Poll: What Are the Chances of Congress Overhauling Immigration This Year?

 Attendees hold signs calling for immigration reform during a rally in support of immigration reform, in Washington, on October 8, 2013.
National Journal
Michael Catalini, Sarah Mimms and Peter Bell
See more stories about...
Michael Catalini Sarah Mimms Peter Bell
June 12, 2014, 5 p.m.

On bal­ance, what are the chances that Con­gress will pass an over­haul of the im­mig­ra­tion sys­tem this year?*

DEMO­CRATS (93 VOTES)

Very likely: 0%
Some­what likely: 7%
Some­what un­likely: 26%
Very un­likely: 67%

Some­what un­likely

“Mes­sage to GOP on im­mig­ra­tion: No guts, no glory!”

“Lost op­por­tun­ity of the Con­gress; only a Hail Mary dur­ing the lame-duck ses­sion gets us to yes this year.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans might get mo­tiv­ated preelec­tion, but most of them are in safe, white dis­tricts. Don’t need those folks’ votes.”

“The fault line runs through the House Re­pub­lic­an caucus, and the odds slightly fa­vor those who want no ac­tion.”

Very un­likely

“The tea-party caucus in the House of Rep­res­ent­at­ives rules.”

“Im­mig­ra­tion re­form was on life sup­port, and Can­tor’s de­feat pulled the plug.”

“There seems to be little polit­ic­al im­petus for Re­pub­lic­ans at this point (on any­thing, not just im­mig­ra­tion).”

“House Re­pub­lic­ans won’t save them­selves from los­ing the next four pres­id­en­tial elec­tions.”

“No mat­ter what Boehner et al say, their right wing simply won’t tol­er­ate it. They’ve already writ­ten Lati­nos off for the midterms.”

“Can­tor.”

“It will take polit­ic­al guts for Re­pub­lic­ans to do what’s right — and there­fore it won’t hap­pen.”

“Neither side really wants re­form. The Demo­crats want to blame the Re­pub­lic­ans for not re­form­ing the sys­tem, and the Re­pub­lic­ans want cheap labor without the be­ne­fits of cit­izen­ship.”

“Same is true for 95 per­cent of all the oth­er is­sues fa­cing Con­gress.”

“Care for some tea with that de­port­a­tion pa­per?”

“See [cov­er­age] of the Vir­gin­ia con­gres­sion­al primary.”

On bal­ance, what are the chances that Con­gress will pass an over­haul of the im­mig­ra­tion sys­tem this year?*

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 0%
Some­what likely: 10%
Some­what un­likely: 25%
Very un­likely: 65%

Some­what likely

“GOP needs to take it off the table.”

“If Re­pub­lic­ans want to be cred­ible in the pres­id­en­tial race in ‘16, this is an open­ing bid.”

Some­what un­likely

“Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans are poised to gain seats in Novem­ber, and they aren’t go­ing to risk that by push­ing im­mig­ra­tion re­form.”

“Do we really want to go through a third pres­id­en­tial primary pro­cess risk­ing someone pan­der­ing on this is­sue? If Re­pub­lic­ans can’t get it done be­fore the elec­tion, take care of it dur­ing the lame duck.”

“Too easy to do noth­ing. They’re good at it.”

“No real ap­pet­ite on the Re­pub­lic­an side, and Dems would rather have the polit­ic­al is­sue than a bill.”

“There will be a ma­jor over­re­ac­tion to the Can­tor loss.”

Very un­likely

“This really was not what Eric Can­tor’s loss was about, but con­ven­tion­al wis­dom will hold oth­er­wise.”

“Why change a do-noth­ing strategy when it’s work­ing?”

“Can­tor loss sinks any chance, which was very slim.”

“If Re­pub­lic­ans ever fig­ure out how im­port­ant this is, they will do something, but the Demo­crats will not let them do any­thing.”

“Are there any pro­files in cour­age in the Sen­ate and House? Not in an elec­tion year.”

“Is that a pig I see fly­ing? Nope? Then I’ll say, ‘Very un­likely.’ “

*The ma­jor­ity of re­spond­ents answered this ques­tion be­fore Eric Can­tor’s primary loss.

… … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

On balance, what are the chances that Congress will pass an overhaul of the immigration system this year?*

DEMO­CRATS (93 VOTES)

Very likely: 0%
Some­what likely: 7%
Some­what un­likely: 26%
Very un­likely: 67%

Some­what un­likely

“Mes­sage to GOP on im­mig­ra­tion: No guts, no glory!”

“Lost op­por­tun­ity of the Con­gress; only a Hail Mary dur­ing the lame-duck ses­sion gets us to yes this year.”

