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House GOP Runoffs in Ala., N.C.; New Polls in Colo., Mich.; Crossroads Provides Backup for Ernst House GOP Runoffs in Ala., N.C.; New Polls in Colo., Mich.; Crossroads...

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Hotline's Wake-Up Call!

House GOP Runoffs in Ala., N.C.; New Polls in Colo., Mich.; Crossroads Provides Backup for Ernst

July 15, 2014

Wake-Up Call! is Hotline's daily morning briefing on campaigns and elections. Click here to subscribe.

WHAT'S NEWS

  • Two safe-seat, House Republican runoff elections on tap tonight: In AL-06, Alabama Policy Institute co-founder Gary Palmer (R) and state Rep. Paul DeMarco (R) are vying to replace outgoing Rep. Spencer Bachus (R). In NC-06, Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger Jr. (R) faces Baptist pastor Mark Walker (R) in the race to replace retiring Rep. Howard Coble (R).
  • In IA SEN, American Crossroads (R) released a new TV ad highlighting Rep. Bruce Braley's (D) "farmer" comments while calling state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) "the better choice." The group is spending $415,000 to air the spot. (AP)
  • In CO SEN, Senate Majority PAC (D) launched a new TV ad casting Rep. Cory Gardner (R) as "too extreme" on abortion. (release) Sen. Mark Udall (D) raised $3.1 million and had $5.7 million cash on hand. (release)
  • In WV SEN, Sen. Eliazbeth Warren (D-MA) stumped for Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) on Monday, focusing much of her speech "on the need to fight back against Wall Street and on the student-loan interest-rate legislation she's championed." (National Journal) Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) was also in the state to campaign for Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), saying she will fight Obamacare and EPA regulations. (Charleston Gazette)
  • In AR SEN, Rep. Tom Cotton (R) raised $2.3 million in the second quarter. (release)
  • In GA SEN, philanthropist Michelle Nunn (D) raised $3.45 million in the second quarter. (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
  • In LA SEN, state Rep. Paul Hollis (R) "dropped out of the ... race." (New Orleans Times-Picayune)
  • In MT SEN, Rep. Steve Daines (R) "raised more than $1.4 million" in the second quarter and had $1.7 million cash on hand. (release)
  • In NH SEN, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) released a new TV ad saying "veterans deserve better than long waits for patient care." (release) Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) "headlined a fundraiser for ... Brown and the" NRSC in Boston on Monday. (Concord Monitor)
  • In TN SEN, conservative radio host Laura Ingraham "declared Monday that she's 'all in' for" state Rep. Joe Carr (R). (Chattanooga Times Free Press)
  • The SEIU launched a series of Spanish-language TV ads targeting Gardner, Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO), Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) and Rep. Joe Heck (R-NV) over congressional inaction on immigration reform. Another spot will air nationally "urging voters to reject Republicans at the ballot box." (release)
  • In AZ-02, 2012 nominee Martha McSally (R) raised $653,000 in the second quarter. (release)
  • In CA-52, Patriot Majority USA is out with a TV ad thanking Rep. Scott Peters (D) "for putting the middle class first." (Daily Kos)
  • In CO-06, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) raised $842,000 in the second quarter and had $2.7 million cash on hand. (release)
  • In GA-01, surgeon Bob Johnson (R) released a new TV ad attacking state Sen. Buddy Carter (R) as a "professional politician." (release)
  • In GA-10, Rep. Paul Broun (R) endorsed Baptist pastor Jody Hice (R). (Roll Call)
  • In GA-12, Patriot Majority USA is up with a TV ad praising Rep. John Barrow (D) for "opening doors to the middle class." (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
  • In IL-12, state Rep. Mike Bost (R) "raised more than $278,000 in the second quarter" and had $347,000 cash on hand. (The Hill)
  • In PA-06, Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello (R) raised $667,000 in the second quarter and had $810,000 cash on hand. (PoliticsPA)
  • In UT-04, 2012 nominee Mia Love (R) raised $731,000 in the second quarter and had $873,000 cash on hand. (UtahPolicy.com)
  • In CT GOV, Gov. Dan Malloy (D) released a new 60-second TV ad, his first of the race, touting his achievements in office. (release) State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney (R) is also out with a TV ad hitting Malloy and 2010 candidate Tom Foley (R) on taxes and spending. (New Haven Register)
  • Ready for Hillary "raised more than $2.5 million in the second quarter." (Politico)

NUMBER BRUNCHING

  • In CO SEN, a new NBC News/Marist poll of RVs, conducted July 7-10, shows Udall leading Gardner 48-41%. (release)
  • In MI SEN, the NBC/Marist poll finds Rep. Gary Peters (D) ahead of former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) 43-37%. (release)
  • In CO GOV, the NBC/Marist poll shows Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) leading former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R) 49-43%. (release)
  • In MI GOV, the NBC/Marist poll finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) ahead of former Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 46-44%. (release)

