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Job Growth Slowed in Sept.; DCCC Courting Business After Shutdown; Dems Lead Generic-Ballot Polls Job Growth Slowed in Sept.; DCCC Courting Business After Shutdown; Dem...

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Hotline's Wake-Up Call! / WAKE-UP CALL

Job Growth Slowed in Sept.; DCCC Courting Business After Shutdown; Dems Lead Generic-Ballot Polls

October 22, 2013

Wake-Up Call! is Hotline's daily morning briefing on campaigns and elections. Click here to subscribe.

WHAT'S NEWS

  • The U.S. added 148,000 jobs in September, "far fewer than expected. ... But there was some silver lining in the report, with the unemployment rate dropping a tenth of a percentage point" to 7.2%, "the lowest level since" Nov. 2008. (Reuters)
  • President Obama on Monday "offered 'no excuses' -- and little explanation -- for the computer bugs still frustrating Americans who are trying to enroll online for insurance plans at the center of his health care law." (AP)
  • HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius has agreed to testify before the House Energy and Commerce Committee next Wednesday. (Washington Post)
  • Two leaders of the DCCC on Monday "sent a letter to business leaders reminding them that House Democrats last week voted unanimously for legislation to raise the debt limit and avert potential default while a majority of House Republicans voted against it." (Wall Street Journal)
  • In VA GOV, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (I) Independence USA PAC "will drop $1.1 million on ads" for former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe (D). (Politico)
  • New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) "dropped his fight against gay marriage in New Jersey on Monday, framing the decision in a pragmatic way: No point in fighting a losing battle." (AP)
  • A new Quinnipiac University poll of New York City mayoral LVs, conducted Oct. 16-20, shows Public Advocate Bill de Blasio (D) leading former MTA chairman Joe Lhota (R), 68-24%. In the previous poll, conducted Sept. 25-Oct. 1, de Blasio led Lhota, 71-21%. (release)
  • A new WMUR-TV Granite State Poll of NH SEN LVs, conducted Oct. 7-16 by UNH Survey Center, shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leading former Rep. Charlie Bass (R), 51-34%, and former state Sen. Jim Rubens (R), 53-28%. (release)
  • In TN SEN, state Sen. Joe Carr (R) "is up with his first ad, a 30-second spot slamming" Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) "for ... including money for a Ohio River lock and dam in last week's budget package that ended the government shutdown." The Carr camp "says it is spending about $20,000 to run on Fox News in Tennessee." (Chattanooga Times Free Press)
  • Arizona state Rep. Adam Kwasman (R) announced Monday he will run in AZ-01, "setting up a primary contest with his party leader at the state Capitol," state House Speaker Andy Tobin (R). (Arizona Republic)
  • In AR-02, with Rep. Tim Griffin (R) stepping down on Monday, "Republicans and Democrats are promising the seat will be hotly contested." Former North Little Rock Mayor Patrick Hays (D) "said Monday that he's running" for the seat, and people "also are encouraging" banker French Hill (R) "to drop his state House race and instead run for Congress, his spokesman said." (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)
  • A new Strategies 360 (D) poll of Seattle mayoral LVs, conducted Oct. 14-16, shows state Sen. Ed Murray (D) leading Mayor Mike McGinn (D), 51-34%. (release)

NUMBER BRUNCHING

  • A new CNN/ORC International poll of national RVs, conducted Oct. 18-20, shows Democrats leading the 2014 House generic ballot, 50-42%. (release)
  • A new ABC News/Washington Post poll of national RVs, conducted Oct. 17-20, shows Democrats leading the generic ballot, 48-40%. In the previous poll, conducted May 16-19, Democrats also led, 48-40%. (release)

OUR CALL

Hotline editors weigh in on the stories that drive the day

• DCCC Chairman Steve Israel wasn't bluffing when he predicted a crop of House recruits jumping in as a result of the government shutdown. Dems are close to landing credible challengers in swing New Jersey seats against LoBiondo and Runyan, and for the late Bill Young's Florida district. As notable: They've also had success persuading recruits in Republican-leaning districts, like IN-02 (South Bend), NE-02 (Omaha) and AR-02 (Little Rock). With a new ABC/WaPo poll showing Dems holding an 8-point lead on the generic ballot, Dems have a fighting chance to contest the House -- at least if the boomlet lasts into 2014.

