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NC SEN GOP Primary Hits Home Stretch; Shaheen Launches First NH SEN Ad; GOP Has Generic Ballot Edge NC SEN GOP Primary Hits Home Stretch; Shaheen Launches First NH SEN Ad...

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Hotline's Wake-Up Call!

NC SEN GOP Primary Hits Home Stretch; Shaheen Launches First NH SEN Ad; GOP Has Generic Ballot Edge

Wake-Up Call! is Hotline's daily morning briefing on campaigns and elections. Click here to subscribe.

WHAT'S NEWS

  • In NC SEN, the "Charlotte area will be the center of the state's political universe Monday as the three major Republican candidates ... focus their attention on voters here during the last full day of campaigning." (Charlotte Observer)
  • "North Carolina's early-voting period wrapped up Saturday. ... More people cast primary ballots in North Carolina during the 10-day voting period compared with the last midterm primary. ... Nearly 228,000 people voted in person through Friday. There were 17 early voting days in 2010." (AP)
  • In IA SEN, state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is out with a new TV ad in which she "rolls up on a Harley, pulls her purse from a saddlebag and loads up a handgun for some target practice." (Des Moines Register)
  • In KY SEN, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) "on Friday abruptly cancelled reservations for television advertising it had made" on Thursday. (Washington Post)
  • In NE SEN, the 60 Plus Association released a new TV ad "that features veterans attacking" former state Treasurer Shane Osborn (R) "as dishonest and deceitful. ... The $250,000 buy" began "on Saturday, and is set to run through May 12." (Roll Call)
  • Also in NE SEN, banker Sid Dinsdale (R) has loaned his ... campaign $1 million." (Nebraska Watchdog)
  • In NH SEN, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) launched her first TV ad as of the race, featuring "Dwight Clark, a Vietnam veteran from Keene, N.H., touting Shaheen's efforts to open up a veterans' clinic in his area." (The Hill)
  • In CA-17, the San Francisco Chronicle endorsed former Obama administration official Ro Khanna (D) over Rep. Mike Honda (D). (San Francisco Chronicle)
  • In FL-13, Marine Corps Reserve colonel Ed Jany "is officially running as an independent candidate with 'no party affiliation,' though his campaign was touted heavily on Friday by" the DCCC, "which recruited him." (Tampa Bay Times)
  • In GA-12, state Rep. Delvis Dutton (R) released a new TV ad saying he's "running against Congress." (release) Dutton, "his wife and his company owe more than $23,000 in property taxes ... from missed payments going back a decade." (Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
  • In MI-13, "Wayne County Clerk Cathy Garrett ... says she does not believe" Rep. John Conyers (D) "has enough valid signatures to qualify for the Aug. 5 primary ballot. ... . She added that her final determination should come before May 13, after an investigation has been completed." (Detroit Free Press)
  • In OH-14, attorney Michael Wager (D) is out with his first TV ad of the race, attacking Rep. David Joyce's (R) primary challenger, state Rep. Matt Lynch (R), as "too extreme for Ohio." (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
  • In NE GOV, the Omaha World-Herald endorsed Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) in the GOP primary. (Omaha World-Herald) Bruning also released a new TV ad saying 2006 SEN nominee Pete Ricketts's (R) plan "could put violent criminals ... back on the street." (Hotline reporting)
  • In PA GOV, the Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Treasurer Rob McCord (D) in the Democratic primary. (Philadelphia Inquirer)
  • Also in PA GOV, businessman Tom Wolf (D) released a new TV ad featuring his employees defending his record. (PoliticsPA) Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) is also out with a new TV ad accusing Wolf of forcing his company into debt and laying off hundreds of employees while personally profiting. (PoliticsPA) Meanwhile, McCord's latest TV ad attacks "the relationship between ... Wolf and 'admitted racist' York Mayor of 1969, Charlie Robertson." (PoliticsPA)

NUMBER BRUNCHING

  • According to a new Pew Research Center/USA Today poll of national RVs, conducted April 23-27, Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot 47-43%. (release)
  • The Pew poll also shows 44% of national adults approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 50% disapprove. (release)

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

• Don't miss the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's report on the growing polarization in the political hotbed of southeast Wisconsin, which is home to some of the most reliably Republican and Democratic counties in the country. Among the bevy of interesting findings: roughly six in ten voters in the metropolitan Milwaukee area lived in a neighborhood that was decided by at least 30 points in the 2012 presidential election, while just one in eight lived in a neighborhood decided by single digits. The stark blue-red divide between the city of Milwaukee and the surrounding suburbs will not only play a major role in shaping the Badger State's gubernatorial race this year, but the 2016 Senate and presidential elections as well. -- Adam Wollner

• News that Nebraska Senate candidate Sid Dinsdale has lent himself $1 million suggest the bank president thinks he has a real chance to make a late charge in the Nebraska Senate Republican primary -- a race heretofore dominated by a two-man contest between State Treasurer Shane Osborn and Midland University President Ben Sasse. Interestingly, allies of the front-running Sasse have started training their fire on Dinsdale, suggesting they now see him as the biggest threat to their favored candidate. Anyone else getting Deb Fischer flashbacks? -- Alex Roarty