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

• As we mentioned in our Senate race rankings last month, there are big gaps between the different tiers of Senate races, which today's NBC-Marist polls reemphasize. Republicans like Cory Gardner and Terri Lynn Land (and Joni Ernst in Iowa) will absolutely compete for blue-state Senate seats, but their paths to victory are significantly narrower than those of red-state Republicans. -- Scott Bland

• Things are finally starting to go the way Joe Carr always imagined they would in Tennessee. The tea party insurgent challenging Sen. Lamar Alexander picked up two outside group endorsements, has a super PAC running ads on his behalf, and yesterday scored a nod from Laura Ingraham. But as Carr's most likely backers limp away from an extended contest in Mississippi, it's looking less likely that they'll have the resources or the energy to give this race much attention. -- Andrea Drusch

• As fundraising reports come in, no House race has better demonstrated the benefits of a cleared primary field than IA-03. Former state Sen. Staci Appel, who had no Democratic primary opponent, announced that she had $725,000 in cash at the end of the second quarter. Former congressional aide David Young, who unexpectedly won the drawn-out Republican nominating process, said he had $87,567. Young can consolidate support from Republicans and possibly attract help from outside groups, but considering his past fundraising numbers, he'll have a financial disadvantage throughout the race. -- Jack Fitzpatrick

• The Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary is looking more and more like a microcosm of the the splits within the national Democratic Party. Public employee unions are lining up behind Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, who is going after state Treasurer Gina Raimondo for her ties to Wall Street, and both candidates are seeking to use their blue-collar roots and personal stories to appeal to Hispanic and women voters. In a primary season that's offered lots of tests for the GOP's internal divide, Rhode Island offers a rare look into what issues and tactics separate Democrats. -- Karyn Bruggeman

 

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • "Data Trust — a privately operated entity backed by the" RNC "that maintains a master list of voter information nationwide — is rolling out a marquee technical upgrade that will allow Republican campaigns and their allies to share voter information with one another in real time. The new feature will let campaigns and approved outside groups not only access voter information anytime (with their own data software) but update it instantly, so others viewing the voter lists can see the information immediately." (National Journal)
  • "Hobbled IRS can't stem 'dark money' flow" (Center for Public Integrity)
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) "gave $250,000 to the super PAC supporting" Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) "in the primary battle he won by a wide margin last month." (Politico)
  • The Judicial Crisis Network is launching an online ad in Iowa accusing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) of appointing liberal judges to the state Supreme Court ahead of his visit to the Hawkeye State. (National Journal)
  • Vice President Biden and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) "are among speakers for the upcoming National Urban League Conference" in Cincinnati later this month. (AP)
  • "Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper will submit signatures Tuesday to put what could be one of the most dramatic startups ever on the ballot - a plan to divide California into six states." (San Francisco Chronicle)
  • 2012 MO SEN nominee Todd Akin (R) "compared his downfall ... to that of" former Sen. Joe McCarthy (R-WI). Akin: "I use McCarthy as an example of someone who was assassinated by the media, so he had no credibility." (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
  • The Michigan "Treasury Department has filed three tax liens against the" CIA "for failure to pay more than $20,000 in withholding tax on behalf of people it employs in Michigan." (Detroit Free Press)
  • "George W. Bush had partial knee replacement surgery over the weekend - this time on his left knee, just weeks after the similar procedure on his right. (CNN)
  • "Braley threatened litigation over chickens at Holiday Lake vacation home" (Iowa Republican)
  • Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) "made a very special visit to a constituent's sweet 16 birthday party last weekend, where one of the girls declared him her 'bae.'" (Business Insider)

PLAY OF THE DAY!

Something About Obama Seems ... 'Shady'

ROOSTER'S CROW

  • The House Republican Conference and House Democratic Caucus hold closed meetings. (9 a.m.)
  • The House and Senate both return at 10 a.m.
  • Attorney General Eric Holder delivers remarks at an event to celebrate the 50th Anniversary of the Civil Rights Act. (Howard University, 11:30 a.m.)
  • President Obama delivers remarks on the economy at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center in McLean, Va. (11:35 a.m.)
  • The American League takes on the National League in the MLB All-Star Game at Target Field in Minneapolis. (FOX, 8 p.m.)
  • Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) makes a guest appearance on the "Daily Show." (Comedy Central, 11:00 p.m.)
  • Have an event for us to highlight? Email us!

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • Rep. Rick Nolan (D-MN) went 32 years between House terms.
  • The winner is Mike Amery, and here's his Swizzle Challenge: "Who was the first senator elected after ratification of the 17th Amendment?" The 3rd correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"Staffer Uses White House List To Seek Votes For The Hill's '50 Most Beautiful' List" (BuzzFeed)

...CHASER

"Hey everyone! Come and see how good I look!" -- "Ron Burgundy" (Anchorman)

Adam Wollner, Editor

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