• The government shutdown had a particularly big impact on Ken Cuccinelli, who will find himself on a ballot just weeks after his party took a drubbing. That's why it was so notable Monday when Cuccinelli told reporters that he's now unsure of whether he would have voted to end the shutdown himself. But Cuccinelli's comments are indicative of a larger strategy. With just two weeks to go, Cuccinelli's team is shifting away from the middle and working to reinvigorate the base (he's held rallies with Mike Huckabee and Pam Bondi in the last few days), hoping to boost turnout among core Republicans as he continues to trail in polling.

 

HAIR OF THE DOG

FRESH BREWED BUZZ

  • Former Obama campaign aides Julianna Smoot and Paul Tewes have combined "to launch Smoot Tewes Group, a fully integrated political and public affairs consulting group." (Raleigh News & Observer)
  • "HE GAVE me the names of the people he wished wouldnt show up, that was just three and we both know i dont care about poltical correctness so i took it upon myself to honor his wishes." -- Beverly Young, widow of late Rep. Bill Young (R-FL), explaining in an email to a reporter why she has asked former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (D), 2012 FL-13 nominee Jessica Ehrlich (D) and 2010 FL-10 nominee Charlie Justice (D) not to attend Young's funeral this week (Tampa Bay Times)
  • Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) "told a national radio talk show host Sunday night that his recent heart condition would have been fatal in any other country because of the 'socialized medicine like Obama is trying to impose upon America.'" (Tulsa World)
  • "Lee Bandy, the genial, big-hearted political reporter who earned the title of dean of the South Carolina press corps, died Monday from complications of Parkinson's disease." (Columbia State)
  • "The Associated Press has dismissed" veteran Virginia political reporter Bob Lewis "and an editor based in Richmond over an error about ... McAuliffe in an Oct. 9 story." (Richmond Times-Dispatch)
  • On Monday, former Clinton special counsel Lanny Davis "snagged another high-profile client: New York Yankees slugger Alex Rodriguez, who is appealing a career-threatening 211-game suspension by Major League Baseball for using banned substances." (Washington Post)
  • "Mario Cuomo, Vocal Foe Of Italian Stereotyping, Finally Sees 'Godfather'" (New York Times)

PLAY OF THE DAY!

Obama's Technical Difficulties

ROOSTER'S CROW

  • Today's weather, from the National Weather Service: Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
  • The House returns at 2 p.m.
  • "The Waterboys" bring their brand of Celtic folk rock to D.C. (9:30 Club, 7 p.m.)
  • Al Gore appears on "Jimmy Kimmel Live." (WJLA-TV, 11:35 p.m.)
  • Have an event for us to highlight? Email us!

SWIZZLE CHALLENGE

  • Harry Brecheen was credited as the winning pitcher in three of the St. Louis Cardinals' four wins over Boston in the 1946 World Series.
  • The winner is John Fairbanks, and here's his Swizzle Challenge: "Today is the anniversary of the crisis that marked the turning point in the Cold War. What was it?" The 5th correct e-mailer gets to submit the next question.

NJ'S EARLY BIRD SPECIALS

SHOT...

"There is no doubt in my mind or in the minds of any of my campaign staff that the [government] shutdown cost me the election." -- NJ SEN Special nominee Steve Lonegan (R) (Newark Star-Ledger)

...CHASER

"Republicans need to hold firm because seven days from today when Bob Menendez escorts me down the Senate aisle for my swearing in, the message about what our party should do will be clear for all." -- Lonegan, the week before the election (TPM)

Josh Kraushaar, Editor-in-Chief

Steven Shepard, Executive Editor

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