“Re­pub­lic­ans might get mo­tiv­ated preelec­tion, but most of them are in safe, white dis­tricts. Don’t need those folks’ votes.”

“The fault line runs through the House Re­pub­lic­an caucus, and the odds slightly fa­vor those who want no ac­tion.”

Very un­likely

“The tea-party caucus in the House of Rep­res­ent­at­ives rules.”

“Im­mig­ra­tion re­form was on life sup­port, and Can­tor’s de­feat pulled the plug.”

“There seems to be little polit­ic­al im­petus for Re­pub­lic­ans at this point (on any­thing, not just im­mig­ra­tion).”

“House Re­pub­lic­ans won’t save them­selves from los­ing the next four pres­id­en­tial elec­tions.”

“No mat­ter what Boehner et al say, their right wing simply won’t tol­er­ate it. They’ve already writ­ten Lati­nos off for the midterms.”

“Can­tor.”

“It will take polit­ic­al guts for Re­pub­lic­ans to do what’s right — and there­fore it won’t hap­pen.”

“Neither side really wants re­form. The Demo­crats want to blame the Re­pub­lic­ans for not re­form­ing the sys­tem, and the Re­pub­lic­ans want cheap labor without the be­ne­fits of cit­izen­ship.”

“Same is true for 95 per­cent of all the oth­er is­sues fa­cing Con­gress.”

“Care for some tea with that de­port­a­tion pa­per?”

“See [cov­er­age] of the Vir­gin­ia con­gres­sion­al primary.”

On balance, what are the chances that Congress will pass an overhaul of the immigration system this year?*

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 0%
Some­what likely: 10%
Some­what un­likely: 25%
Very un­likely: 65%

Some­what likely

“GOP needs to take it off the table.”

“If Re­pub­lic­ans want to be cred­ible in the pres­id­en­tial race in ‘16, this is an open­ing bid.”

Some­what un­likely

“Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans are poised to gain seats in Novem­ber, and they aren’t go­ing to risk that by push­ing im­mig­ra­tion re­form.”

“Do we really want to go through a third pres­id­en­tial primary pro­cess risk­ing someone pan­der­ing on this is­sue? If Re­pub­lic­ans can’t get it done be­fore the elec­tion, take care of it dur­ing the lame duck.”

“Too easy to do noth­ing. They’re good at it.”

“No real ap­pet­ite on the Re­pub­lic­an side, and Dems would rather have the polit­ic­al is­sue than a bill.”

“There will be a ma­jor over­re­ac­tion to the Can­tor loss.”

Very un­likely

“This really was not what Eric Can­tor’s loss was about, but con­ven­tion­al wis­dom will hold oth­er­wise.”

“Why change a do-noth­ing strategy when it’s work­ing?”

“Can­tor loss sinks any chance, which was very slim.”

“If Re­pub­lic­ans ever fig­ure out how im­port­ant this is, they will do something, but the Demo­crats will not let them do any­thing.”

“Are there any pro­files in cour­age in the Sen­ate and House? Not in an elec­tion year.”

“Is that a pig I see fly­ing? Nope? Then I’ll say, ‘Very un­likely.’ “

*The ma­jor­ity of re­spond­ents answered this ques­tion be­fore Eric Can­tor’s primary loss.

… … … … .

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

What We're Following See More »
ON GUN RIGHTS
Trump Jr. Meeting with GOP Members
10 hours ago
THE LATEST
FLOPPY DISKS
US Nukes Rely on Decades-Old Tech
10 hours ago
THE DETAILS
CONTRARY TO REPORTS
Ryan Not Endorsing Trump Just Yet
14 hours ago
THE LATEST
OTHER SECRETARIES AT FAULT, TOO
State Dept. Review Faults Clinton Email Management
16 hours ago
THE LATEST

"A State Department audit has faulted Hillary Clinton and previous secretaries of state for poorly managing email and other computer information and slowly responding to new cybersecurity risks. ... It cites 'longstanding, systemic weaknesses' related to communications. These started before Clinton's appointment as secretary of state, but her failures were singled out as more serious."

Source:
CRUZ STILL TOOK DELEGATES AT THE CONVENTION
Trump Rolls in Washington Primary
16 hours ago
THE LATEST

Donald Trump "was on course to win more than three-quarters of the vote in Washington's primary" last night. Ted Cruz's defunct candidacy still pulled about 10 percent. "Cruz dropped out of the race on May 3, but won 40 of the state's 41 delegates up for grabs at last weekend's state GOP convention."

Source:
×