Ben Sasse (R) swept aside his challengers to take the Republican Senate nomination in Nebraska and Pete Ricketts (R) eked out the gubernatorial nomination, heralding change in the state’s top offices. Another primary result may have foreshadowed more change in the future: Rep. Lee Terry (R) is not looking secure in NE-02.
— Terry took just 53% in the GOP primary Tuesday night, running head-to-head against under-funded, little-noticed challenger Dan Frei (R). It’s the third successive primary Terry’s vote share has dipped. Over the last few terms, his congressional voting scores from a few groups like the Club for Growth and the American Conservative Union have also declined, though Terry’s standing with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, for example, has remained steady.
— Meanwhile, Democrats are closing in on his other side. Terry’s district has gotten more competitive in general elections, as President Obama highlighted by narrowly winning NE-02’s electoral vote in 2008. After winning his first four races with 60% or more, Terry has cleared 55% once in the last four generals, and he won by less than 2 percentage points in 2012.
— Present weakness begets future trouble. Some of the candidates and strategists watching anti-GOP incumbent challenges in ID-02 and TX-04 this year had been eyeing Rep. Mike Simpson‘s (R) and Rep. Ralph Hall‘s (R) primary underperformance for some time before making better-organized challenges in 2014. And while Democrats had some well-publicized recruiting issues in NE-02 last year, the next presidential year could be an enticing draw for a new challenger — assuming Terry’s fortunes don’t continue falling this November.
As Terry said last night, he won, and “that’s the major issue.” But his margins don’t have much more room to decline in victory, and they may be attracting future opponents.
— Scott Bland
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"Wikileaks published more than 8,000 documents purportedly taken from the Democratic National Committee Friday, just days before the start of the party's convention in Philadelphia. The documents included briefings on off-the-record fundraisers and candid photographs."
Hillary Clinton "is widely expected to announce her choice" of vice president "in an email to supporters while on a campaign swing in Florida on Friday afternoon." The consensus: it'll be Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, although Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack are also said to be in the running.
- A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton, 43%-42%, the fourth week in a row he's led the poll (one of the few poll in which he's led consistently of late).
- A Reuters/Ipsos survey shows Clinton leading 40%-36%. In a four-way race, she maintains her four-point lead, 39%-35%, with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein pulling 7% and 3%, respectively.
- And the LA Times/USC daily tracking poll shows a dead heat, with Trump ahead by about half a percentage point.