as per releases from the White House, Trump pressed them on the need to reform the UN bureaucracy.

×
×

Welcome to National Journal!

You are currently accessing National Journal from IP access. Please login to access this feature. If you have any questions, please contact your Dedicated Advisor.

Login