Political Insiders Poll

Poll: Can the State of the Union Boost Congressional Democrats?

Michael Catalini Sarah Mimms and Peter Bell
Jan. 23, 2014, 4 p.m.

On bal­ance, will Pres­id­ent Obama’s State of the Uni­on and 2014 agenda boost con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 45%
Hurt: 5%
Have no ef­fect: 50%

Help

“He can lay out the case for im­mig­ra­tion re­form and for min­im­um wage and oth­er ways to battle in­come in­equal­ity. Likely won’t pass Con­gress, but he can set up a clear con­trast with the Re­pub­lic­ans.”

“Rally the base, define a pos­it­ive agenda, and wait for someone to yell ‘li­ar!’ “

“Obama’s State of the Uni­on is yet an­oth­er op­por­tun­ity to look for­ward rather than be­ing de­fens­ive.”

Hurt

“He will go left be­cause that is what he be­lieves, and he has proven he doesn’t care about con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats. In fact, he seems to loathe con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats.”

“Off-year elec­tions tend to hurt the party in lead­er­ship. Only hope is the Sen­ate.”

No ef­fect

“State of the What?”

“If past prac­tice is any guide, it will be a good speech, but little fol­low-up.”

“The polit­ics are all loc­al on this one. He’s in­creas­ingly ir­rel­ev­ant and, ab­sent some for­eign-af­fairs suc­cess, will re­main so.”

“It’s every can­did­ate for them­selves in the Demo­crat­ic Party at this point.”

“No one pays at­ten­tion.”

“The Hill Demo­crats are firmly settled in­to a ‘go it alone’ strategy. Some­times by design and usu­ally by ne­ces­sity.”

“Un­less he can change the sub­ject from Obama­care, it is ir­rel­ev­ant.”

On bal­ance, will Pres­id­ent Obama’s State of the Uni­on and 2014 agenda boost con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (89 VOTES)

Help: 5%
Hurt: 20%
Have no ef­fect: 75%

Help

“He’s go­ing to try very hard to drive out the Left and de­mon­ize the GOP. That’s all he’s got, and it seemed to help him in 2012.”

“But only be­cause no one likes Con­gress, and this map is im­possible for House D’s to win. So it can’t pos­sibly get worse.”

Hurt

“Hi, folks, re­mem­ber me? I’m the guy who screwed up your health care, in­vaded your pri­vacy, and ruined our im­age abroad. Par­don me while I in­ter­rupt your prime-time view­ing with this in­fomer­cial that con­vinces you to aban­don my party in Novem­ber.”

“If Demo­crats want to run on in­come in­equal­ity, they’ll have to ex­plain what they plan to do. Amer­ic­ans have nev­er trus­ted re­dis­tri­bu­tion schemes.”

No ef­fect

“Ab­sent a crazy surge in the eco­nomy, opin­ions about Obama are pretty baked, and a speech won’t change them.”

“The pres­id­ent has lost his abil­ity to per­suade.”

“Obama is now a weakened lame duck.”

“No mat­ter how hard he tries, he will not be able to es­cape the dis­aster that is Obama­care.”

“Yawn.”

… … … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

On balance, will President Obama's State of the Union and 2014 agenda boost congressional Democrats?

DEMO­CRATS (88 VOTES)

Help: 45%
Hurt: 5%
Have no ef­fect: 50%

Help

“He can lay out the case for im­mig­ra­tion re­form and for min­im­um wage and oth­er ways to battle in­come in­equal­ity. Likely won’t pass Con­gress, but he can set up a clear con­trast with the Re­pub­lic­ans.”

“Rally the base, define a pos­it­ive agenda, and wait for someone to yell ‘li­ar!’ “

“Obama’s State of the Uni­on is yet an­oth­er op­por­tun­ity to look for­ward rather than be­ing de­fens­ive.”

Hurt

“He will go left be­cause that is what he be­lieves, and he has proven he doesn’t care about con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats. In fact, he seems to loathe con­gres­sion­al Demo­crats.”

“Off-year elec­tions tend to hurt the party in lead­er­ship. Only hope is the Sen­ate.”

No ef­fect

“State of the What?”

“If past prac­tice is any guide, it will be a good speech, but little fol­low-up.”

“The polit­ics are all loc­al on this one. He’s in­creas­ingly ir­rel­ev­ant and, ab­sent some for­eign-af­fairs suc­cess, will re­main so.”

“It’s every can­did­ate for them­selves in the Demo­crat­ic Party at this point.”

“No one pays at­ten­tion.”

“The Hill Demo­crats are firmly settled in­to a ‘go it alone’ strategy. Some­times by design and usu­ally by ne­ces­sity.”

“Un­less he can change the sub­ject from Obama­care, it is ir­rel­ev­ant.”

On balance, will President Obama's State of the Union and 2014 agenda boost congressional Democrats?

RE­PUB­LIC­ANS (89 VOTES)

Help: 5%
Hurt: 20%
Have no ef­fect: 75%

Help

“He’s go­ing to try very hard to drive out the Left and de­mon­ize the GOP. That’s all he’s got, and it seemed to help him in 2012.”

“But only be­cause no one likes Con­gress, and this map is im­possible for House D’s to win. So it can’t pos­sibly get worse.”

Hurt

“Hi, folks, re­mem­ber me? I’m the guy who screwed up your health care, in­vaded your pri­vacy, and ruined our im­age abroad. Par­don me while I in­ter­rupt your prime-time view­ing with this in­fomer­cial that con­vinces you to aban­don my party in Novem­ber.”

