2013 is ending with a whimper on Capitol Hill. The Senate appears poised to advance the budget compromise on Tuesday, though getting 60 votes for cloture isn’t a cinch. Once the budget deal is cleared, there are lots of reasons why the next 11 months aren’t likely to be too active in Congress.
— Republicans — driven by the most conservative members of their caucus — took a stand during the government shutdown, and Democrats gained in most polls of the generic congressional ballot. Since then, the rocky rollout of the federal health care exchange has increased opposition to the controversial law, and Republicans have overtaken the Dems on the generic ballot, according to poll averages.
— That’s why the GOP is endeavoring to stay out of its own way. Compromises small in scope that avert confrontation — like the budget deal — are a good model for what Republicans might seek to do on the farm bill, for example. House Republicans understood that last week, when they voted — in much stronger numbers than their vote to end the shutdown in October — to approve the budget agreement. House Speaker John Boehner‘s strongly-worded rebuke of trouble-making conservative outside groups underscored the establishment’s frustration about the shutdown and their resolve not to botch this latest opportunity.
— There is still one, potentially major obstacle to the GOP’s prevent defense: the February debt-limit deadline. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) said Sunday Republicans would attempt to win concessions from Democrats in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. A fight over the debt limit introduces uncertainty — as would big, broad plans to overhaul the nation’s tax code and immigration laws.
At present, the trajectory of next year’s elections seems most closely tied to voters’ perceptions of the health care law and their opinions of President Obama‘s job performance. Unless those perceptions improve significantly, it’s unlikely Republicans will want to upset the apple cart before Election Day.
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Trump, in a statement: “Based on the fact that the Democratic nominating process is totally rigged and Crooked Hillary Clinton and Deborah Wasserman Schultz will not allow Bernie Sanders to win, and now that I am the presumptive Republican nominee, it seems inappropriate that I would debate the second place finisher. ... I will wait to debate the first place finisher in the Democratic Party, probably Crooked Hillary Clinton, or whoever it may be.”
"It's about time for unity," said UAW President Dennis Williams. "We're endorsing Hillary Clinton. She's gotten 3 million more votes than Bernie, a million more votes than Donald Trump. She's our nominee." He called Sanders "a great friend of the UAW" while saying Trump "does not support the economic security of UAW families." Some 28 percent of UAW members indicated their support for Trump in an internal survey.
"Donald Trump on Thursday reached the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination for president, completing an unlikely rise that has upended the political landscape and sets the stage for a bitter fall campaign. Trump was put over the top in the Associated Press delegate count by a small number of the party's unbound delegates who told the AP they would support him at the convention."
"Clinton and Bernie Sanders "are now devoting additional money to television advertising. A day after Sanders announced a new ad buy of less than $2 million in the state, Clinton announced her own television campaign. Ads featuring actor Morgan Freeman as well as labor leader and civil rights activist Dolores Huerta will air beginning on Fridayin Fresno, Sacramento, and Los Angeles media markets. Some ads will also target Latino voters and Asian American voters. The total value of the buy is about six figures according to the Clinton campaign." Meanwhile, a new poll shows Sanders within the margin of error, trailing Clinton 44%-46%.