Political Insiders Poll

What’s the chance of a Democrat taking David Vitter’s Senate seat?

Louisiana gubernatorial candidate Sen. David Vitter, R-La., announces his defeat during his election night watch party in Kenner, La., Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015. Vitter said he is not going to run again for the U.S. Senate after losing in an upset race for governor to Democrat John Bel Edwards.
AP Photo/Max Becherer
Dec. 4, 2015, 5 a.m.

Q: Fol­low­ing Sen. Dav­id Vit­ter’s de­feat and re­tire­ment an­nounce­ment, what chance do Demo­crats have of tak­ing his Sen­ate seat?

DEMO­CRATS (80 VOTES)

A good chance: 14%
Some chance: 64%
No chance: 22%

A good chance

“With the right can­did­ate and a big pres­id­en­tial turnout, Louisi­ana can fi­nally look a lot like Vir­gin­ia.”

Some chance

“Vit­ter was a spe­cial situ­ation. But Dems need to take ad­vant­age of them all.”

“La. is not purple yet, but neither is it a lost cause.”

“Will Demo­crats have an­oth­er ma­gic elec­tion? Hard to ima­gine, but the Louisi­ana elec­tion sys­tem cre­ates volat­il­ity.”

“But only if a Landrieu runs.”

No chance

“Beat­ing him was the only shot.”

“Come on. Don’t even try, team.”

“When pigs fly—which they have been known to do in Louisi­ana, but not this time.”

 Q: Fol­low­ing Sen. Dav­id Vit­ter’s de­feat and re­tire­ment an­nounce­ment, what chance do Demo­crats have of tak­ing his Sen­ate seat?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (78 VOTES)

A good chance: 3%
Some chance: 46%
No chance: 51%

Some chance

“Nev­er say, ‘No chance,’ but it’s an in­creas­ingly rough road in the South for any­one prom­ising to pro­mote na­tion­al Demo­crat­ic policies.”

“More and more, this looks like the out­come will hinge on wheth­er Re­pubs nom­in­ate a strong pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate.”

“Chances im­prove greatly if Trump is the nom­in­ee.”

No chance

“Evan­gel­ic­als nev­er trus­ted Vit­ter; they will rally be­hind a new GOP can­did­ate for the Sen­ate seat.”

“Mary Landrieu was the Demo­crats’ last gasp at hold­ing on to a Sen­ate seat, and with Vit­ter out of the way, Re­pub­lic­ans can put for­ward a strong com­pet­it­or for this seat.”

“Min­im­al (but not zero) chance. Vit­ter was a unique situ­ation.”

“Pres­id­en­tial year—no bag­gage, GOP can­did­ate wins!”

“Louisi­ana has not changed. He would have lost his Sen­ate seat five years ago if someone had taken the trouble to op­pose him.”

“Gov­ernors’ races are not na­tion­al­ized like Sen­ate and House races. Look at Mary­land and Mas­sachu­setts.”

… … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chávez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk Van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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