After the excitement of last week’s late-night primaries, this week’s nominating contests look a little more sedate. But there’s still plenty to keep an eye on as voters in five states head to the polls Tuesday. Here are the top four primaries to watch on June 10.
SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE
At the beginning of last year, Sen. Lindsey Graham looked like a prime example of the type of GOP incumbent getting challenged in primaries these days. Since then, he’s turned into a prime example of the type of Republican who escapes such a fate somewhat comfortably.
Graham’s moderate stances on climate change, immigration, and several more issues damaged his standing with parts of South Carolina’s famously factional Republican Party in the last six years. But Graham’s aggressive campaigning and fundraising — he raised nearly $6.5 million in the past year and a half and spent even more than that over the same period — kept that specter of intra-party threat from growing into anything more real. Graham was not only in a comfortable first place in his primary in the most recent Palmetto poll from Clemson University, he was at 49 percent support, on the cusp of the majority he’d need to avoid a runoff and win the nomination outright. More than a third of the electorate said they were undecided, while the closest Republican to Graham was still languishing in single-digits.
Meanwhile, appointed Sen. Tim Scott is on the ballot, too, and he’s going to cruise through his first statewide primary with ease. He technically has a primary challenger, but there’s nothing to the challenge. Not only do 65 percent of South Carolina Republicans give Scott an “excellent” or “good” rating, according to that Palmetto poll, but, as the Charleston Post and Courier wrote in May, “Repeated efforts by state media to locate [Scott’s opponent] have been unsuccessful.”
MAINE’S 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
When Democratic Rep. Michael Michaud announced last year that he would run for governor, that left his district — a vast stretch of northern Maine that is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River — open for new representation. Two Democrats from the state Senate, Emily Cain and Troy Jackson, leaped at the opportunity. Jackson is well-connected with local labor, never a liability in a Democratic primary, but Cain has cast Jackson’s voting record as insufficiently progressive on several major issues: abortion, same-sex marriage, and the environment. EMILY’s List, the Democratic women’s group, and the League of Conservation Voters have spent over $200,000 between them boosting Cain. Whoever wins on Tuesday will be a favorite, but definitely not a lock, to represent the district in 2015. Republicans Bruce Poliquin (who previously lost two statewide GOP primaries) and Kevin Raye (who previously lost two races against Michaud) are competing for their party’s nomination.
VIRGINIA’S 7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
No one expects House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to lose his primary Tuesday, and he’ll probably win comfortably. But the aggressive campaign Cantor had to run against local economics professor Dave Brat symbolizes how, even if not very many incumbents are losing primaries, those nominating contests have still gotten much less stable than in the past. Cantor aired negative TV ads against Brat, sent mailers boasting about defeating a pro-“amnesty” immigration-reform plan, and spent more money than usual on campaign activities (as opposed to fundraising for the rest of his party), all unusually forceful moves for a party leader up for renomination.
VIRGINIA’S 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Democratic Rep. Jim Moran is retiring, giving his party the opportunity to anoint the next member of Congress from his safely Democratic section of Northern Virginia. Former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer appears to be the front-runner in a crowded field of seven Democratic primary hopefuls, thanks not only to his prior political experience but also because of the name recognition and wealth that come with owning a successful local car dealership and serving as the national finance chair for a presidential candidate (Howard Dean in 2004). There has been a little outside money spent on behalf of state Del. Patrick Hope, but Beyer’s million-dollar campaign has outstripped the rest of the divided field. Moran hasn’t endorsed anyone, telling The Washington Post that “it wouldn’t be fair.”
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“In the spring of 1971, I met a girl,” started Bill Clinton. In his speech Tuesday night at the Democratic National Convention, Clinton brought a personal touch, telling parallel stories of his relationship with Hillary Clinton and the work she has done throughout her career. He lauded the Democratic nominee for her career of work, touching on her earliest days of advocacy for children and those with disabilities while in law school, her role as Secretary of State, and her work in raising their daughter, Chelsea. Providing a number of anecdotes throughout the speech, Clinton built to a crescendo, imploring the audience to support his wife for president. "You should elect her, she'll never quit when the going gets tough," he said. "Your children and grandchildren will be grateful."
A coalition of mothers whose children lost their lives in high profile cases across the country, known as the Mothers Of The Movement, were greeted with deafening chants of "Black Lives Matter" before telling their stories. The mothers of Sandra Bland, Jordan Davis, and Trayvon Martin spoke for the group, soliciting both tears and applause from the crowd. "Hillary Clinton has the compassion and understanding to comfort a grieving mother," said Sybrina Fulton, the mother of Trayvon Martin. "And that's why, in the memory of our children, we are imploring you — all of you — to vote this election day."
With the South Dakota delegation announcing its delegate count, Hillary Rodham Clinton is officially the Democratic nominee for president, surpassing the 2383 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Clinton is expected to speak at the convention on Thursday night and officially accept the nomination.
About 5,500, according to official estimates. "The Monday figures marked a large increase from the protests at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, where even the largest protests only drew a couple of hundred demonstrators. But it’s a far cry from the 35,000 to 50,000 that Philadelphia city officials initially expected."
Only a day after FiveThirtyEight's Now Cast gave Donald Trump a 57% chance of winning, the New York Times' Upshot fires back with its own analysis that shows Hillary Clinton with a 68% chance to be the next president. Its model "calculates win probabilities for each state," which incorporate recent polls plus "a state's past election results and national polling." Notably, all of the battleground states that "vote like the country as a whole" either lean toward Clinton or are toss-ups. None lean toward Trump.