Q: Make one prediction about the next 10 years in American politics.
“The national Republican Party continues to disintegrate.”
“The Democrats will rebound locally.”
“The Republican Party splits in two.”
“Our immense partisan divide will finally lead to a rise in a real third party. Or both the Democratic and Republican parties will split into two parts, the extreme and the sane pieces.”
“There will be consistent viable independent candidates in statewide races in reaction to the hyper-partisanship of the two main political parties. But, because of gerrymandered districts, legislative and congressional races will be dominated by the two main parties.”
“The emergence of a third party based upon somewhat conservative economic principles, social tolerance, and strong national security.”
“At least one of the major parties will fracture off its fringe wing and run a viable third-party presidential candidate.”
“More independents are elected and a legitimate independent runs for president, but there won’t be enough agreement for an independent party.”
“A Clinton-Ryan gridlock will lead to a Clinton-Ryan 2020 campaign. The race will be about who caused
“America will elect its first female president in 2016, and by 2024, its first Hispanic.”
“Arizona will vote Democratic in the presidential election.”
“New Hampshire and Iowa will remain first in the presidential primary process.”
“More nonwhite voters will be registered to vote than white voters.”
“Women will dominate electoral politics as an answer to massive dysfunction.”
“Social media is going to continue to disrupt the status quo—in a bad way. As balkanized as things are today, they are going to get worse as narrow special interests use social media to bully and agitate to get their way.”
“More gridlock, lower turnout.”
“We will come to our senses. A responsible conservative party will reconstitute itself, and together with those who then lead the Obama coalition, a new pragmatic consensus on foreign and domestic policy will [emerge].”
“We will take on gun control.”
“There will be a substantial increase in violence by gun[s].”
“Trusted technology will exist to allow secure online voting. The Republicans will oppose it. In 20 years, the majority of Americans will vote for president online.”
Q: Make one prediction about the next 10 years in American politics.
Future of the GOP
“Republicans will either flourish due to nominating Rubio or will cease to function as a credible national party due to the nomination of Trump.”
“Republicans take over more and more local governments around the nation.”
“GOP will control the House that whole 10 years. GOP will control the Senate at least eight of the 10 years.”
“A viable third political party will rise, causing one of the current two parties (likely the GOP) to atrophy to the point it is no longer competitive.”
“Neither Dems nor GOP will have a majority in either chamber. Independents, third-party groups will continue to grow. [Government] by coalition will first appear in USA by mid-’20s.”
“An independent candidate will win the presidency.”
“President Marco Rubio will have completed two successful terms as president.”
“The Republican Party will not win another presidential election in my lifetime.”
“Iowa and New Hampshire can kiss their first-in-the-nation status goodbye. The rest of America is tired of seeing every presidential candidate visit every yogurt shop and hardware store in these states while ignoring others except to raise money.”
“The Republican Party will nominate someone other than a white male for president.”
“Republicans will adapt more quickly than anyone thinks possible at the moment to the demographic changes and challenges of the New America.”
“By 2026, at least 20 percent of African-Americans will be voting Republican.”
“The Supreme Court will reinterpret its legal fiction regarding super PACs, and campaign funding will return to its more traditional model.”
“All limits on campaign finance will be eliminated, save for immediate and complete reporting.”
“Elections will continue to get more expensive, more money will be raised, and campaigning will start even earlier. There will come the time that the public will rise up and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ ”
“Broadcast advertising will decline in importance and as a percentage of campaign budgets, as campaigns microtarget voters instead.”
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