Despite Republican pessimism over a flawed nominee in this Tuesday’s closely-watched FL-13 special election between Alex Sink (D) and David Jolly (R), all indications are Tuesday’s bellwether contest should be a nailbiter.
— As of Sunday, Republicans hold a four-point (4,623 vote) lead over Democrats among early voters, which should comprise a majority of the electorate. The early GOP vote edge is smaller than the party’s advantages before the 2010 and 2012 FL-GOV and presidential elections, where Democrats prevailed within the district. But Republicans are expecting strong Election Day turnout, while hoping to capitalize on disaffection among independents and even some Democrats, too.
— The contest is proving to be a crucial test of whether Democrats can defend themselves from attacks over Obamacare and the president’s policies. FL-13 is one of the oldest CDs in the country, filled with plenty of seniors disaffected with the president. (Obama narrowly won with 50% in 2012.) A Sink victory would show that despite the tough environment Democrats face, they can prevail with a strong candidate and effective get-out-the-vote efforts. Sink was hit with ads attacking her support for Obamacare; her pivot calling for fixes over repeal is something we’ll be hearing from other vulnerable Democrats.
— Republicans are grousing about Jolly’s problems as a candidate, but his flaws were apparent from the outset. For a lobbyist, he didn’t leverage his connections into raising the money necessary for a nationally-watched campaign. His Washington ties didn’t help him bring in talented people to run his race, either. It’s a lesson of the importance of recruiting and backing electable candidates. But if Republicans can win despite a weak nominee, it’s a sign 2014 could be yet another wave election.
One wild card: the presence of Libertarian Lucas Overby on the ballot, who has polled in the mid single-digits. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) recorded a last-minute robocall to urge his supporters to back Jolly. If this race is as close as the early vote indicates, it’s plausible that the third-party candidate could play the role of spoiler.
— Josh Kraushaar
What We're Following See More »
Foreign Policy takes a look at the future of mining the estimated "100,000 near-Earth objects—including asteroids and comets—in the neighborhood of our planet. Some of these NEOs, as they’re called, are small. Others are substantial and potentially packed full of water and various important minerals, such as nickel, cobalt, and iron. One day, advocates believe, those objects will be tapped by variations on the equipment used in the coal mines of Kentucky or in the diamond mines of Africa. And for immense gain: According to industry experts, the contents of a single asteroid could be worth trillions of dollars." But the technology to get us there is only the first step. Experts say "a multinational body might emerge" to manage rights to NEOs, as well as a body of law, including an international court.
Not to be outdone by Jeffrey Goldberg's recent piece in The Atlantic about President Obama's foreign policy, the New York Times Magazine checks in with a longread on the president's economic legacy. In it, Obama is cognizant that the economic reality--73 straight months of growth--isn't matched by public perceptions. Some of that, he says, is due to a constant drumbeat from the right that "that denies any progress." But he also accepts some blame himself. “I mean, the truth of the matter is that if we had been able to more effectively communicate all the steps we had taken to the swing voter,” he said, “then we might have maintained a majority in the House or the Senate.”
Ronald Reagan's children and political allies took to the media and Twitter this week to chide funnyman Will Ferrell for his plans to play a dementia-addled Reagan in his second term in a new comedy entitled Reagan. In an open letter, Reagan's daughter Patti Davis tells Ferrell, who's also a producer on the movie, “Perhaps for your comedy you would like to visit some dementia facilities. I have—I didn’t find anything comedic there, and my hope would be that if you’re a decent human being, you wouldn’t either.” Michael Reagan, the president's son, tweeted, "What an Outrag....Alzheimers is not joke...It kills..You should be ashamed all of you." And former Rep. Joe Walsh called it an example of "Hollywood taking a shot at conservatives again."
In a sign that she’s ready to put a longer-than-expected primary battle behind her, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) is no longer going on the air in upcoming primary states. “Team Clinton hasn’t spent a single cent in … California, Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon and West Virginia, while” Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) “campaign has spent a little more than $1 million in those same states.” Meanwhile, Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Sanders’ "lone backer in the Senate, said the candidate should end his presidential campaign if he’s losing to Hillary Clinton after the primary season concludes in June, breaking sharply with the candidate who is vowing to take his insurgent bid to the party convention in Philadelphia.”
The team behind the bestselling "Clinton Cash"—author Peter Schweizer and Breitbart's Stephen Bannon—is turning the book into a movie that will have its U.S. premiere just before the Democratic National Convention this summer. The film will get its global debut "next month in Cannes, France, during the Cannes Film Festival. (The movie is not a part of the festival, but will be shown at a screening arranged for distributors)." Bloomberg has a trailer up, pointing out that it's "less Ken Burns than Jerry Bruckheimer, featuring blood-drenched money, radical madrassas, and ominous footage of the Clintons."