“If Demo­crats want to run on in­come in­equal­ity, they’ll have to ex­plain what they plan to do. Amer­ic­ans have nev­er trus­ted re­dis­tri­bu­tion schemes.”

No ef­fect

“Ab­sent a crazy surge in the eco­nomy, opin­ions about Obama are pretty baked, and a speech won’t change them.”

“The pres­id­ent has lost his abil­ity to per­suade.”

“Obama is now a weakened lame duck.”

“No mat­ter how hard he tries, he will not be able to es­cape the dis­aster that is Obama­care.”

“Yawn.”

… … … … … …

Demo­crat­ic Polit­ic­al In­siders Jill Alp­er, John An­za­lone, Brad Ban­non, Dave Beat­tie, Andy Bech­hoe­fer, Cor­nell Belch­er, Matt Ben­nett, Mitchell W. Ber­ger, Mike Ber­man, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brath­waite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brew­er, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bon­nie Camp­bell, Bill Car­rick, Guy Cecil, Mar­tin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Co­hen, Jerry Craw­ford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Daniel­son, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott De­Fife, Jim De­mers, Tad Dev­ine, Dav­id Di Mar­tino, Debbie Din­gell, Mon­ica Dix­on, Patrick Dor­ton, Pat Du­jakovich, An­ita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve El­men­d­orf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Fer­son, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Fo­ley, Jef­frey For­bes, Vin­cent Fril­lici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Mi­chael Gonza­lez, Joe Grand­mais­on, Anna Green­berg, Stan Green­berg, Pat Griffin, Larry Griso­lano, Mi­chael Gron­stal, Lisa Grove, Mar­cia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Har­poot­li­an, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hat­t­away, Mike Henry, Kar­en Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Har­old Ickes, Mar­cus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jard­ing, Jona­thon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kauf­man, Lisa Koun­toupes, Celinda Lake, Dav­id Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Le­hane, Jeff Link, Bob Malo­ney, Jim Man­ley, Steve Marchand, Jim Mar­gol­is, Paul Maslin, Keith Ma­son, Susan Mc­Cue, Ger­ald McEntee, Steve McMa­hon, Tom McMa­hon, Phil Mc­Namara, Dav­id Med­ina, Mi­chael Mee­han, Mark Mell­man, John Mer­rigan, Mi­chael Mon­roe, Steve Murphy, Janet Na­pol­it­ano, Dav­id Nas­sar, Mar­cia Nich­ols, John Nor­ris, Tom Ochs, Tom O’Don­nell, Jef­frey Peck, De­bora Pig­na­telli, Tony Podesta, Je­frey Pol­lock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Re­iley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ric­chetti, Will Robin­son, Steve Rosenth­al, Dav­id Rudd, Ry­an Rudom­in­er, John Ry­an, Mi­chael Sar­geant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shu­maker, Sean Sin­clair, Phil Sing­er, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thor­nell, Jef­frey Tram­mell, Ed Tur­l­ing­ton, Rick Wien­er, James Wil­li­ams, JoDee Win­ter­hof, Bri­an Wolff, Jon Young­dahl, and Jim Zo­gby.

GOP Polit­ic­al In­siders Dan Al­len, Stan An­der­son, Gary An­dres, Saul­i­us (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bain­wol, Bri­an Baker, Gary Bauer, Dav­id Beck­with, Paul Ben­necke, Clark Ben­son, Wayne Ber­man, Bri­an Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Bla­lock, Car­mine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bon­jean, Jeff Bu­ley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Carde­n­as, Danny Car­roll, Alex Cas­tel­lanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cic­coni, Jonath­an Col­le­gio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Cor­man, Scott Cot­ting­ton, Jay Cran­ford, Greg Crist, Di­ane Crookham-John­son, Fer­gus Cul­len, Tom Dav­is, Mike Den­nehy, Ken Duber­stein, Debi Durham, Sara Fa­gen, Frank Fahren­kopf, John Fee­hery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Ben­jamin Gins­berg, Dav­id Gir­ard-di­Carlo, Bill Green­er, Jonath­an Grella, Lanny Grif­fith, Janet Mullins Gris­som, Doug Gross, Todd Har­ris, Steve Hart, Chris­toph­er Healy, Ral­ph Hell­mann, Chris Hen­ick, Terry Holt, Dav­id Ian­nel­li, Ed Ingle, Jim In­no­cenzi, Clark Judge, Dav­id Keat­ing, Dav­id Ken­sing­er, Bob Kjel­lander, Ed Kut­ler, Chris La­Civ­ita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lom­bardo, Kev­in Mad­den, Joel Maiola, Gary Malo­ney, Dav­id Mar­in, Mary Matal­in, Dan Mat­toon, Bri­an Mc­Cor­mack, Mark McKin­non, Kyle Mc­Slar­row, Ken Mehl­man, Jim Mer­rill, Lisa Cam­ooso Miller, Tim Mor­ris­on, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nel­son, Neil Ne­w­house, Dav­id Nor­cross, Zi­ad Ojakli, Jack Oliv­er, Todd Olsen, Kev­in O’Neill, Con­nie Par­toy­an, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, Dav­id Rehr, Tom Reyn­olds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, Dav­id Roeder­er, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, An­drew Shore, Kev­in Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steep­er, Bob Steven­son, Terry Sul­li­van, Dav­id Tamasi, Eric Tan­en­blatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Tim­mons, War­ren Tomp­kins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Don­gen, Jan van Lo­huizen, Stew­art Ver­dery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee West­ine, Dave Win­ston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Mat­thew Zablud.

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