• This morning's Pew/USA Today poll showing Republicans with a 4-point generic-ballot edge is already prompting talk of another GOP wave. But dig deeper into the numbers to find more troubling news for Democrats: 65 percent. That's the percentage of Americans who say they want the next president to pursue different policies than the ones sought by President Obama. For Hilary Clinton, numbers like those underscore why it's so rare for a one party to control the White House in three consecutive terms. -- Alex Roarty

• Friday's developments in the FL-13 race clearly demonstrate Democrats' strategy in the older, largely white district. After unceremoniously directing local NAACP chapter president Manuel Sykes away from the ballot, Democrats recruited former Republican Marine Corps veteran Ed Jany, who will run as an independent. If Alex Sink's strategy of branding herself as a fiscal conservative and gathering endorsements from local Republicans wasn't enough evidence, Jany's candidacy shows that Democrats don't think they can run too far to the left and expect to contend with Rep. David Jolly. -- Jack Fitzpatrick

 

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • Former Oklahoma House Speaker T.W. Shannon (R) will be the state's "first black senator if he wins the Republican nomination and is elected this November, but the quiet campaign stirring here about ... Shannon's racial loyalties is not aimed at the African-American branch of his family tree." Shannon "is a member of the Chickasaw Nation, the most influential tribe in a state where Native Americans are not merely the inheritors of a poignant history but also collectively constitute the state's largest nongovernment employer outside of Walmart." (New York Times)
  • "I go out of my way to avoid meeting candidates and politicians. ... Most of these people you meet, they're unemployable. ... It's just easier not to know." -- Republican super PAC donor John Jordan (National Journal)
  • "Unrequired reading: Many of the thousands of reports mandated by Congress will only gather dust" (Washington Post)
  • "Four years after Republicans grabbed their largest number of legislative seats since the Great Depression, the party is positioned to gain House and Senate majorities in more states. ... Control of five state Senates would swing to the GOP with a gain of no more than three seats, and the party is targeting four additional state legislative chambers, believing the political environment favors Republicans this year. The party already has full legislative control in 26 of the 50 states and holds 29 governorships heading into 2014 elections." (Wall Street Journal)
  • "To hear" former Rep. Marjorie Margolies (D-PA) "tell it, she essentially gave up her seat in Congress to cast a tiebreaking vote that saved President Bill Clinton's 1993 budget. But it is unclear whether the Clintons will be able to save her as she tries to win it back some 20 years later." (New York Times)
  • "As it woos the GOP, Las Vegas' anything-goes image isn't an asset" (Los Angeles Times)
  • "A group of wealthy liberal donors who helped bankroll the Center for American Progress and other major advocacy groups on the left is developing a new big-money strategy that could boost state-level Democratic candidates and mobilize core party voters. The plan ... seeks to give Democrats a stronger hand in the redrawing of district lines for state legislatures and the ... House." (Washington Post)
  • Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (R) "backed out of giving Rutgers University's commencement speech ... amid growing opposition among the school's students and faculty." (Newark Star-Ledger)
  • "At Derby Day With Murdoch, Rand Paul Goes Through His Paces" (New York Times)
  • Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) pledged to support former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) if she runs for president. (National Journal)
  • Former Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN), "a lion in northern Minnesota politics and the state's longest-serving congressman, died in his sleep early Saturday in his Maryland home. He was 79." (Minneapolis Star Tribune)
  • "The president challenging me on this is kind of irrelevant. That's not how I campaign. I look toward what Alaskans care about." -- Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK), on Obama's comments that Democrats should not be afraid to run on Obamacare (RealClearPolitics)
  • "Under federal investigation," former Rep. David Rivera (R) filed to run in FL-26 "on Thursday, chatting with fellow candidates in line while refusing to talk to the Miami Herald about his legal challenges. 'You can email me,' Rivera said repeatedly." (Miami Herald)

PLAY OF THE DAY!

Who were the Kings and Queens of #NerdProm?

ROOSTER'S CROW

  • Obama holds a bilateral meeting with President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti. (White House, 10:55 a.m.)
  • Vice President Biden attends a DCCC event in New York. (12 p.m.)
  • The Senate returns at 2 p.m.
  • Biden delivers remarks at the annual meeting the American Psychiatric Association in New York. (2 p.m.)
  • National Journal holds a webcast on "The Politics of 2014's Midterm Elections." (2:30 p.m.)
  • Obama hosts a Cinco de Mayo reception. (White House, 5:50 p.m.)
  • The Nationals open up a three-game series against the Dodgers. (Nationals Park, 7:05 p.m.)
  • Have an event for us to highlight? Email us!

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • Tagg, Meghan, Alexandra, Karenna, and George W. are all children of presidential candidates who lost in a general election.
  • The winner is Ben Gutman. Here's today's Swizzle Challenge: "Who was the first member of the House to be elected as a write-in candidate?" The 3rd correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"Sen. Al Franken says on Sunday show he was 'always a serious person'" (Minneapolis Star Tribune)

...CHASER

"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and dog-gone it, people like me." -- Franken, as "Stuart Smalley" on Saturday Night Live

Adam Wollner, Editor

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